比特币（BTC）市场分析：高风险在价格上涨的情况下

比特币目睹了高风险，高回报的市场结构，供应量为94％，因为价格飙升至新高点。对现场驱动的集会和衍生品市场趋势的见解。

Bitcoin (BTC) has moved into a high-risk, high-reward market structure as 94% of the cryptocurrency’s supply is now in profit, according to the latest report by Glassnode. The Network Value to Transaction (NUPL) is also nearing euphoric levels, and the Realized Profit/Loss ratio has risen to an elevated 2.38, highlighting strong potential for investors to take realized gains.

根据GlassNode的最新报告，比特币（BTC）已进入高风险，高回报的市场结构，因为加密货币的94％现在是盈利的。交易的网络价值（NUPL）也接近欣快的水平，实现的利润/损失比率已上升到2.38升高，这突出了投资者取得实现收益的强大潜力。

The latest market movements were largely driven by a distinct rally in the spot market, pushing Bitcoin to new highs above $104.7K this week. The price momentum remains elevated, with a shift in Spot CVD to a positive stance and a rebound in spot volume, suggesting significant buy-side pressure from aggressive market participants. Additionally, ETF inflows continue to bolster the spot trend, although trade volumes are beginning to show signs of cooling.

最新的市场变动在很大程度上是由现货市场中明显的集会驱动的，本周将比特币推向了104.7万美元以上的新高点。价格动力仍然升高，现场CVD转变为积极的立场和现货量的反弹，这表明侵略性市场参与者的购买端压力很大。此外，尽管贸易量开始显示出冷却的迹象，但ETF流入继续增强了现货趋势。

In contrast, the derivatives markets, especially futures, initially lagged the rally. Open interest has been recovering slowly, and funding rates have only recently turned positive. Nevertheless, perpetual CVD indicates that the futures market is catching up, with a steady rise in net long positions since the March lows.

相比之下，衍生品市场，尤其是未来，最初落后于集会。开放兴趣一直在缓慢恢复，并且筹资速率最近才变成积极。尽管如此，永久性CVD表明期货市场正在赶上，自3月份低点以来，净长位置稳定上升。

Options markets mirror this bullish sentiment, showcasing increased open interest, a recovering volatility spread, and a deeply negative skew, reinforcing a directional bias while highlighting the positioning risks at these levels.

期权市场反映了这种看涨的情绪，展示了增加的开放兴趣，恢复的波动率差异以及深度负偏斜，增强了方向性偏见，同时突出了这些水平的定位风险。

On the on-chain side, fundamental metrics like active addresses and transfer volumes are displaying slow yet constructive growth, while fee pressures remain contained. Liquidity metrics present a mixed picture; realized cap is recovering, and HODLing behavior is dominant with a low Short-Term Holder/Long-Term Holder (STH/LTH) ratio. However, the inflow of hot capital remains muted, suggesting hesitancy among new demand entrants.

在链侧，诸如主动地址和转移量之类的基本指标表现出缓慢而建设性的增长，而费用压力仍然包含。流动性指标表现出混合图片；实现的CAP正在恢复，而Hodling行为则是主要的短期持有人/长期持有人（STH/LTH）比率的主导地位。但是，热资本的流入仍然静音，表明新需求进入者犹豫不决。

Overall, the market's structure at these price levels presents a balance of risks and potential rewards. If demand continues to build, especially from new entrants who respond to the rally, this scenario could unfold into a structure similar to previous bullish phases, especially if sustained over the coming weeks.

总体而言，这些价格水平的市场结构可以平衡风险和潜在的奖励。如果需求继续建立，尤其是从回应集会的新进入者那里建立的，则这种情况可能会变成类似于以前的看涨阶段的结构，尤其是在接下来的几周内持续下去。