比特币（BTC）价格调整：最糟糕的时期已经过去了吗？

为了回答这个问题，BeInCrypto 研究了多次被认为对 BTC 至关重要的关键指标。其中之一是市场价值与已实现价值 (MVRV) 比率。

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped from a high of nearly $58,000 on August 5 to a low of $49,000 on August 6. This price correction, which occurred over a span of two days, was the largest one-day drop in BTC price since March.

比特币（BTC）价格从 8 月 5 日近 58,000 美元的高点跌至 8 月 6 日 49,000 美元的低点。这次价格调整持续了两天，是 3 月份以来 BTC 价格最大单日跌幅。

However, despite the magnitude of the drop, on-chain data suggests that it may not have been the worst one-day correction that BTC has experienced.

然而，尽管下跌幅度很大，但链上数据表明，这可能并不是 BTC 经历过的最严重的一日调整。

One metric that provides insight into the profitability of the market is the MVRV ratio, which compares the market value to the realized value. A high ratio indicates a good level of unrealized gains among Bitcoin holders, suggesting a higher probability of selling. Conversely, a low ratio indicates lower profits and a reduced likelihood of selling.

MVRV 比率是洞察市场盈利能力的一项指标，它将市场价值与实现价值进行比较。高比率表明比特币持有者的未实现收益水平较高，表明出售的可能性较高。相反，较低的比率表明利润较低且出售的可能性较低。

Historically, this metric has also indicated when Bitcoin is undervalued, overvalued, and close to the peak of the cycle. At press time, data from IntoTheBlock showed that the MVRV ratio stood at 1.76.

从历史上看，该指标还表明比特币何时被低估、被高估以及接近周期的峰值。截至发稿，IntoTheBlock 数据显示 MVRV 比率为 1.76。

In previous cycles, the ratio has reached a higher reading, at which point the bull market can be termed “over.” However, despite BTC’s impressive price performance up to a point, the metric suggests that the price has not yet reached its peak.

在之前的周期中，该比率已达到较高读数，此时牛市可以称为“结束”。然而，尽管 BTC 在某种程度上的价格表现令人印象深刻，但该指标表​​明价格尚未达到顶峰。

Putting it into context, Juan Pellicer, Senior Researcher at IntoTheBlock, explained to BeInCrypto that BTC, like other cryptocurrencies, is yet to reach an overvalued point.

IntoTheBlock 高级研究员 Juan Pellicer 向 BeInCrypto 解释说，与其他加密货币一样，BTC 尚未达到被高估的程度。

“Most assets have yet to approach their historic overvaluation ranges. For example, Bitcoin’s highest MVRV this year peaked at around 2.64, whereas in the previous cycle, it reached as high as 3.68. For many altcoins, the difference is even larger,” Pellicer told BeInCrypto

“大多数资产尚未接近其历史高估范围。例如，比特币今年最高的 MVRV 峰值约为 2.64，而上一周期则高达 3.68。对于许多山寨币来说，差异甚至更大。”Pellicer 告诉 BeInCrypto

Based on this comment and the historical analysis above, BTC’s recent drop is likely a discount. At press time, the coin trades at $57,255. This price puts it still 22.37% down from the all-time high (ATH) it reached in March.

根据这一评论和上述历史分析，BTC 最近的下跌很可能是折扣。截至发稿时，该代币的交易价格为 57,255 美元。这一价格仍比 3 月份达到的历史高点 (ATH) 低 22.37%。

It is worth noting that institutional investors were the main driver of the rally to a new ATH through the Bitcoin ETFs. It is also important to mention that once the ETF netflow began to dry up, BTC price faced a notable decline.

值得注意的是，机构投资者是通过比特币 ETF 上涨至新 ATH 的主要推动力。值得一提的是，一旦ETF净流开始枯竭，BTC价格就会出现明显下跌。

In fact, amid the flash crash on August 5, netflows of the ETFs were negative. However, recent data shows that this may no longer be the case. This is because of the $45 million total daily netflow recorded on August 7.

事实上，在 8 月 5 日的闪崩期间，ETF 的净流量为负值。然而，最近的数据显示，情况可能不再如此。这是因为 8 月 7 日记录的每日总净流量为 4500 万美元。

When compared to previous net positive flows, this is a low figure. At the same time, it could serve as the beginning of Bitcoin’s price stability, provided it is sustained.

与之前的净正流量相比，这是一个较低的数字。与此同时，如果比特币价格能够持续稳定，它可以成为比特币价格稳定的开始。

Should this be the case, this worst could be over for BTC, and the price may not drop below $50,000 again for a while.

如果真是这样，那么 BTC 最坏的情况可能已经过去，价格可能在一段时间内不会再次跌破 50,000 美元。

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s potential does not lie solely in the capital these institutions have. Recall that, in previous bull markets, the coin did not have this kind of institutional adoption.

此外，比特币的潜力不仅仅在于这些机构拥有的资本。回想一下，在之前的牛市中，该币并没有这种机构采用。

However, the coin has not experienced anything close to the kind of retail participation it had in the 2017 and 2021 market boom. During our conversation, Pellicer also weighed in on this, saying that:

然而，该代币并未经历过像 2017 年和 2021 年市场繁荣时期那样的散户参与。在我们的谈话中，佩利瑟也对此做出了评价，他说：

“The number of active addresses on Bitcoin has been trending down since November 2023. This is typically a bearish sign for the entire market, as new participants in the Bitcoin market can serve as a proxy for new entrants to the industry.”

“自 2023 年 11 月以来，比特币的活跃地址数量一直呈下降趋势。这对整个市场来说通常是一个看跌信号，因为比特币市场的新参与者可以作为该行业新进入者的代表。”

On several occasions, BeInCrypto noticed that a good level of retail interaction with BTC begins when the number of active addresses is over one million. But, according to Santiment, the metric has struggled to reach this region since March.

BeInCrypto 多次注意到，当活跃地址数量超过 100 万时，与 BTC 的良好零售互动就开始了。但据 Santiment 称，自 3 月份以来，该指标一直难以达到该地区。

However, on-chain shows an uptick in active addresses as it notched 717,000 at press time. If this metric continues to jump, then BTC’s price may slowly move upwards, erasing the chunk of losses it has had in recent times.

然而，链上活跃地址数量有所增加，截至发稿时已达到 717,000 个。如果这个指标继续上涨，那么比特币的价格可能会缓慢上涨，抹去最近的大部分损失。

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin may not experience such a massive price drop in the short term. This is because of the signals shown by the Balance of Power (BoP), a technical tool used to measure the strength of buying and selling in the market.

从技术角度来看，比特币短期内可能不会出现如此大幅度的跌幅。这是因为力量平衡（BoP）所显示的信号，这是一种用于衡量市场买卖强度的技术工具。

If it is negative, it means selling pressure is intense. However, at press time, it is positive, indicating that market participants are buying the coin. If this continues, BTC may note an uptick that may cost close to $60,000.

如果为负数，则意味着抛售压力很大。然而，截至发稿时，这是积极的，表明市场参与者正在购买该代币。如果这种情况持续下去，BTC 可能会上涨至接近 60,000 美元。

Additionally, the Bollinger Bands (BB) provide insight into the volatility around the coin. In simple terms, the BB shows how rapid price fluctuations may occur and tells if a coin is overbought or oversold.

此外，布林线（BB）可以让您深入了解代币的波动性。简而言之，BB 线显示了价格波动的速度，并判断代币是否超买或超卖。

When the indicator’s upper band hits the price, it is overbought. But

当指标的上限触及价格时，即为超买。但