比特幣（BTC）是否正在為高波動期做好準備？

比特幣市場已經達到了平衡狀態，淨資本流量的減少以及獲利和虧損活動的減少就證明了這一點。

The Bitcoin market has reached a state of equilibrium, with a reduction in net capital flow and profit and loss-taking activities. This calm in the market, characterized by a cooling off of speculation and a reset of volatility, might be indicating a transition phase towards increased activity in the near future.

比特幣市場已達到平衡狀態，淨資本流動和損益活動減少。市場的平靜以投機降溫和波動性重置為特徵，可能表明在不久的將來將進入向活動增加的過渡階段。

Here are some key observations from recent on-chain metrics:

以下是最近鏈上指標的一些關鍵觀察：

* Capital flow into Bitcoin has shown a significant slowdown in recent months. It seems that the market has found a balance between investors looking to realize gains and those accepting losses. This phenomenon is uncommon and typically precedes an increase in volatility.

* 近幾個月來，流入比特幣的資本顯著放緩。市場似乎已經在尋求收益的投資者和接受損失的投資者之間找到了平衡。這種現象並不常見，通常先於波動性增加。

* The MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) has returned to its historical average of 1.72, a critical level that often marks a transition between bullish and bearish market trends. Approximately 51% of trading days have an MVRV value above the average, indicating that investor profitability has returned to an equilibrium state following the post-ETF launch enthusiasm.

* MVRV 比率（市場價值與已實現價值）已恢復至 1.72 的歷史平均值，這是一個通常標誌著看漲和看跌市場趨勢之間過渡的關鍵水平。大約51%的交易日MVRV值高於平均水平，顯示投資者的獲利能力在ETF推出後的熱情後已恢復到均衡狀態。

* Additionally, the percentage of supply in profit has returned to its historical average. This behavior is comparable to levels observed in late 2016, in 2019, and during the 2021 sell-off, as Bitcoin supply is reaching a global equilibrium in terms of profitability.

* 此外，供應占利潤的百分比已恢復至歷史平均值。這種行為與 2016 年底、2019 年和 2021 年拋售期間觀察到的水平相當，因為比特幣供應在獲利能力方面正在達到全球均衡。

Some metrics suggest that the market is preparing for higher volatility:

一些指標表明市場正在為更高的波動性做準備：

* The Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which measures market equilibrium, has fallen to low levels. This indicates that most coins are being spent close to their original acquisition price, which generally precedes a new regime of higher volatility.

*衡量市場均衡的賣方風險比率已降至較低水準。這表明大多數代幣的花費接近其原始購買價格，這通常先於更高波動性的新制度。

* In terms of short-term stress, the net realized profit has decreased to $15 million per day, significantly below the $3.6 billion per day observed during the $73,000 ATH in March. This adjustment is typical at market inflection points.

* 就短期壓力而言，實現淨利潤已降至每天 1,500 萬美元，遠低於 3 月份 73,000 美元 ATH 期間觀察到的每天 36 億美元。這種調整在市場拐點時是典型的。

Other observations include:

其他觀察結果包括：

* Bitcoin supply in the 3 to 6-month age band represents over 12.5% of the circulating supply. This pattern is similar to the one observed during the 2021 decline and the peak of the 2018 bear market, and suggests that these BTC are close to migrating to a Long-Term Holders (LTH) category.

* 3 至 6 個月年齡層的比特幣供應量佔流通供應量的 12.5% 以上。這種模式與 2021 年下跌和 2018 年熊市高峰期間觀察到的模式類似，表明這些 BTC 即將遷移到長期持有者 (LTH) 類別。

* The perpetual swap market has shown a decline in speculative activity, with a drop in liquidation volumes and a decreased willingness to take on high risks. This is consistent with a reset in speculative interest across the entire digital asset ecosystem, with spot markets gaining predominance in the short term.

* 永續掉期市場投機活動減少，清算量下降，承擔高風險的意願下降。這與整個數位資產生態系統投機興趣的重置一致，現貨市場在短期內佔據主導地位。