Bitcoin (BTC) Price Will Dip Below Average Cost Basis Before Rebounding

After the ETF launch in January, bitcoin dipped below the average cost basis before rebounding. A more significant capitulation followed in the summer

This analysis segment focuses on theوياتحدث بتكوين price in the context of relevant on-chain metrics, aiming to provide a broader perspective on market trends.

In 2024, we witnessed bitcoin’s price action closely tracking the average cost basis. Post the ETF launch in January, bitcoin dipped below this level before rebounding. A more significant capitulation followed in the summer with the yen carry trade unwind, seeing bitcoin fall to $49,000. However, this support at the average cost basis was defended.

In 2023, price action remained closely tied to the average cost basis during support levels. Only during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March did price briefly break below this critical on-chain indicator.

Now, in contrast, by the depths of the 2018 bear market when bitcoin bottomed around $3,200, price at that point converged with the all-time realized price. This metric essentially aggregates the cost basis of all investors across cycles.

This long-term cost basis acts as a foundational support level in bear markets and gradually rises over time as new capital enters the market.

Point being, evaluating bitcoin solely by comparing cycle peaks, for example, from $69,000 in 2021 to just over $100,000 in 2025, misses the bigger picture.

The more relevant insight is that the aggregate cost basis of all investors continues to climb, which in the long-term is a better indicator of the asset’s maturation and the increasing depth of capital committed to the network.