分析師說，比特幣（BTC）可能是全球貨幣趨勢。

加密分析師本傑明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）提出了加密市場如何解釋宏觀經濟信號的大膽轉變，這表明比特幣可能會導致全球貨幣供應變化，而不是相反。

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has proposed a bold shift in how the crypto market interprets macroeconomic signals—suggesting that Bitcoin may be leading global money supply changes, not the other way around.

加密分析師本傑明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）提出了加密市場如何解釋宏觀經濟信號的大膽轉變，這表明比特幣可能會導致全球貨幣供應變化，而不是相反。

In a series of posts on May 8, Cowen pointed out that if Bitcoin is leading global M2 (a broad measure of money supply), it may indicate a looming decline in global liquidity this summer. This potential shift could place pressure on altcoin pairs against Bitcoin (ALT/BTC), which typically suffer when liquidity contracts.

在5月8日的一系列帖子中，Cowen指出，如果比特幣領導全球M2（廣泛的貨幣供應量），則可能表明今年夏天全球流動性迫在眉睫。這種潛在的轉變可能會對山寨幣對比特幣（ALT/BTC）施加壓力，而比特幣（ALT/BTC）通常在流動性合同時遭受。

“If BTC is leading global M2, then it suggests global M2 may decline this summer, which could mean ALT/BTC pairs going to the range lows,” Cowen wrote.

Cowen寫道：“如果BTC領導全球M2，那麼它表明全球M2今年夏天可能會下降，這可能意味著ALT/BTC對進入範圍低點。”

“ALT/BTC pairs tend to go down when DXY goes up,” he added, referring to the inverse correlation between altcoins and the U.S. Dollar Index.

他補充說：“當DXY上升時，ALT/BTC對往往會下降。”他指的是AltCoins與美元索引之間的反相關性。

A Reversal of Traditional Thinking

逆轉傳統思維

Cowen emphasized that while global M2 has traditionally been used to predict Bitcoin’s trajectory, past examples show that this relationship can be misleading. He cited 2018 and 2022 as years when selling BTC based on a peak in M2 would have resulted in exiting near market bottoms.

Cowen強調，儘管傳統上全球M2被用來預測比特幣的軌跡，但過去的例子表明這種關係可能具有誤導性。他將2018年和2022年作為幾年來列出基於M2高峰的BTC時，將導致退出市場底部。

“I think it’s somewhat unlikely that we can predict BTC’s exact top just by offsetting global M2 by 3–4 months,” Cowen noted.

Cowen指出：“我認為，只要將全球M2降到3-4個月，我們就不太可能可以預測BTC的確切頂級。”

“I am suggesting that Bitcoin price action tells us where global M2 is headed, rather than global M2 telling us where Bitcoin is headed.”

“我建議比特幣價格動作告訴我們全球M2的發展方向，而不是全球M2告訴我們比特幣的前進。”

Implications for Altcoins and Market Strategy

對AltCoins和市場策略的影響

If Cowen’s thesis holds, traders and institutional investors may need to adjust their models. Rather than waiting on macro data to confirm trends, market participants might find valuable foresight in Bitcoin’s price action itself.

如果Cowen的論文成立，商人和機構投資者可能需要調整其模型。市場參與者沒有等待宏觀數據來確認趨勢，而是會發現比特幣的價格動作本身有價值的遠見。

For altcoins, especially those paired against BTC, Cowen’s outlook could imply increased downside risk in the near term—especially if a global liquidity contraction does materialize in line with BTC’s early signals.

對於AltCoins，尤其是與BTC配對的AltCoins，Cowen的前景可能意味著在短期內增加下行風險，尤其是如果全球流動性收縮確實符合BTC的早期信號。

As macro and crypto continue to intertwine, Cowen’s commentary adds to the ongoing debate over whether Bitcoin is a lagging speculative asset—or a leading macroeconomic barometer.

隨著宏觀和加密貨幣的繼續交織在一起，Cowen的評論增加了有關比特幣是否是投機資產的持續辯論，或者是領先的宏觀經濟晴雨表。

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