比特币（BTC）市场投降活动现在为潜在的牛市潜在的舞台设定了舞台

记录高点 - 2017年为20,000美元，今年为69,000美元，$ 109,000 - 非常适合头条新闻

Record highs, be it $20,000 in 2017, $69,000 in 2021 and $109,000 this year, are great for headlines and quick comparisons, but in reality don't do a great job of describing price action.

创纪录的高点，在2017年为20,000美元，2021年为69,000美元，今年为109,000美元，非常适合头条新闻和快速比较，但实际上并没有在描述价格行动方面做得很好。

Tracking the "realized price," or the average price at which bitcoin (BTC) units are sold over time, provides a more complete picture of market trends.

跟踪“实现的价格”或随着时间的推移出售比特币（BTC）单位的平均价格，可以更完整地了解市场趋势。

The charts (above and below) illustrate the average withdrawal prices for different investor cohorts, segmented by the year they entered the market starting Jan. 1 of each year from 2017 to 2025.

图表（以上及以上）说明了不同投资者队列的平均提款价格，到他们从2017年至2025年开始进入市场的那一年。

The average realized price for the 2025 so far is $93,266. With bitcoin currently trading at $105,000, these investors are up approximately 12% on average.

到目前为止，2025年的平均实现价格为93,266美元。由于比特币目前的交易价格为105,000美元，这些投资者平均增长了约12％。

When bitcoin began its decline from the all-time high of $109,000 in late January, it briefly fell below the 2025 realized price, a historical signal of capitulation. This period of stress lasted until April 22, when the price reclaimed the cohort’s cost basis.

当比特币从1月下旬的历史最高点数109,000美元开始下降时，它短暂降至2025年实现的价格，这是一个历史汇编的信号。这一压力一直持续到4月22日，当时价格收回了队列的成本基础。

Historical Context: Capitulation Patterns

历史背景：投降模式

Historically, when price falls below a cohort’s realized price, it often marks market capitulation and cyclical bottoms:

从历史上看，当价格低于队列的实现价格时，它通常标志着市场的投降和周期性的底层：

The data suggests that a capitulation phase has likely occurred, positioning the market for a more constructive phase. Historically, recoveries from such events mark transitions into healthier market conditions.

数据表明可能发生了一个投降阶段，将市场定位为更具建设性的阶段。从历史上看，从此类事件中恢复标志着向更健康的市场状况过渡。

When bitcoin first surpassed $20,000 during the 2017 bull market, it marked a significant divergence between the market price and the realized price of just $5,149, highlighting a phase of exuberant speculation. Unsurprisingly, prices very shortly after went into a brutal reversal.

当比特币在2017年牛市中首次超过20,000美元时，它标志着市场价格与实现价格仅为5,149美元之间的显着差异，这突出了一个繁荣的猜测阶段。毫不奇怪，在残酷逆转之后不久，价格很快。

In contrast, by the depths of the 2018 bear market when bitcoin bottomed around $3,200, price at that point converged with the all-time realized price, a metric that aggregates the cost basis of all investors across cycles.

相比之下，到2018年熊市的深处，当比特币触底了3,200美元左右，这一点的价格与历史上实现的价格融合了，该度量汇总了所有周期中所有投资者的成本基础。

This long-term cost basis acts as a foundational support level in bear markets and gradually rises over time as new capital enters the market. Therefore, evaluating bitcoin solely by comparing cycle peaks, for example, from $69,000 in 2021 to just over $100,000 in 2025, misses the bigger picture.

这个长期的成本基础是熊市中的基础支持水平，随着新资本进入市场，随着时间的流逝逐渐上升。因此，仅通过比较周期峰来评估比特币，例如，从2021年的69,000美元到2025年的100,000美元以上，错过了更大的局面。

The more relevant insight is that the aggregate cost basis of all investors continues to climb, underscoring the long-term maturation of the asset and the increasing depth of capital committed to the network.

更相关的见解是，所有投资者的总成本基础都在继续攀升，强调了资产的长期成熟以及致力于网络的资本深度的增加。