比特幣（BTC）價格調整：最糟糕的時期已經過去了嗎？

為了回答這個問題，BeInCrypto 研究了多次被認為對 BTC 至關重要的關鍵指標。其中之一是市場價值與已實現價值 (MVRV) 比率。

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped from a high of nearly $58,000 on August 5 to a low of $49,000 on August 6. This price correction, which occurred over a span of two days, was the largest one-day drop in BTC price since March.

比特幣（BTC）價格從 8 月 5 日近 58,000 美元的高點跌至 8 月 6 日 49,000 美元的低點。

However, despite the magnitude of the drop, on-chain data suggests that it may not have been the worst one-day correction that BTC has experienced.

然而，儘管下跌幅度很大，但鏈上數據表明，這可能並不是 BTC 經歷過的最嚴重的一日調整。

One metric that provides insight into the profitability of the market is the MVRV ratio, which compares the market value to the realized value. A high ratio indicates a good level of unrealized gains among Bitcoin holders, suggesting a higher probability of selling. Conversely, a low ratio indicates lower profits and a reduced likelihood of selling.

MVRV 比率是洞察市場獲利能力的指標，它將市場價值與實現價值進行比較。高比率表示比特幣持有者的未實現收益水準較高，表示出售的可能性較高。相反，較低的比率表示利潤較低且出售的可能性較低。

Historically, this metric has also indicated when Bitcoin is undervalued, overvalued, and close to the peak of the cycle. At press time, data from IntoTheBlock showed that the MVRV ratio stood at 1.76.

從歷史上看，該指標還表明比特幣何時被低估、被高估以及接近週期的峰值。截至發稿，IntoTheBlock 數據顯示 MVRV 比率為 1.76。

In previous cycles, the ratio has reached a higher reading, at which point the bull market can be termed “over.” However, despite BTC’s impressive price performance up to a point, the metric suggests that the price has not yet reached its peak.

在先前的周期中，該比率已達到較高讀數，此時牛市可以稱為「結束」。然而，儘管 BTC 在某種程度上的價格表現令人印象深刻，但該指標表示價格尚未達到頂峰。

Putting it into context, Juan Pellicer, Senior Researcher at IntoTheBlock, explained to BeInCrypto that BTC, like other cryptocurrencies, is yet to reach an overvalued point.

IntoTheBlock 資深研究員 Juan Pellicer 向 BeInCrypto 解釋說，與其他加密貨幣一樣，BTC 尚未達到被高估的程度。

“Most assets have yet to approach their historic overvaluation ranges. For example, Bitcoin’s highest MVRV this year peaked at around 2.64, whereas in the previous cycle, it reached as high as 3.68. For many altcoins, the difference is even larger,” Pellicer told BeInCrypto

「大多數資產尚未接近其歷史高估範圍。例如，比特幣今年最高的 MVRV 峰值約為 2.64，而上一個週期則高達 3.68。對於許多山寨幣來說，差異甚至更大。

Based on this comment and the historical analysis above, BTC’s recent drop is likely a discount. At press time, the coin trades at $57,255. This price puts it still 22.37% down from the all-time high (ATH) it reached in March.

根據這一評論和上述歷史分析，BTC 最近的下跌很可能是折扣。截至發稿時，該代幣的交易價格為 57,255 美元。這一價格仍比 3 月達到的歷史高點 (ATH) 低 22.37%。

It is worth noting that institutional investors were the main driver of the rally to a new ATH through the Bitcoin ETFs. It is also important to mention that once the ETF netflow began to dry up, BTC price faced a notable decline.

值得注意的是，機構投資者是透過比特幣 ETF 上漲至新 ATH 的主要推動力。值得一提的是，一旦ETF淨流開始枯竭，BTC價格就會出現明顯下跌。

In fact, amid the flash crash on August 5, netflows of the ETFs were negative. However, recent data shows that this may no longer be the case. This is because of the $45 million total daily netflow recorded on August 7.

事實上，在 8 月 5 日的閃崩期間，ETF 的淨流量為負值。然而，最近的數據顯示，情況可能不再如此。這是因為 8 月 7 日記錄的每日總淨流量為 4,500 萬美元。

When compared to previous net positive flows, this is a low figure. At the same time, it could serve as the beginning of Bitcoin’s price stability, provided it is sustained.

與之前的淨正流量相比，這是一個較低的數字。同時，如果比特幣價格能夠持續穩定，它可以成為比特幣價格穩定的開始。

Should this be the case, this worst could be over for BTC, and the price may not drop below $50,000 again for a while.

如果是這樣，那麼 BTC 最壞的情況可能已經過去，價格可能在一段時間內不會再次跌破 50,000 美元。

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s potential does not lie solely in the capital these institutions have. Recall that, in previous bull markets, the coin did not have this kind of institutional adoption.

此外，比特幣的潛力不僅在於這些機構擁有的資本。回想一下，在之前的多頭市場中，該幣並沒有這種機構採用。

However, the coin has not experienced anything close to the kind of retail participation it had in the 2017 and 2021 market boom. During our conversation, Pellicer also weighed in on this, saying that:

然而，該代幣並未經歷過像 2017 年和 2021 年市場繁榮時期那樣的散戶參與。在我們的談話中，佩利瑟也對此做出了評價，他說：

“The number of active addresses on Bitcoin has been trending down since November 2023. This is typically a bearish sign for the entire market, as new participants in the Bitcoin market can serve as a proxy for new entrants to the industry.”

“自 2023 年 11 月以來，比特幣的活躍地址數量一直呈下降趨勢。這對整個市場來說通常是一個看跌信號，因為比特幣市場的新參與者可以作為該行業新進入者的代表。”

On several occasions, BeInCrypto noticed that a good level of retail interaction with BTC begins when the number of active addresses is over one million. But, according to Santiment, the metric has struggled to reach this region since March.

BeInCrypto 多次注意到，當活躍地址數量超過 100 萬時，與 BTC 的良好零售互動就開始了。但據 Santiment 稱，自 3 月以來，該指標一直難以達到該地區。

However, on-chain shows an uptick in active addresses as it notched 717,000 at press time. If this metric continues to jump, then BTC’s price may slowly move upwards, erasing the chunk of losses it has had in recent times.

然而，鏈上活躍地址數量有所增加，截至發稿時已達到 717,000 個。如果這個指標繼續上漲，那麼比特幣的價格可能會緩慢上漲，抹去最近的大部分損失。

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin may not experience such a massive price drop in the short term. This is because of the signals shown by the Balance of Power (BoP), a technical tool used to measure the strength of buying and selling in the market.

從技術面來看，比特幣短期內可能不會出現如此大幅度的跌幅。這是因為力量平衡（BoP）所顯示的訊號，這是一種用於衡量市場買賣強度的技術工具。

If it is negative, it means selling pressure is intense. However, at press time, it is positive, indicating that market participants are buying the coin. If this continues, BTC may note an uptick that may cost close to $60,000.

如果為負數，則表示拋售壓力很大。然而，截至發稿時，這是積極的，表明市場參與者正在購買該代幣。如果這種情況持續下去，BTC 可能會上漲至接近 6 萬美元。

Additionally, the Bollinger Bands (BB) provide insight into the volatility around the coin. In simple terms, the BB shows how rapid price fluctuations may occur and tells if a coin is overbought or oversold.

此外，布林線（BB）可以讓您深入了解代幣的波動性。簡而言之，BB 線顯示了價格波動的速度，並判斷代幣是否超買或超賣。

When the indicator’s upper band hits the price, it is overbought. But

當指標的上限觸及價格時，即為超買。但