比特幣（BTC）價格徘徊在$ 11萬美元以下，測試了一個長期的供應區

6月11日，比特幣[BTC]價格徘徊在不到11萬美元，測試了長期以來的供應區，在$ 109K至11.1萬美元之間。

Bitcoin’s price action continues to be a subject of interest among cryptocurrency traders and analysts. As the flagship cryptocurrency hovers just under $110,000, testing a long-standing supply zone between $109,000 and $111,000, it sparks discussion about the potential for further price increases.

比特幣的價格行動仍然是加密貨幣交易者和分析師中的興趣主題。隨著旗艦加密貨幣徘徊在$ 110,000的價格不到110,000美元，測試了長期以來的供應區，在109,000美元至111,000美元之間，它引發了有關進一步價格上漲的可能性的討論。

As this area previously capped Bitcoin’s rallies, new on-chain and technical signals suggest a stronger structural setup despite the decreased activity from whales and a dip in derivatives volume.

正如該區域以前限制了比特幣集會的那樣，儘管鯨魚的活性減少和衍生物量下降，但新的鍊和技術信號表明結構設置更強。

On the other hand, several indicators are approaching extreme levels, which might signal a pending change in the market trend.

另一方面，幾個指標正在接近極端水平，這可能表明市場趨勢正在發生待處理。

Testing a key supply zone

測試鑰匙供應區

After a significant rally in the first half of 2024, Bitcoin’s price has been testing the edges of a substantial supply zone, varying between $109,000 and $111,000.

在2024年上半年進行了重大集會之後，比特幣的價格已經測試了一個大量供應區的邊緣，在109,000美元至111,000美元之間變化。

This zone, marked by large sell-side orders during the 2021 bull market, capped the cryptocurrency’s price on several occasions in the past, making it a crucial level to watch.

該區域以2021年牛市的大量賣方訂單為特徵，過去幾次都限制了加密貨幣的價格，這是值得關注的關鍵水平。

However, recent on-chain and technical signals suggest that Bitcoin might be able to break through this resistance in the coming days or weeks, especially if momentum persists and if the macroeconomic environment remains supportive.

但是，最近的鏈上和技術信號表明，比特幣可能能夠在未來幾天或幾週內突破這種阻力，尤其是在勢頭持續以及宏觀經濟環境仍然支持的情況下。

Chart by TradingView

圖表by TradingView

As reported by CryptoQuant, Whale Inflows to Binance have dropped to cycle lows. Usually, during periods of peak euphoria, we observe a large influx of funds from whales, especially during market tops.

正如加密素養報導的那樣，鯨魚流向二體為循環低點。通常，在高峰時期，我們觀察到鯨魚的大量資金湧入，尤其是在市場頂部。

This cycle, however, seems to be unfolding differently.

但是，這個週期似乎在不同。

The report highlights that large holders appear to be more sidelined or accumulating quietly, suggesting that they are expecting more upside potential rather than rushing to take profits at the current price levels.

該報告強調，大型持有人似乎更加寬容或悄悄地積累，這表明他們期望有更多的上升潛力，而不是急於以當前的價格水平獲利。

"The prior peaks reached during this cycle show $5.3B to $8.45B in inflows, while the current behavior lower reflects stronger conviction from major market players," the report stated.

報告說：“在此週期中達到的先前峰值顯示出$ 5.3B至8.45B美元的流入，而當前的行為較低反映了主要市場參與者的堅定信念。”

"Thus, the restrained exchange activity may signal that the Bitcoin rally still has room to evolve despite the decreased activity from whales and a dip in derivatives volume."

“因此，受約束的交換活動可能表明，儘管鯨魚的活性減少和衍生物體積的傾角，比特幣集會仍然有進化的空間。”

The NVT Golden Cross dropped to 0.33—a level far below the 2.2 overbought threshold, suggesting BTC is not yet at a valuation extreme.

NVT黃金十字架降至0.33，遠低於2.2的過失閾值，這表明BTC尚未處於估值極端。

In previous cycles, higher NVT values coincided with overheated conditions, but the current reading implies price remains grounded in transaction activity.

