Altcoin Season 2025拐角處嗎？關鍵指標表示潛在的突破

經過數年的表現不佳，Altcoin投資者可能很快就會感到救濟。根據Alphractal的最新分析，現在多個指標表明，新的Altcoin季節的狀況正在形成 - 2025年6月可以標誌著一個關鍵的轉折點。

The crypto market has witnessed several interesting developments in recent times, especially within the realm of altcoins. As several market indicators point towards a potential breakout for altcoins in June 2025, new analysis from Alphractal delves into the possibility of “Altcoin Season 2025.”

加密市場最近見證了幾個有趣的發展，尤其是在山寨幣領域。正如幾個市場指標指出了2025年6月的Altcoins的潛在突破時，Alphractal的新分析涉及“ 2025年Altcoin季節”的可能性。

The analysis begins by introducing the "Altcoin Season Index," a metric that tracks the percentage of altcoins that outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day period. This index provides critical insights into the broader market dynamics. According to historical observations, two distinct scenarios tend to trigger a breakout in altcoins.

該分析首先引入“ Altcoin季節指數”，該指標跟踪在90天期間超過比特幣的山寨幣百分比。該指數為更廣泛的市場動態提供了重要的見解。根據歷史觀察，兩種不同的情況往往會引發Altcoins的突破。

The first scenario occurs when the majority of altcoins, specifically 60% or more, move into positive territory against Bitcoin, signaling a sustained period of strength in altcoins relative to the leading cryptocurrency.

第一種情況發生在大多數AltCoins（特別是60％或更高）的大多數Altcoins轉向比特幣的正區域時，標誌著AltCoins在替代幣的強度時期相對於領先的加密貨幣。

The second scenario unfolds when the Altcoin Season Index experiences a breakout from the "Bitcoin-dominant zone," which is typically defined as a range between 20% and 30% of altcoins outperforming Bitcoin. A breakout from this zone signals a significant shift in momentum.

第二種情況是在AltCoin季節指數從“比特幣占主導地帶”中突破時，通常將其定義為AltCoins的20％至30％的範圍優於比特幣。該區域的突破表明動量發生了重大變化。

One compelling observation from Alphractal’s data: since 2022, every June has marked the beginning of an Altcoin Season.

從字母的數據中，一個引人注目的觀察結果是：自2022年以來，每年6月都標誌著Altcoin季節的開始。

With June 2025 now in progress, and the Altcoin Season Index emerging from the BTC-dominant zone, market watchers are on high alert.

隨著2025年6月的進展，BTC佔優勢區域的Altcoin季節指數正處於高度戒備狀態。

“It is still early, but June is also known for starting the season, and we have seen the season start in May only once in the past seven years. The last time it started in June was in 2022, and it continued for several months. At the moment, 23% of altcoins are winning against Bitcoin.”

“現在還早，但六月也以本賽季開始而聞名，我們已經在過去七年中看到了5月的一次賽季。它的最後一次始於6月，持續了幾個月。目前，AltCoins的23％正在與比特幣贏得勝利。”

Beyond price trends, other key metrics are used to identify a true Altcoin Season. These include changes in the total market cap of cryptocurrencies, trends in startup funding, especially in Web3, and the total value locked (TVL) in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols.

除了價格趨勢之外，其他關鍵指標還用於識別真正的Altcoin季節。其中包括加密貨幣的總市值的變化，啟動資金的趨勢，尤其是在Web3中的趨勢以及分散融資（DEFI）協議中的總價值鎖定（TVL）。

While the first quarter of 2025 saw $3.8 billion in Web3 startup funding — the highest since mid-2022 — Q2 experienced a steep drop, reaching the lowest point since 2019. This divergence suggests some caution. However, it’s interesting to note that the major altcoin boom in 2021 coincided with peak capital inflows into Web3 startups.

雖然2025年第一季度的Web3啟動資金（自2022年中期以來最高）的38億美元經歷了急劇下降，達到了自2019年以來的最低點。這種分歧表明有些謹慎。但是，有趣的是，2021年的主要Altcoin繁榮與峰值資本流入Web3初創公司相吻合。

Despite a slight decrease in the first half of 2025, the TVL in DeFi protocols remains at an all-time high, showcasing the potential for sustained growth in the decentralized finance sector.

儘管在2025年上半年略有下降，但DEFI方案中的TVL仍處於歷史最高水平，展示了分散的財務部門持續增長的潛力。

Although many investors may be focused on the lack of new all-time highs among older altcoins, broader data signals a moment of potential breakout for altcoins.

儘管許多投資者可能專注於較舊的Altcoins中缺乏新的歷史最高點，但更廣泛的數據標誌著AltCoins的潛在突破時刻。

With the Altcoin Season Index showing signs of rising out of the indecision territory and historical trends aligning with the current cycle, June 2025 could set the stage for a long-awaited surge in altcoin momentum.

隨著Altcoin季節指數顯示出從猶豫不決領域中升起的跡象，並且與當前週期相一致的歷史趨勢可能為期待已久的Altcoin勢頭增長奠定了基礎。

However, whether this will culminate in a full-blown Altcoin Season or just another short-lived rally remains to be seen as the signals are still in the early stages of alignment.

但是，無論這將在成熟的山寨幣季節達到高潮，還是只是另一個短暫的集會，尚待觀察，因為信號仍處於對齊的早期階段。