比特币（BTC）价格将在反弹之前下跌低于平均成本基础

1月份ETF推出后，比特币在篮板前的平均成本基础低于平均成本基础。随后在夏天进行更重要的投降

This analysis segment focuses on theوياتحدث بتكوين price in the context of relevant on-chain metrics, aiming to provide a broader perspective on market trends.

该分析部分侧重于相关的链指标的背景下的价格，旨在为市场趋势提供更广泛的观点。

In 2024, we witnessed bitcoin’s price action closely tracking the average cost basis. Post the ETF launch in January, bitcoin dipped below this level before rebounding. A more significant capitulation followed in the summer with the yen carry trade unwind, seeing bitcoin fall to $49,000. However, this support at the average cost basis was defended.

在2024年，我们目睹了比特币的价格行动，以跟踪平均成本基础。一月份的ETF发布发布后，比特币在反弹之前下降到此水平以下。夏天，日元携带贸易放松的更为重要的投降，看到比特币跌至49,000美元。但是，为平均成本基础提供了这种支持。

In 2023, price action remained closely tied to the average cost basis during support levels. Only during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March did price briefly break below this critical on-chain indicator.

在2023年，价格行动与支持水平的平均成本基础紧密相关。只有在三月份的硅谷银行危机期间，价格才能短暂地突破此关键的链链指标。

Now, in contrast, by the depths of the 2018 bear market when bitcoin bottomed around $3,200, price at that point converged with the all-time realized price. This metric essentially aggregates the cost basis of all investors across cycles.

现在，相反，按2018年熊市的深度，当比特币底部底部约3,200美元底部，当时的价格与历史上实现的价格融合了。该指标实质上汇总了所有循环中所有投资者的成本基础。

This long-term cost basis acts as a foundational support level in bear markets and gradually rises over time as new capital enters the market.

这个长期的成本基础是熊市中的基础支持水平，随着新资本进入市场，随着时间的流逝逐渐上升。

Point being, evaluating bitcoin solely by comparing cycle peaks, for example, from $69,000 in 2021 to just over $100,000 in 2025, misses the bigger picture.

要点是，仅通过比较周期峰来评估比特币，例如，从2021年的69,000美元到2025年的100,000美元以上，错过了更大的情况。

The more relevant insight is that the aggregate cost basis of all investors continues to climb, which in the long-term is a better indicator of the asset’s maturation and the increasing depth of capital committed to the network.

更相关的见解是，所有投资者的总成本基础都在继续攀升，从长远来看，这是资产成熟和投入到网络的资本深度的增长的更好指示。