比特币（BTC）是否正在为高波动期做好准备？

比特币市场已经达到了平衡状态，净资本流量的减少以及盈利和亏损活动的减少就证明了这一点。

The Bitcoin market has reached a state of equilibrium, with a reduction in net capital flow and profit and loss-taking activities. This calm in the market, characterized by a cooling off of speculation and a reset of volatility, might be indicating a transition phase towards increased activity in the near future.

比特币市场已达到平衡状态，净资本流动和盈亏活动减少。市场的平静以投机降温和波动性重置为特征，可能表明在不久的将来将进入向活动增加的过渡阶段。

Here are some key observations from recent on-chain metrics:

以下是最近链上指标的一些关键观察结果：

* Capital flow into Bitcoin has shown a significant slowdown in recent months. It seems that the market has found a balance between investors looking to realize gains and those accepting losses. This phenomenon is uncommon and typically precedes an increase in volatility.

* 近几个月来，流入比特币的资本显着放缓。市场似乎已经在寻求收益的投资者和接受损失的投资者之间找到了平衡。这种现象并不常见，通常先于波动性增加。

* The MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) has returned to its historical average of 1.72, a critical level that often marks a transition between bullish and bearish market trends. Approximately 51% of trading days have an MVRV value above the average, indicating that investor profitability has returned to an equilibrium state following the post-ETF launch enthusiasm.

* MVRV 比率（市场价值与已实现价值）已恢复至 1.72 的历史平均值，这是一个通常标志着看涨和看跌市场趋势之间过渡的关键水平。大约51%的交易日MVRV值高于平均水平，表明投资者的盈利能力在ETF推出后的热情之后已恢复到均衡状态。

* Additionally, the percentage of supply in profit has returned to its historical average. This behavior is comparable to levels observed in late 2016, in 2019, and during the 2021 sell-off, as Bitcoin supply is reaching a global equilibrium in terms of profitability.

* 此外，供应占利润的百分比已恢复至历史平均水平。这种行为与 2016 年末、2019 年和 2021 年抛售期间观察到的水平相当，因为比特币供应在盈利能力方面正在达到全球均衡。

Some metrics suggest that the market is preparing for higher volatility:

一些指标表明市场正在为更高的波动性做准备：

* The Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which measures market equilibrium, has fallen to low levels. This indicates that most coins are being spent close to their original acquisition price, which generally precedes a new regime of higher volatility.

*衡量市场均衡的卖方风险比率已降至较低水平。这表明大多数代币的花费接近其原始购买价格，这通常先于更高波动性的新制度。

* In terms of short-term stress, the net realized profit has decreased to $15 million per day, significantly below the $3.6 billion per day observed during the $73,000 ATH in March. This adjustment is typical at market inflection points.

* 就短期压力而言，实现净利润已降至每天 1,500 万美元，远低于 3 月份 73,000 美元 ATH 期间观察到的每天 36 亿美元。这种调整在市场拐点时是典型的。

Other observations include:

其他观察结果包括：

* Bitcoin supply in the 3 to 6-month age band represents over 12.5% of the circulating supply. This pattern is similar to the one observed during the 2021 decline and the peak of the 2018 bear market, and suggests that these BTC are close to migrating to a Long-Term Holders (LTH) category.

* 3 至 6 个月年龄段的比特币供应量占流通供应量的 12.5% 以上。这种模式与 2021 年下跌和 2018 年熊市高峰期间观察到的模式类似，表明这些 BTC 即将迁移到长期持有者 (LTH) 类别。

* The perpetual swap market has shown a decline in speculative activity, with a drop in liquidation volumes and a decreased willingness to take on high risks. This is consistent with a reset in speculative interest across the entire digital asset ecosystem, with spot markets gaining predominance in the short term.

* 永续掉期市场投机活动减少，清算量下降，承担高风险的意愿下降。这与整个数字资产生态系统投机兴趣的重置一致，现货市场在短期内占据主导地位。