截至 9 月 1 日當週，比特幣 (BTC) 暴跌超過 10%

本週，投資者正在等待一系列重要的美國經濟數據發布，這些數據可能預示著美元的未來趨勢，因此

Bitcoin (BTC) price plummeted over 10% in the week leading up to September 1, as a pause in the dollar’s recent decline put renewed pressure on the leading cryptocurrency.

比特幣 (BTC) 價格在 9 月 1 日之前的一周內暴跌超過 10%，美元近期跌勢的暫停給這種領先的加密貨幣帶來了新的壓力。

Bitcoin's sensitivity to broader economic indicators was highlighted once again as the dollar index's stabilization abruptly halted the cryptocurrency's brief recovery.

隨著美元指數的穩定突然停止了加密貨幣的短暫復甦，比特幣對更廣泛經濟指標的敏感度再次凸顯。

As a result, investors are keeping a close eye on a series of key U.S. economic releases this week, which may signal the future trajectory of the dollar and, consequently, risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

因此，投資者正在密切關注本週一系列重要的美國經濟數據，這些數據可能預示著美元以及加密貨幣等風險資產的未來趨勢。

The economic data rollout begins on Tuesday with the Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for August.

週二，供應管理協會 (ISM) 8 月製造業採購經理人指數 (PMI) 公佈經濟數據。

Anticipating a slight rise in the index to 47.5, up from July's 46.8, which marked the sharpest contraction in factory activity since November 2023, ForexLive projects a small increase.

ForexLive 預計該指數將從 7 月的 46.8 小幅上升至 47.5，這標誌著自 2023 年 11 月以來工廠活動最嚴重的收縮。

Moreover, the implications of these figures for future Federal Reserve actions are being closely watched by market observers.

此外，這些數據對聯準會未來行動的影響正在受到市場觀察家的密切關注。

A weaker-than-expected PMI could bolster the case for rate cuts, potentially weakening the dollar and boosting demand for riskier assets like Bitcoin.

PMI 弱於預期可能會增強降息的理由，從而可能削弱美元並提振對比特幣等風險資產的需求。

According to CME's FedWatch tool, interest rate markets are already pricing in a 70% likelihood of a 25 basis point cut and a 30% possibility of a 50 basis point reduction at the Fed’s September meeting.

根據 CME 的 FedWatch 工具，利率市場已經消化了聯準會 9 月會議上降息 25 個基點的可能性為 70%，降息 50 個基點的可能性為 30%。

The sensitivity of Bitcoin to monetary liquidity was evident as July’s lower-than-expected ISM PMI triggered recession fears, impacting risk assets negatively even as the dollar weakened. Bitcoin’s price dropped 3.7% to $62,300 on the day the PMI data was released.

比特幣對貨幣流動性的敏感度顯而易見，因為 7 月低於預期的 ISM PMI 引發了衰退擔憂，即使美元走弱，也對風險資產產生了負面影響。 PMI 數據發布當天，比特幣價格下跌 3.7% 至 62,300 美元。

“This is a key metric as risk assets moved sharply lower the last time,” noted Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.

10x Research 創辦人 Markus Thielen 表示：“這是一個關鍵指標，因為風險資產上次大幅下跌。”

Additional economic indicators due this week include the JOLTS job opening data on Wednesday, followed by the ISM services PMI, ADP, and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.

本周公布的其他經濟指標包括週三公佈的 JOLTS 職缺數據，以及週四公佈的 ISM 服務業 PMI、ADP 和每周初請失業金人數數據。

The focal point of the week will be Friday’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for August.

本週的焦點將是周五的 8 月非農就業報告 (NFP)。

ING analysts project a consensus expectation of 165,000 job gains and a reduction in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, which might confirm a 25 basis point cut as the beginning of the Fed’s easing cycle on September 18.

ING 分析師預計就業將增加 165,000 個，失業率將降至 4.2%，這可能會確認聯準會將在 9 月 18 日開始降息 25 個基點。

However, ING’s U.S. economists suggest a less rosy scenario, with only 125,000 job additions and an unemployment rate increase to 4.4%, which could further depress the dollar.

然而，ING 的美國經濟學家提出了一個不太樂觀的前景，僅增加 125,000 個就業崗位，失業率升至 4.4%，這可能會進一步打壓美元。

Meanwhile, U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking Bitcoin experienced a net outflow of $175 million last Friday, extending a four-day losing streak.

同時，追蹤比特幣的美國上市交易所交易基金（ETF）上週五淨流出1.75億美元，延續四天連跌。

In contrast, Ether (ETH) ETFs saw no net inflows or outflows despite a trading volume of $173 million, according to data from SoSoValue. Traditional U.S. markets will be closed for the Labor Day holiday.

相較之下，根據 SoSoValue 的數據，儘管交易量為 1.73 億美元，但以太坊 (ETH) ETF 並未出現淨流入或淨流出。美國傳統市場將因勞動節假期休市。

September's Bearish Seasonality

九月的悲觀季節性

Bitcoin's seasonality over the years has shown that September is, on average, the worst performing month for BTC.

比特幣多年來的季節性表明，平均而言，9 月是 BTC 表現最差的月份。

However, 2015, 2016, and 2023 data show that Bitcoin's price was able to see surges in September as well, of 2%, 6%, and almost 4% respectively.

然而，2015年、2016年和2023年的數據顯示，比特幣的價格在9月也出現了飆升，分別上漲了2%、6%和近4%。

As revealed by the historical price moves of Bitcoin, from 2013 until 2023, September was bearish for BTC, apart from the three exceptions mentioned above.

從比特幣的歷史價格走勢來看，從2013年到2023年，除了上述三個例外，9月對比特幣來說都是利空的。

Even if, overall, BTC’s seasonality shows that this month has been the worst for the digital asset, history might not necessarily repeat itself.

即使總體而言，比特幣的季節性表明本月是該數位資產最糟糕的月份，但歷史也不一定會重演。

This month's potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could provide a break from this trend, enhancing Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value amidst increased dollar liquidity.

聯準會本月可能降息，可能會打破這一趨勢，在美元流動性增加的情況下增強比特幣作為價值儲存手段的吸引力。