比特幣（BTC）市場投降活動現在為潛在的牛市潛在的舞台設定了舞台

記錄高點 - 2017年為20,000美元，今年為69,000美元，$ 109,000 - 非常適合頭條新聞

Record highs, be it $20,000 in 2017, $69,000 in 2021 and $109,000 this year, are great for headlines and quick comparisons, but in reality don't do a great job of describing price action.

創紀錄的高點，在2017年為20,000美元，2021年為69,000美元，今年為109,000美元，非常適合頭條新聞和快速比較，但實際上並沒有在描述價格行動方面做得很好。

Tracking the "realized price," or the average price at which bitcoin (BTC) units are sold over time, provides a more complete picture of market trends.

跟踪“實現的價格”或隨著時間的推移出售比特幣（BTC）單位的平均價格，可以更完整地了解市場趨勢。

The charts (above and below) illustrate the average withdrawal prices for different investor cohorts, segmented by the year they entered the market starting Jan. 1 of each year from 2017 to 2025.

圖表（以上及以上）說明了不同投資者隊列的平均提款價格，到他們從2017年至2025年開始進入市場的那一年。

The average realized price for the 2025 so far is $93,266. With bitcoin currently trading at $105,000, these investors are up approximately 12% on average.

到目前為止，2025年的平均實現價格為93,266美元。由於比特幣目前的交易價格為105,000美元，這些投資者平均增長了約12％。

When bitcoin began its decline from the all-time high of $109,000 in late January, it briefly fell below the 2025 realized price, a historical signal of capitulation. This period of stress lasted until April 22, when the price reclaimed the cohort’s cost basis.

當比特幣從1月下旬的歷史最高點數109,000美元開始下降時，它短暫降至2025年實現的價格，這是一個歷史彙編的信號。這一壓力一直持續到4月22日，當時價格收回了隊列的成本基礎。

Historical Context: Capitulation Patterns

歷史背景：投降模式

Historically, when price falls below a cohort’s realized price, it often marks market capitulation and cyclical bottoms:

從歷史上看，當價格低於隊列的實現價格時，它通常標誌著市場的投降和周期性的底層：

The data suggests that a capitulation phase has likely occurred, positioning the market for a more constructive phase. Historically, recoveries from such events mark transitions into healthier market conditions.

數據表明可能發生了一個投降階段，將市場定位為更具建設性的階段。從歷史上看，從此類事件中恢復標誌著向更健康的市場狀況過渡。

When bitcoin first surpassed $20,000 during the 2017 bull market, it marked a significant divergence between the market price and the realized price of just $5,149, highlighting a phase of exuberant speculation. Unsurprisingly, prices very shortly after went into a brutal reversal.

當比特幣在2017年牛市中首次超過20,000美元時，它標誌著市場價格與實現價格僅為5,149美元之間的顯著差異，這突出了一個繁榮的猜測階段。毫不奇怪，在殘酷逆轉之後不久，價格很快。

In contrast, by the depths of the 2018 bear market when bitcoin bottomed around $3,200, price at that point converged with the all-time realized price, a metric that aggregates the cost basis of all investors across cycles.

相比之下，到2018年熊市的深處，當比特幣觸底了3,200美元左右，這一點的價格與歷史上實現的價格融合了，該度量匯總了所有周期中所有投資者的成本基礎。

This long-term cost basis acts as a foundational support level in bear markets and gradually rises over time as new capital enters the market. Therefore, evaluating bitcoin solely by comparing cycle peaks, for example, from $69,000 in 2021 to just over $100,000 in 2025, misses the bigger picture.

這個長期的成本基礎是熊市中的基礎支持水平，隨著新資本進入市場，隨著時間的流逝逐漸上升。因此，僅通過比較週期峰來評估比特幣，例如，從2021年的69,000美元到2025年的100,000美元以上，錯過了更大的情況。

The more relevant insight is that the aggregate cost basis of all investors continues to climb, underscoring the long-term maturation of the asset and the increasing depth of capital committed to the network.

更相關的見解是，所有投資者的總成本基礎都在繼續攀升，強調了資產的長期成熟以及致力於網絡的資本深度的增加。