在以前的周期中，較高的NVT值與過熱條件相吻合，但目前的閱讀意味著價格仍處於交易活動中。

This supports the case for further upside potential without the risk of a local top.

這支持了進一步上升潛力的情況，而沒有當地頂部的風險。

"On-chain valuation metrics are presenting a neutral-to-bullish environment for BTC price movements, potentially allowing the cryptocurrency to push through the current supply zone if momentum persists and if macroeconomic environment remains supportive," the report noted.

報告指出：“鏈上估值指標正在為BTC價格變動提供一個中性到面的環境，如果動量人物以及宏觀經濟環境仍然支持，則可能允許加密貨幣推動當前的供應區。”

The report also mentioned that BTC’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio has dropped by 25% to 795K, showing a short-term deviation from its scarcity-driven valuation model.

該報告還提到，BTC的股票流量比下降了25％，至795k，顯示出與稀缺驅動的估值模型的短期偏差。

However, the broader trend still supports long-term bullishness as post-halving supply remains low.

但是，由於備忘後供應仍然很低，因此更廣泛的趨勢仍然支持長期看漲。

"While this dip could reflect temporary circulation of coins or decreased demand for the cryptocurrency, it has not yet significantly altered the market structure," the report stated.

報告說：“儘管這種傾角可能反映了硬幣的暫時循環或對加密貨幣的需求減少，但尚未顯著改變市場結構。”

"This indicates that the narrative of scarcity remains relevant, although the short-term price direction might depend more on speculative flows and macro signals than on pure supply metrics."

“這表明稀缺性的敘述仍然相關，儘管短期價格方向可能更多地取決於投機性流量和宏觀信號，而不是純供應指標。”

Derivatives activity cools off

衍生品活動冷卻

Futures and Options activity has seen a significant decline, with BTC Futures volume dropping 29.68%, Options volume decreasing by 37%, and Open Interest slipping 2%.

期貨和期權活動的顯著下降，BTC期貨量下降了29.68％，期權量減少了37％，開放利息下跌了2％。

However, it's worth noting that Options OI saw a slight increase of 1.85%.

但是，值得注意的是，OI的選擇略有1.85％。

This signals a reduced speculative appetite—not a full retreat. Funding remained positive, with the OI-Weighted Funding Rate printing 0.0075%.

這標誌著降低的投機性食慾，而不是完整的撤退。資金仍然是陽性的，OI加權的資金打印率為0.0075％。

Naturally, this reflects a mild long bias without aggressive leverage.

自然，這反映出沒有積極槓桿的輕度長偏見。

Compared to previous cycles where overheated Funding Rates preceded reversals, current conditions look far more controlled.

與以前過熱的融資率逆轉之前的周期相比，當前情況看起來更加受控。

"The cryptocurrency market is transitioning into a less volatile phase, which might indicate that the current price trends are approaching their peak and a change in momentum could be expected in the upcoming days or weeks," the report said.

報告說：“加密貨幣市場正在轉變為波動較小的階段，這可能表明當前的價格趨勢正在接近其高峰，並且在接下來的幾天或幾週內可能會發生變化。”

Testing a key resistance level

測試關鍵阻力水平

Technically, BTC is testing the $109,000-$111,000 supply zone while remaining above a rising trendline.

從技術上講，BTC正在測試$ 109,000- $ 111,000的供應區，同時保持趨勢線的上升。

However, the Stochastic RSI is now above 93, which indicates overbought conditions and might signal some minor pullback or some sideways action before the continuation of the uptrend.

但是，隨機RSI現在高於93，這表明條件過高，並且可能在上升趨勢繼續前表明一些小回調或一些側向動作。

Despite some challenges, the upward trendline and metrics like low exchange inflows suggest a positive setup.

儘管面臨一些挑戰，但潮流和低交換流入等指標表明了積極的設置。

Breaking through this resistance is crucial for bulls to confirm the next move, but for now, they seem to be in control.

突破這種抵抗對於公牛確認下一步行動至關重要，但就目前而言，他們似乎已處於控制之中。