截至 9 月 1 日当周，比特币 (BTC) 暴跌超过 10%

本周，投资者正在等待一系列重要的美国经济数据发布，这些数据可能预示着美元的未来走势，因此

Bitcoin (BTC) price plummeted over 10% in the week leading up to September 1, as a pause in the dollar’s recent decline put renewed pressure on the leading cryptocurrency.

比特币 (BTC) 价格在 9 月 1 日之前的一周内暴跌超过 10%，美元近期跌势的暂停给这种领先的加密货币带来了新的压力。

Bitcoin's sensitivity to broader economic indicators was highlighted once again as the dollar index's stabilization abruptly halted the cryptocurrency's brief recovery.

随着美元指数的稳定突然停止了加密货币的短暂复苏，比特币对更广泛经济指标的敏感性再次凸显。

As a result, investors are keeping a close eye on a series of key U.S. economic releases this week, which may signal the future trajectory of the dollar and, consequently, risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

因此，投资者正在密切关注本周一系列重要的美国经济数据，这些数据可能预示着美元以及加密货币等风险资产的未来走势。

The economic data rollout begins on Tuesday with the Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for August.

周二，供应管理协会 (ISM) 8 月份制造业采购经理人指数 (PMI) 公布经济数据。

Anticipating a slight rise in the index to 47.5, up from July's 46.8, which marked the sharpest contraction in factory activity since November 2023, ForexLive projects a small increase.

ForexLive 预计该指数将从 7 月的 46.8 小幅上升至 47.5，这标志着自 2023 年 11 月以来工厂活动最严重的收缩。

Moreover, the implications of these figures for future Federal Reserve actions are being closely watched by market observers.

此外，这些数据对美联储未来行动的影响正在受到市场观察人士的密切关注。

A weaker-than-expected PMI could bolster the case for rate cuts, potentially weakening the dollar and boosting demand for riskier assets like Bitcoin.

PMI 弱于预期可能会增强降息的理由，从而可能削弱美元并提振对比特币等风险资产的需求。

According to CME's FedWatch tool, interest rate markets are already pricing in a 70% likelihood of a 25 basis point cut and a 30% possibility of a 50 basis point reduction at the Fed’s September meeting.

根据 CME 的 FedWatch 工具，利率市场已经消化了美联储 9 月会议上降息 25 个基点的可能性为 70%，降息 50 个基点的可能性为 30%。

The sensitivity of Bitcoin to monetary liquidity was evident as July’s lower-than-expected ISM PMI triggered recession fears, impacting risk assets negatively even as the dollar weakened. Bitcoin’s price dropped 3.7% to $62,300 on the day the PMI data was released.

比特币对货币流动性的敏感性显而易见，因为 7 月份低于预期的 ISM PMI 引发了衰退担忧，即使美元走弱，也对风险资产产生了负面影响。 PMI 数据发布当天，比特币价格下跌 3.7% 至 62,300 美元。

“This is a key metric as risk assets moved sharply lower the last time,” noted Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.

10x Research 创始人马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 表示：“这是一个关键指标，因为风险资产上次大幅下跌。”

Additional economic indicators due this week include the JOLTS job opening data on Wednesday, followed by the ISM services PMI, ADP, and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.

本周公布的其他经济指标包括周三公布的 JOLTS 职位空缺数据，以及周四公布的 ISM 服务业 PMI、ADP 和每周初请失业金人数数据。

The focal point of the week will be Friday’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for August.

本周的焦点将是周五的 8 月份非农就业报告 (NFP)。

ING analysts project a consensus expectation of 165,000 job gains and a reduction in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, which might confirm a 25 basis point cut as the beginning of the Fed’s easing cycle on September 18.

ING 分析师预计就业岗位将增加 165,000 个，失业率将降至 4.2%，这可能会确认美联储将在 9 月 18 日开始降息 25 个基点。

However, ING’s U.S. economists suggest a less rosy scenario, with only 125,000 job additions and an unemployment rate increase to 4.4%, which could further depress the dollar.

然而，ING 的美国经济学家提出了不太乐观的前景，仅增加 125,000 个就业岗位，失业率升至 4.4%，这可能会进一步打压美元。

Meanwhile, U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking Bitcoin experienced a net outflow of $175 million last Friday, extending a four-day losing streak.

与此同时，追踪比特币的美国上市交易所交易基金（ETF）上周五净流出1.75亿美元，延续四天连跌。

In contrast, Ether (ETH) ETFs saw no net inflows or outflows despite a trading volume of $173 million, according to data from SoSoValue. Traditional U.S. markets will be closed for the Labor Day holiday.

相比之下，根据 SoSoValue 的数据，尽管交易量为 1.73 亿美元，但以太坊 (ETH) ETF 并未出现净流入或净流出。美国传统市场将因劳动节假期休市。

September's Bearish Seasonality

九月的悲观季节性

Bitcoin's seasonality over the years has shown that September is, on average, the worst performing month for BTC.

比特币多年来的季节性表明，平均而言，9 月是 BTC 表现最差的月份。

However, 2015, 2016, and 2023 data show that Bitcoin's price was able to see surges in September as well, of 2%, 6%, and almost 4% respectively.

然而，2015年、2016年和2023年的数据显示，比特币的价格在9月份也出现了飙升，分别上涨了2%、6%和近4%。

As revealed by the historical price moves of Bitcoin, from 2013 until 2023, September was bearish for BTC, apart from the three exceptions mentioned above.

从比特币的历史价格走势来看，从2013年到2023年，除了上述三个例外，9月份对比特币来说都是利空的。

Even if, overall, BTC’s seasonality shows that this month has been the worst for the digital asset, history might not necessarily repeat itself.

即使总体而言，比特币的季节性表明本月是该数字资产最糟糕的月份，但历史也不一定会重演。

This month's potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could provide a break from this trend, enhancing Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value amidst increased dollar liquidity.

美联储本月可能降息，可能会打破这一趋势，在美元流动性增加的情况下增强比特币作为价值储存手段的吸引力。