比特币 (BTC) 与 10 年期美国国债 (UST) 债券收益率的相关性降至 -53，为过去 14 年来的最低水平

富达全球宏观总监 Jurrien Timmer 最近就比特币或黄金是否是更可靠的价值储存手段的争论发表了评论

Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, recently shared his thoughts on the ongoing debate about which asset class—Bitcoin or gold—is a more reliable store of value. He outlined scenarios where each of these asset classes may or may not be able to hedge against inflation, depending on the economic environment.

富达全球宏观总监 Jurrien Timmer 最近分享了他对正在进行的关于比特币和黄金哪种资产类别更可靠的价值储存的争论的看法。他概述了每种资产类别可能或可能无法对冲通胀的情景，具体取决于经济环境。

The Theory Of Money Supply And Asset Valuation

货币供应量与资产估值理论

Timmer’s line of reasoning begins with the concept of “fiscal dominance,” where the government steps in to expand the money supply, putting the purchasing power of the currency at risk. He points out the inflation in the works, as confirmed by the historical M2 money supply/CPI relationship.

蒂默的推理思路始于“财政主导”的概念，即政府介入扩大货币供应量，从而使货币的购买力面临风险。他指出通货膨胀正在发生，历史 M2 货币供应量/CPI 关系证实了这一点。

And while BTC and gold are arguably the two assets that are most resistant to inflation according to the theory, Timmer believes that such an environment had yet to materialize fully, even after the recent hawkishness from the Federal Reserve.

虽然根据该理论，比特币和黄金可以说是最能抵抗通胀的两种资产，但蒂默认为，即使在美联储最近表现强硬之后，这种环境尚未完全实现。

Moreover, for the love of volatility, Bitcoin is also called “digital gold,” “gold 2.0,” and “exponential gold” because, on the one hand, Bitcoin has all the monetary items that gold has. Still, it is also a New internet technology, according to Timmer.

此外，由于热爱波动性，比特币也被称为“数字黄金”、“黄金2.0”和“指数黄金”，因为一方面，比特币拥有黄金所拥有的所有货币项目。蒂默表示，它仍然是一种新的互联网技术。

However, for Bitcoin to enter and maintain its place with gold, fiat monetary aggregates would have to keep growing for an excessive amount above the normal trends.

然而，为了让比特币进入并维持与黄金的地位，法定货币总量必须继续以高于正常趋势的速度增长。

While there was a spike in the M2 money supply during the recent pandemic, tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve made it short-lived, according to Timmer. This suggests that gold and Bitcoin might be premature in their roles as absolute stores of value.

蒂默表示，尽管最近的大流行期间 M2 货币供应量激增，但美联储收紧的货币政策使其短暂存在。这表明黄金和比特币作为绝对价值储存手段的角色可能还为时过早。

Currently, Bitcoin’s price has surged to $69,523, following the latest CPI report indicating a slowdown in inflation, which might suggest a strengthening of its position as a store of value.

目前，在最新的 CPI 报告显示通胀放缓后，比特币的价格已飙升至 69,523 美元，这可能意味着其作为价值储存手段的地位得到加强。

This report was also reflected positively in gold’s price as the asset could see a 0.91% surge over the past 24 hours with a current trading price of $2,336.

该报告也对黄金价格产生了积极影响，该资产在过去 24 小时内可能上涨 0.91%，当前交易价格为 2,336 美元。

Effects of Treasury Yield Correlations on Bitcoin

美国国债收益率相关性对比特币的影响

Meanwhile, according to the latest data reported by Barchart, the Bitcoin (BTC) price has lost its correlation with the 10-year U.S. Treasury (UST) bond yield as the correlation has dropped to its lowest level over the last 14 years, equaling -53.

与此同时，根据 Barchart 报告的最新数据，比特币 (BTC) 价格已失去与 10 年期美国国债 (UST) 收益率的相关性，相关性已降至过去 14 年来的最低水平，相当于 - 53.

The split signifies that BTC is now progressing independently, without the market being swayed by conventional fiscal instruments such as the yield on S Treasury bonds. This metric determines investor yields in government securities.

此次分裂意味着 BTC 现在正在独立发展，市场不会受到 S 国债收益率等传统财政工具的影响。该指标决定了政府证券的投资者收益率。

This could suggest that Bitcoin is anchored more loosely to traditional financial systems, which could be the beginning of its evolution into a pluck of its unique asset class.

这可能表明比特币与传统金融体系的锚定更为松散，这可能是其演变为独特资产类别的开始。

If Bitcoin continues to decouple from these traditional financial metrics, it could greatly enhance its case for being a better non-traditional hedge against fiscal instability.

如果比特币继续与这些传统金融指标脱钩，它可能会大大增强其作为更好的非传统对冲财政不稳定的手段的理由。

However, the common limitations of Bitcoin and gold as stores of value, Timmer acknowledges, are based on economic conditions that are yet to play out, especially where the money supply and inflation are concerned.

然而，蒂默承认，比特币和黄金作为价值储存手段的共同局限性是基于尚未显现的经济状况，特别是在货币供应和通货膨胀方面。

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

使用 DALL-E 创建的特色图片，来自 TradingView 的图表