比特幣（BTC）的價格持續上漲，即使交易量下降到最低水平

比特幣OnChain數據顯示了交換和OTC餘額的穩定消耗，指出了長期積累和收緊供應。

Key takeaways:

關鍵要點：

Onchain data shows a steady depletion of exchange and OTC balances, signaling long-term accumulation and tightening supply.

OnChain數據顯示了交換和OTC平衡的穩定耗竭，信號長期積累和收緊供應。

With BTC open interest near record highs and liquidity drying up, the probability of a sharp move is increasing.

隨著BTC開放興趣接近創紀錄的高點，流動性枯竭，急劇移動的可能性正在增加。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been steadily rising, even as trading volumes dropped to their lowest levels since the start of the 2023–2026 cycle. Retail investor activity is subdued, and funding rates in perpetual swaps recently brushed against negative territory. It’s an unusual backdrop for a price pushing toward all-time highs.

比特幣（BTC）的價格一直在穩步上漲，即使交易量自2023 - 2026年周期開始以來，交易量下降到最低水平。散戶投資者的活動被柔和，並且最近對負面領土的永久交換中的資金率。這是一個不尋常的背景，對於有史以來的高潮推動了價格。

Yet beneath the surface, onchain data points to something else: a stealth accumulation phase. While the market appears calm, the supply side is quietly drying up. With Bitcoin futures open interest hovering near record highs, the market is tightly coiled, setting the stage for a perfect storm.

然而，在表面之下，OnChain數據指向其他方面：隱形積累階段。雖然市場顯得平靜，但供應方面正在悄悄地干燥。隨著比特幣期貨的開放興趣徘徊在創紀錄的高點附近，市場緊密地盤繞，為完美的風暴奠定了基礎。

BTC held on exchanges continue to fall

在交流上舉行的BTC繼續下降

Even as BTC demand, in particular in the US, continues rising, the number of Bitcoin held on centralized crypto exchanges continues to decline. Since the beginning of 2025, balances have dropped another 14%, down to just 2.5 million BTC — a level last seen in August 2022.

即使BTC的需求，尤其是在美國的需求仍在繼續上升，在集中加密交易所進行的比特幣數量仍在繼續下降。自2025年初以來，餘額又下降了14％，降至250萬BTC，這是2022年8月最後一次出現的水平。

This trend typically signals growing investor confidence and long-term holding behavior. Coins are being moved into cold storage or custodial wallets, reducing the liquid supply available for sale. Large entities often withdraw BTC after buying, reinforcing the view that accumulation is underway. With fewer coins readily available to dump, short-term sell pressure weakens.

這種趨勢通常表示增長投資者的信心和長期持有行為。硬幣正在轉移到冷藏或託管錢包中，減少了可供出售的液體供應。大型實體在購買後經常撤回BTC，從而增強了積累正在進行的觀點。短期出售壓力減弱了，易於轉儲的硬幣較少。

Over-the-counter Bitcoin balances plummet

非處方比特幣平衡暴跌

OTC (over-the-counter) desks, which facilitate large, off-exchange trades, are also showing signs of tightening supply. While these desks usually operate by matching buyers and sellers, they still rely on holding BTC reserves to enable fast and credible execution.

促進大型非交易交易的OTC（非處方）辦公桌也顯示出收緊供應的跡象。儘管這些桌子通常是通過匹配買賣雙方來運行的，但他們仍然依靠持有BTC儲備來快速可信地執行。

Currently, those reserves are at historic lows. According to CryptoQuant, OTC addresses associated with miners have seen a 19% drop in balances since January, now holding just 134,252 BTC. This data aggregates inflows from over two distinct “1-hop” addresses connected to mining pools, excluding miners themselves and centralized exchange addresses.

目前，這些儲備金處於歷史低潮。根據CryptoQuant的說法，自1月以來，與礦工相關的OTC地址的餘額下降了19％，現在僅持有134,252 BTC。該數據匯總了從兩個不同的“ 1跳”地址​​​​與採礦池相關的地址，不包括礦工本身和集中的交換地址。

When exchange and OTC liquidity dry up, the available float shrinks dramatically. In a rising market, this dynamic can amplify price movements as demand chases an increasingly scarce asset.

當交換和OTC流動性枯竭時，可用的浮子會急劇收縮。在不斷上升的市場中，這種動態可以擴大價格變動，因為需求追求越來越稀缺的資產。

Related: Bank of Japan pivot to QE may fuel Bitcoin rally — Arthur Hayes

相關：日本銀行樞紐可能會加油比特幣集會 - 亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）

Funding rates slip into negative territory

資金率陷入負面

In such a tight supply environment, even modest demand can move prices sharply, especially when the market is positioned the wrong way. The funding rate situation illustrates this well.

在如此緊張的供應環境中，即使是適度的需求也可以急劇上漲，尤其是當市場以錯誤的方式定位時。資金率情況很好地說明了這一點。

Funding rates are periodic payments between long and short traders in perpetual futures contracts, reflecting the market’s directional bias. Positive rates mean longs are paying shorts, typically a sign of bullish sentiment. Negative rates indicate short dominance and often signal local corrections.

資金率是永久期貨合約中長交易者和短交易者之間的定期付款，反映了市場的定向偏見。正率意味著渴望的短褲，通常是看漲情緒的標誌。負率表示短暫的優勢，通常會發出局部校正。

However, when negative funding coincides with rising BTC prices, it’s a different story. It suggests that despite short traders dominating, the spot market is absorbing sell pressure, a potential sign of strong underlying demand.

但是，當負資金與BTC價格上漲一致時，這是另一回事。它表明，儘管交易者占主導地位，但現貨市場正在吸收賣出壓力，這是潛在的潛在需求跡象。

This rare pattern has appeared three times during this cycle, each followed by a significant price surge. A fourth instance may have occurred recently: between June 6–8, funding rates turned negative while BTC shot to $110,000 from $104,000.

在這個週期中，這種罕見的模式出現了三遍，隨後是大幅度的價格上漲。最近可能發生了第四架實例：6月6日至8日之間，資金率是負面的，而BTC從104,000美元售價為110,000美元。

This kind of move suggests the rally may still have legs, especially if short positions continue to get liquidated — a feedback loop that can drive prices even higher.

這種舉動表明集會可能仍然有腿，尤其是如果短職位繼續被清算 - 反饋循環可以使價格更高。

The Bitcoin market may seem quiet at the moment, but that may be the point. The shrinking liquid supply suggests Bitcoin isn’t rising on euphoric investor sentiment or volume, but on a growing mismatch between heavy leverage use and real spot demand. In this kind of setup, any forced liquidation or pricing dislocation in derivatives could trigger an explosive move higher.

目前，比特幣市場似乎很安靜，但這可能是重點。收縮的液體供應表明，比特幣不會增加欣快的投資者的情緒或數量，而是在大量槓桿使用和真正的現貨需求之間越來越不匹配。在這種設置中，衍生物中的任何強制清算或定價錯位都可能觸發爆炸性的移動。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投資建議或建議。每個投資和交易舉動都涉及風險，讀者在做出決定時應進行自己的研究。