Bitcoin (BTC) Price Hovers Just Under $110K, Testing a Long-Standing Supply Zone

Bitcoin [BTC] price hovered just under $110K on the 11th of June, testing a long-standing supply zone between $109K and $111K.

Bitcoin’s price action continues to be a subject of interest among cryptocurrency traders and analysts. As the flagship cryptocurrency hovers just under $110,000, testing a long-standing supply zone between $109,000 and $111,000, it sparks discussion about the potential for further price increases.

As this area previously capped Bitcoin’s rallies, new on-chain and technical signals suggest a stronger structural setup despite the decreased activity from whales and a dip in derivatives volume.

On the other hand, several indicators are approaching extreme levels, which might signal a pending change in the market trend.

Testing a key supply zone

After a significant rally in the first half of 2024, Bitcoin’s price has been testing the edges of a substantial supply zone, varying between $109,000 and $111,000.

This zone, marked by large sell-side orders during the 2021 bull market, capped the cryptocurrency’s price on several occasions in the past, making it a crucial level to watch.

However, recent on-chain and technical signals suggest that Bitcoin might be able to break through this resistance in the coming days or weeks, especially if momentum persists and if the macroeconomic environment remains supportive.

Chart by TradingView

As reported by CryptoQuant, Whale Inflows to Binance have dropped to cycle lows. Usually, during periods of peak euphoria, we observe a large influx of funds from whales, especially during market tops.

This cycle, however, seems to be unfolding differently.

The report highlights that large holders appear to be more sidelined or accumulating quietly, suggesting that they are expecting more upside potential rather than rushing to take profits at the current price levels.

"The prior peaks reached during this cycle show $5.3B to $8.45B in inflows, while the current behavior lower reflects stronger conviction from major market players," the report stated.

"Thus, the restrained exchange activity may signal that the Bitcoin rally still has room to evolve despite the decreased activity from whales and a dip in derivatives volume."

The NVT Golden Cross dropped to 0.33—a level far below the 2.2 overbought threshold, suggesting BTC is not yet at a valuation extreme.

In previous cycles, higher NVT values coincided with overheated conditions, but the current reading implies price remains grounded in transaction activity.

This supports the case for further upside potential without the risk of a local top.

"On-chain valuation metrics are presenting a neutral-to-bullish environment for BTC price movements, potentially allowing the cryptocurrency to push through the current supply zone if momentum persists and if macroeconomic environment remains supportive," the report noted.

The report also mentioned that BTC’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio has dropped by 25% to 795K, showing a short-term deviation from its scarcity-driven valuation model.

However, the broader trend still supports long-term bullishness as post-halving supply remains low.

"While this dip could reflect temporary circulation of coins or decreased demand for the cryptocurrency, it has not yet significantly altered the market structure," the report stated.

"This indicates that the narrative of scarcity remains relevant, although the short-term price direction might depend more on speculative flows and macro signals than on pure supply metrics."

Derivatives activity cools off

Futures and Options activity has seen a significant decline, with BTC Futures volume dropping 29.68%, Options volume decreasing by 37%, and Open Interest slipping 2%.

However, it's worth noting that Options OI saw a slight increase of 1.85%.

This signals a reduced speculative appetite—not a full retreat. Funding remained positive, with the OI-Weighted Funding Rate printing 0.0075%.

Naturally, this reflects a mild long bias without aggressive leverage.

Compared to previous cycles where overheated Funding Rates preceded reversals, current conditions look far more controlled.

"The cryptocurrency market is transitioning into a less volatile phase, which might indicate that the current price trends are approaching their peak and a change in momentum could be expected in the upcoming days or weeks," the report said.

Testing a key resistance level

Technically, BTC is testing the $109,000-$111,000 supply zone while remaining above a rising trendline.

However, the Stochastic RSI is now above 93, which indicates overbought conditions and might signal some minor pullback or some sideways action before the continuation of the uptrend.

Despite some challenges, the upward trendline and metrics like low exchange inflows suggest a positive setup.

Breaking through this resistance is crucial for bulls to confirm the next move, but for now, they seem to be in control.