比特幣（BTC）價格將在反彈之前下跌低於平均成本基礎

1月份ETF推出後，比特幣在籃板前的平均成本基礎低於平均成本基礎。隨後在夏天進行更重要的投降

This analysis segment focuses on theوياتحدث بتكوين price in the context of relevant on-chain metrics, aiming to provide a broader perspective on market trends.

該分析部分側重於相關的鏈指標的背景下的價格，旨在為市場趨勢提供更廣泛的觀點。

In 2024, we witnessed bitcoin’s price action closely tracking the average cost basis. Post the ETF launch in January, bitcoin dipped below this level before rebounding. A more significant capitulation followed in the summer with the yen carry trade unwind, seeing bitcoin fall to $49,000. However, this support at the average cost basis was defended.

在2024年，我們目睹了比特幣的價格行動，以跟踪平均成本基礎。一月份的ETF發布發布後，比特幣在反彈之前下降到此水平以下。夏天，日元攜帶貿易放鬆的更為重要的投降，看到比特幣跌至49,000美元。但是，為平均成本基礎提供了這種支持。

In 2023, price action remained closely tied to the average cost basis during support levels. Only during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March did price briefly break below this critical on-chain indicator.

在2023年，價格行動與支持水平的平均成本基礎緊密相關。只有在三月份的矽谷銀行危機期間，價格才能短暫地突破此關鍵的鍊鍊指標。

Now, in contrast, by the depths of the 2018 bear market when bitcoin bottomed around $3,200, price at that point converged with the all-time realized price. This metric essentially aggregates the cost basis of all investors across cycles.

現在，相反，按2018年熊市的深度，當比特幣底部底部約3,200美元底部，當時的價格與歷史上實現的價格融合了。該指標實質上匯總了所有循環中所有投資者的成本基礎。

This long-term cost basis acts as a foundational support level in bear markets and gradually rises over time as new capital enters the market.

這個長期的成本基礎是熊市中的基礎支持水平，隨著新資本進入市場，隨著時間的流逝逐漸上升。

Point being, evaluating bitcoin solely by comparing cycle peaks, for example, from $69,000 in 2021 to just over $100,000 in 2025, misses the bigger picture.

要點是，僅通過比較週期峰來評估比特幣，例如，從2021年的69,000美元到2025年的100,000美元以上，錯過了更大的情況。

The more relevant insight is that the aggregate cost basis of all investors continues to climb, which in the long-term is a better indicator of the asset’s maturation and the increasing depth of capital committed to the network.

更相關的見解是，所有投資者的總成本基礎都在繼續攀升，從長遠來看，這是資產成熟和投入到網絡的資本深度的增長的更好指示。