比特幣 (BTC) 與 10 年期美國公債 (UST) 債券殖利率的相關性降至 -53，為過去 14 年來的最低水平

富達全球宏觀總監 Jurrien Timmer 最近就比特幣或黃金是否是更可靠的價值儲存手段的爭論發表了評論

Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, recently shared his thoughts on the ongoing debate about which asset class—Bitcoin or gold—is a more reliable store of value. He outlined scenarios where each of these asset classes may or may not be able to hedge against inflation, depending on the economic environment.

富達全球宏觀總監 Jurrien Timmer 最近分享了他對正在進行的關於比特幣和黃金哪種資產類別更可靠的價值儲存的爭論的看法。他概述了每種資產類別可能或可能無法對沖通貨膨脹的情景，具體取決於經濟環境。

The Theory Of Money Supply And Asset Valuation

貨幣供應量與資產估價理論

Timmer’s line of reasoning begins with the concept of “fiscal dominance,” where the government steps in to expand the money supply, putting the purchasing power of the currency at risk. He points out the inflation in the works, as confirmed by the historical M2 money supply/CPI relationship.

蒂默的推理思路始於「財政主導」的概念，即政府介入擴大貨幣供應量，從而使貨幣的購買力面臨風險。他指出通貨膨脹正在發生，歷史 M2 貨幣供應量/CPI 關係證實了這一點。

And while BTC and gold are arguably the two assets that are most resistant to inflation according to the theory, Timmer believes that such an environment had yet to materialize fully, even after the recent hawkishness from the Federal Reserve.

雖然根據該理論，比特幣和黃金可以說是兩種最能抵抗通膨的資產，但蒂默認為，即使在聯準會最近表現強硬之後，這種環境尚未完全實現。

Moreover, for the love of volatility, Bitcoin is also called “digital gold,” “gold 2.0,” and “exponential gold” because, on the one hand, Bitcoin has all the monetary items that gold has. Still, it is also a New internet technology, according to Timmer.

此外，由於熱愛波動性，比特幣也被稱為“數位黃金”、“黃金2.0”和“指數黃金”，因為一方面，比特幣擁有黃金所擁有的所有貨幣項目。蒂默表示，儘管如此，它也是一種新的網路技術。

However, for Bitcoin to enter and maintain its place with gold, fiat monetary aggregates would have to keep growing for an excessive amount above the normal trends.

然而，為了讓比特幣進入並維持與黃金的地位，法定貨幣總量必須繼續以高於正常趨勢的速度成長。

While there was a spike in the M2 money supply during the recent pandemic, tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve made it short-lived, according to Timmer. This suggests that gold and Bitcoin might be premature in their roles as absolute stores of value.

蒂默表示，儘管最近的大流行期間 M2 貨幣供應量激增，但聯準會收緊的貨幣政策使其短暫存在。這顯示黃金和比特幣作為絕對價值儲存手段的角色可能還為時過早。

Currently, Bitcoin’s price has surged to $69,523, following the latest CPI report indicating a slowdown in inflation, which might suggest a strengthening of its position as a store of value.

目前，在最新的 CPI 報告顯示通膨放緩後，比特幣的價格已飆升至 69,523 美元，這可能意味著其作為價值儲存手段的地位得到加強。

This report was also reflected positively in gold’s price as the asset could see a 0.91% surge over the past 24 hours with a current trading price of $2,336.

該報告也對黃金價格產生了積極影響，該資產在過去 24 小時內可能上漲 0.91%，目前交易價格為 2,336 美元。

Effects of Treasury Yield Correlations on Bitcoin

美國公債殖利率相關性對比特幣的影響

Meanwhile, according to the latest data reported by Barchart, the Bitcoin (BTC) price has lost its correlation with the 10-year U.S. Treasury (UST) bond yield as the correlation has dropped to its lowest level over the last 14 years, equaling -53.

同時，根據 Barchart 報告的最新數據，比特幣 (BTC) 價格已失去與 10 年期美國國債 (UST) 收益率的相關性，相關性已降至過去 14 年來的最低水平，相當於 - 53 .

The split signifies that BTC is now progressing independently, without the market being swayed by conventional fiscal instruments such as the yield on S Treasury bonds. This metric determines investor yields in government securities.

此次分裂意味著 BTC 現在正在獨立發展，市場不會受到 S 國債殖利率等傳統財政工具的影響。此指標決定了政府證券的投資者收益率。

This could suggest that Bitcoin is anchored more loosely to traditional financial systems, which could be the beginning of its evolution into a pluck of its unique asset class.

這可能表明比特幣與傳統金融體系的錨定更為鬆散，這可能是其演變為獨特資產類別的開始。

If Bitcoin continues to decouple from these traditional financial metrics, it could greatly enhance its case for being a better non-traditional hedge against fiscal instability.

如果比特幣繼續與這些傳統金融指標脫鉤，它可能會大大增強其作為更好的非傳統對沖財政不穩定的手段的理由。

However, the common limitations of Bitcoin and gold as stores of value, Timmer acknowledges, are based on economic conditions that are yet to play out, especially where the money supply and inflation are concerned.

然而，蒂默承認，比特幣和黃金作為價值儲存手段的共同限制是基於尚未顯現的經濟狀況，特別是在貨幣供應和通貨膨脹方面。

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

使用 DALL-E 建立的特色圖片，來自 TradingView 的圖表