比特币（BTC）价格徘徊在$ 11万美元以下，测试了一个长期的供应区

6月11日，比特币[BTC]价格徘徊在不到11万美元，测试了长期以来的供应区，在$ 109K至11.1万美元之间。

Bitcoin’s price action continues to be a subject of interest among cryptocurrency traders and analysts. As the flagship cryptocurrency hovers just under $110,000, testing a long-standing supply zone between $109,000 and $111,000, it sparks discussion about the potential for further price increases.

比特币的价格行动仍然是加密货币交易者和分析师中的兴趣主题。随着旗舰加密货币徘徊在$ 110,000的价格不到110,000美元，测试了长期以来的供应区，在109,000美元至111,000美元之间，它引发了有关进一步价格上涨的可能性的讨论。

As this area previously capped Bitcoin’s rallies, new on-chain and technical signals suggest a stronger structural setup despite the decreased activity from whales and a dip in derivatives volume.

正如该区域以前限制了比特币集会的那样，尽管鲸鱼的活性减少和衍生物量下降，但新的链和技术信号表明结构设置更强。

On the other hand, several indicators are approaching extreme levels, which might signal a pending change in the market trend.

另一方面，几个指标正在接近极端水平，这可能表明市场趋势正在发生待处理。

Testing a key supply zone

测试钥匙供应区

After a significant rally in the first half of 2024, Bitcoin’s price has been testing the edges of a substantial supply zone, varying between $109,000 and $111,000.

在2024年上半年进行了重大集会之后，比特币的价格已经测试了一个大量供应区的边缘，在109,000美元至111,000美元之间变化。

This zone, marked by large sell-side orders during the 2021 bull market, capped the cryptocurrency’s price on several occasions in the past, making it a crucial level to watch.

该区域以2021年牛市的大量卖方订单为特征，过去几次都限制了加密货币的价格，这是值得关注的关键水平。

However, recent on-chain and technical signals suggest that Bitcoin might be able to break through this resistance in the coming days or weeks, especially if momentum persists and if the macroeconomic environment remains supportive.

但是，最近的链上和技术信号表明，比特币可能能够在未来几天或几周内突破这种阻力，尤其是在势头持续以及宏观经济环境仍然支持的情况下。

Chart by TradingView

图表by TradingView

As reported by CryptoQuant, Whale Inflows to Binance have dropped to cycle lows. Usually, during periods of peak euphoria, we observe a large influx of funds from whales, especially during market tops.

正如加密素养报道的那样，鲸鱼流向二体为循环低点。通常，在高峰时期，我们观察到鲸鱼的大量资金涌入，尤其是在市场顶部。

This cycle, however, seems to be unfolding differently.

但是，这个周期似乎在不同。

The report highlights that large holders appear to be more sidelined or accumulating quietly, suggesting that they are expecting more upside potential rather than rushing to take profits at the current price levels.

该报告强调，大型持有人似乎更加宽容或悄悄地积累，这表明他们期望有更多的上升潜力，而不是急于以当前的价格水平获利。

"The prior peaks reached during this cycle show $5.3B to $8.45B in inflows, while the current behavior lower reflects stronger conviction from major market players," the report stated.

报告说：“在此周期中达到的先前峰值显示出$ 5.3B至8.45B美元的流入，而当前的行为较低反映了主要市场参与者的坚定信念。”

"Thus, the restrained exchange activity may signal that the Bitcoin rally still has room to evolve despite the decreased activity from whales and a dip in derivatives volume."

“因此，受约束的交换活动可能表明，尽管鲸鱼的活性减少和衍生物体积的倾角，比特币集会仍然有进化的空间。”

The NVT Golden Cross dropped to 0.33—a level far below the 2.2 overbought threshold, suggesting BTC is not yet at a valuation extreme.

NVT黄金十字架降至0.33，远低于2.2的过失阈值，这表明BTC尚未处于估值极端。

In previous cycles, higher NVT values coincided with overheated conditions, but the current reading implies price remains grounded in transaction activity.

