在過去六個月中，比特幣（BTC）價格上漲了幾乎40％，而且很快可能會更高

在過去的六個月中，比特幣（BTC -1.00％）的價格近40％，而且很快可能會更高。這種趨勢不僅是資產價格隨機波動。

Bitcoin’s (BTC -1.00%) price is up almost 40% in the past six months, and it might be going even higher soon. This trend isn’t simply random fluctuation in the asset’s price. There are at least three things that are driving the coin’s surge. All are likely to continue, so let’s take a look at each.

在過去的六個月中，比特幣（BTC -1.00％）的價格近40％，而且很快可能會更高。這種趨勢不僅僅是資產價格隨機波動。至少有三件事推動了硬幣的激增。所有人都可能會繼續，所以讓我們看看每個人。

Many investors like to think that an asset’s value is determined by its fundamental attributes rather than the flighty emotions of our fellow investors. It’s a nice idea, and it underpins all financial models. But it’s bogus, especially when it comes to a high-profile asset like Bitcoin.

許多投資者喜歡認為資產的價值取決於其基本屬性，而不是我們的投資者的飛行情緒。這是一個好主意，它為所有財務模型提供了支持。但這是虛假的，尤其是在像比特幣這樣的備受矚目的資產方面。

Reflexivity is a finance theory that describes how an asset’s price and its fundamentals co-influence each other in a feedback loop: Investor beliefs move price, price movement alters fundamentals, and the altered fundamentals then validate or undermine the original beliefs, often amplifying the cycle. This loop works the most durably when the fundamental attributes of the investment are solid, otherwise the process would be a bit too close to a Ponzi scheme, which would deter investors rather than attracting them.

反思性是一種金融理論，描述了資產的價格及其基本面如何在反饋循環中相互影響：投資者信念在價格上漲，價格變動改變了基本面以及基本面的變化，然後驗證或破壞了原始信念，通常會擴大周期。當投資的基本屬性紮實時，該循環最持久的效果最持久，否則該過程將太接近龐氏騙局，這將阻止投資者而不是吸引投資者。

Bitcoin is reflexivity exemplified, largely because like all crypto it doesn’t have fundamentals for use in traditional valuation models. Instead, belief lifts its price, price attracts believers, they hold out and hope for even higher prices, and the self-fulfilling cycle continues. So one of the biggest reasons that Bitcoin is surging right now is that it was surging before. And one of the biggest reasons that it will continue to surge in the near term is that it’s surging now.

比特幣是反射性的例證，主要是因為像所有加密貨幣一樣，它沒有用於傳統評估模型的基本原理。取而代之的是，信念提高了價格，價格吸引了信徒，他們堅持並希望更高的價格，並且自我實現的周期仍在繼續。因此，比特幣現在飆升的最大原因之一是它以前正在飆升。它將在短期內繼續激增的最大原因之一是它正在激增。

Be aware that reflexivity works in reverse, too. The right sequence of bad economic catalysts or new regulations could send Bitcoin’s price cratering, and on a long enough timeline, it will happen at some point. That doesn't detract from the coin's long-term investment thesis, but it's a reason to purchase with caution when prices are rising rapidly.

請注意，反射性也相反。不良經濟催化劑或新法規的正確順序可能會發送比特幣的價格碎屑，並且在足夠長的時間表上，它將在某個時候發生。這不會損害硬幣的長期投資論文，但這是當價格迅速上漲時謹慎購買的原因。

Now is the heyday of global governmental Bitcoin policy.

現在是全球政府比特幣政策的鼎盛時期。

The Trump administration recently issued an executive order calling for the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Although it isn’t yet implemented and hasn’t been connected to any operational mechanics for doing so, if it is implemented as envisioned, it will make the U.S. into a major holder of Bitcoin simply by virtue of it being mandated to retain coins it obtains via asset forfeitures. And that will have a direct impact on the coin’s price over time, as it will mean that more and more supply will be held off of the market for an indefinite period, or at least until a new administration changes the policy.

特朗普政府最近發布了一項行政命令，呼籲創建戰略比特幣儲備。儘管它尚未實施，並且尚未與任何操作機制連接到這樣做，但如果它按照設想的設想實施，它將僅由於要求保留其通過資產沒收穫得的硬幣而使美國成為比特幣的主要持有人。隨著時間的流逝，這將對硬幣的價格產生直接影響，因為這意味著無限期的供應將越來越多，或者至少直到新政府改變政策為止。

Other nations like the Czech Republic, Russia, and Japan are studying, discussing, and considering implementing similar policies. Even if none of them do in the next couple of years, others are sure to follow in at least thinking about the issue, and some might end up doing it eventually.

捷克共和國，俄羅斯和日本等其他國家正在研究，討論和考慮實施類似的政策。即使在接下來的幾年中，他們都沒有做，但其他人一定會遵循至少考慮這個問題，有些人最終可能最終會這樣做。

Major players like China have yet to announce any changes to their plans, but have openly held discussions about what new policies might look like. Therefore many investors have started to interpret those possible (though not at all guaranteed) future policy changes as being powerful catalysts that are worthy of front-running by buying more Bitcoin now. It’s harder to envision an anti-crypto government in China today than it was just a few years ago.

像中國這樣的主要參與者尚未宣布其計劃的任何變化，但公開就新政策的外觀公開討論。因此，許多投資者已經開始解釋那些可能（儘管完全沒有保證）將來的政策變化為有力的催化劑，這些催化劑現在值得通過購買更多比特幣來進行領先。與幾年前相比，當今中國的反加密政府政府更難。

In short, the long winter of governments trying to ban Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is ending. That’s attracting a lot of institutional investors and other large buyers, as they’re keen to invest in an asset that’s seeing its largest single risk wither away, and it’s convincing smaller investors to buy in for the same reason.

簡而言之，試圖禁止比特幣和其他加密貨幣的政府漫長的冬季正在結束。這吸引了許多機構投資者和其他大型買家，因為他們熱衷於投資於一項資產，該資產看到其最大的單一風險降低了，並且令人信服的是出於相同的原因，較小的投資者可以購買。

On April 28, the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy announced that it had bought $1.4 billion of the coin during the prior week, bringing its total holdings to a mind-boggling sum of more than $52 billion. This wasn’t the first time it made a gargantuan purchase, and it won’t be the last. And it isn’t the only whale that’s accumulating coins right now.

4月28日，比特幣國庫公司戰略宣布，它在上一周購買了14億美元的硬幣，這使其總持股量超過520億美元。這不是它第一次進行巨大的購買，也不是最後一個。這並不是目前唯一積累硬幣的鯨魚。

In particular, companies are eagerly buying Bitcoin to hold it on their balance sheets. Megacap businesses like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other well-known players are now holders. While it’s true that the purchases made by those wielding large sums of capital might move Bitcoin’s price on a given day, the bigger implication is that they will prefer to retain their coins and then borrow fiat currency, using the value as collateral rather than selling it. So there won’t be as much supply of the coin for future buyers.

特別是，公司急切地購買比特幣以將其固定在資產負債表上。 Tesla（Nasdaq：TSLA）和其他知名球員等巨型業務現在是持有人。雖然確實，那些持有大量資本的人進行的購買可能會在特定日期將比特幣的價格提高，但更大的含義是，他們希望保留硬幣，然後藉用法定貨幣，將其用作抵押品而不是出售。因此，對於未來的買家來說，硬​​幣的供應不會太多。

And that will drive prices up in the future, just like it is right now.

就像現在一樣，這將在將來推動價格上漲。