比特幣（BTC）市場分析：高風險在價格上漲的情況下

比特幣目睹了高風險，高回報的市場結構，供應量為94％，因為價格飆升至新高點。對現場驅動的集會和衍生品市場趨勢的見解。

Bitcoin (BTC) has moved into a high-risk, high-reward market structure as 94% of the cryptocurrency’s supply is now in profit, according to the latest report by Glassnode. The Network Value to Transaction (NUPL) is also nearing euphoric levels, and the Realized Profit/Loss ratio has risen to an elevated 2.38, highlighting strong potential for investors to take realized gains.

根據GlassNode的最新報告，比特幣（BTC）已進入高風險，高回報的市場結構，因為加密貨幣的94％現在是盈利的。交易的網絡價值（NUPL）也接近欣快的水平，實現的利潤/損失比率已上升到2.38升高，這突出了投資者取得實現收益的強大潛力。

The latest market movements were largely driven by a distinct rally in the spot market, pushing Bitcoin to new highs above $104.7K this week. The price momentum remains elevated, with a shift in Spot CVD to a positive stance and a rebound in spot volume, suggesting significant buy-side pressure from aggressive market participants. Additionally, ETF inflows continue to bolster the spot trend, although trade volumes are beginning to show signs of cooling.

最新的市場變動在很大程度上是由現貨市場中明顯的集會驅動的，本週將比特幣推向了104.7萬美元以上的新高點。價格動力仍然升高，現場CVD轉變為積極的立場和現貨量的反彈，這表明侵略性市場參與者的購買端壓力很大。此外，儘管貿易量開始顯示出冷卻的跡象，但ETF流入繼續增強了現貨趨勢。

In contrast, the derivatives markets, especially futures, initially lagged the rally. Open interest has been recovering slowly, and funding rates have only recently turned positive. Nevertheless, perpetual CVD indicates that the futures market is catching up, with a steady rise in net long positions since the March lows.

相比之下，衍生品市場，尤其是未來，最初落後於集會。開放興趣一直在緩慢恢復，並且籌資速率最近才變成積極。儘管如此，永久性CVD表明期貨市場正在趕上，自3月份低點以來，淨長位置穩定上升。

Options markets mirror this bullish sentiment, showcasing increased open interest, a recovering volatility spread, and a deeply negative skew, reinforcing a directional bias while highlighting the positioning risks at these levels.

期權市場反映了這種看漲的情緒，展示了增加的開放興趣，恢復的波動率差異以及深度負偏斜，增強了方向性偏見，同時突出了這些水平的定位風險。

On the on-chain side, fundamental metrics like active addresses and transfer volumes are displaying slow yet constructive growth, while fee pressures remain contained. Liquidity metrics present a mixed picture; realized cap is recovering, and HODLing behavior is dominant with a low Short-Term Holder/Long-Term Holder (STH/LTH) ratio. However, the inflow of hot capital remains muted, suggesting hesitancy among new demand entrants.

在鏈側，諸如主動地址和轉移量之類的基本指標表現出緩慢而建設性的增長，而費用壓力仍然包含。流動性指標表現出混合圖片；實現的CAP正在恢復，而Hodling行為則是主要的短期持有人/長期持有人（STH/LTH）比率的主導地位。但是，熱資本的流入仍然靜音，表明新需求進入者猶豫不決。

Overall, the market's structure at these price levels presents a balance of risks and potential rewards. If demand continues to build, especially from new entrants who respond to the rally, this scenario could unfold into a structure similar to previous bullish phases, especially if sustained over the coming weeks.

總體而言，這些價格水平的市場結構可以平衡風險和潛在的獎勵。如果需求繼續建立，尤其是從回應集會的新進入者那裡建立的，則這種情況可能會變成類似於以前的看漲階段的結構，尤其是在接下來的幾週內持續下去。