在以前的周期中，较高的NVT值与过热条件相吻合，但目前的阅读意味着价格仍处于交易活动中。

This supports the case for further upside potential without the risk of a local top.

这支持了进一步上升潜力的情况，而没有当地顶部的风险。

"On-chain valuation metrics are presenting a neutral-to-bullish environment for BTC price movements, potentially allowing the cryptocurrency to push through the current supply zone if momentum persists and if macroeconomic environment remains supportive," the report noted.

报告指出：“链上估值指标正在为BTC价格变动提供一个中性到面的环境，如果动量人物以及宏观经济环境仍然支持，则可能允许加密货币推动当前的供应区。”

The report also mentioned that BTC’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio has dropped by 25% to 795K, showing a short-term deviation from its scarcity-driven valuation model.

该报告还提到，BTC的股票流量比下降了25％，至795k，显示出与稀缺驱动的估值模型的短期偏差。

However, the broader trend still supports long-term bullishness as post-halving supply remains low.

但是，由于备忘后供应仍然很低，因此更广泛的趋势仍然支持长期看涨。

"While this dip could reflect temporary circulation of coins or decreased demand for the cryptocurrency, it has not yet significantly altered the market structure," the report stated.

报告说：“尽管这种倾角可能反映了硬币的暂时循环或对加密货币的需求减少，但尚未显着改变市场结构。”

"This indicates that the narrative of scarcity remains relevant, although the short-term price direction might depend more on speculative flows and macro signals than on pure supply metrics."

“这表明稀缺性的叙述仍然相关，尽管短期价格方向可能更多地取决于投机性流量和宏观信号，而不是纯供应指标。”

Derivatives activity cools off

衍生品活动冷却

Futures and Options activity has seen a significant decline, with BTC Futures volume dropping 29.68%, Options volume decreasing by 37%, and Open Interest slipping 2%.

期货和期权活动的显着下降，BTC期货量下降了29.68％，期权量减少了37％，开放利息下跌了2％。

However, it's worth noting that Options OI saw a slight increase of 1.85%.

但是，值得注意的是，OI的选择略有1.85％。

This signals a reduced speculative appetite—not a full retreat. Funding remained positive, with the OI-Weighted Funding Rate printing 0.0075%.

这标志着降低的投机性食欲，而不是完整的撤退。资金仍然是阳性的，OI加权的资金打印率为0.0075％。

Naturally, this reflects a mild long bias without aggressive leverage.

自然，这反映出没有积极杠杆的轻度长偏见。

Compared to previous cycles where overheated Funding Rates preceded reversals, current conditions look far more controlled.

与以前过热的融资率逆转之前的周期相比，当前情况看起来更加受控。

"The cryptocurrency market is transitioning into a less volatile phase, which might indicate that the current price trends are approaching their peak and a change in momentum could be expected in the upcoming days or weeks," the report said.

报告说：“加密货币市场正在转变为波动较小的阶段，这可能表明当前的价格趋势正在接近其高峰，并且在接下来的几天或几周内可能会发生变化。”

Testing a key resistance level

测试关键阻力水平

Technically, BTC is testing the $109,000-$111,000 supply zone while remaining above a rising trendline.

从技术上讲，BTC正在测试$ 109,000- $ 111,000的供应区，同时保持趋势线的上升。

However, the Stochastic RSI is now above 93, which indicates overbought conditions and might signal some minor pullback or some sideways action before the continuation of the uptrend.

但是，随机RSI现在高于93，这表明条件过高，并且可能在上升趋势继续前表明一些小回调或一些侧向动作。

Despite some challenges, the upward trendline and metrics like low exchange inflows suggest a positive setup.

尽管面临一些挑战，但潮流和低交换流入等指标表明了积极的设置。

Breaking through this resistance is crucial for bulls to confirm the next move, but for now, they seem to be in control.

突破这种抵抗对于公牛确认下一步行动至关重要，但就目前而言，他们似乎已处于控制之中。