分析师说，比特币（BTC）可能是全球货币趋势。

加密分析师本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）提出了加密市场如何解释宏观经济信号的大胆转变，这表明比特币可能会导致全球货币供应变化，而不是相反。

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has proposed a bold shift in how the crypto market interprets macroeconomic signals—suggesting that Bitcoin may be leading global money supply changes, not the other way around.

加密分析师本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）提出了加密市场如何解释宏观经济信号的大胆转变，这表明比特币可能会导致全球货币供应变化，而不是相反。

In a series of posts on May 8, Cowen pointed out that if Bitcoin is leading global M2 (a broad measure of money supply), it may indicate a looming decline in global liquidity this summer. This potential shift could place pressure on altcoin pairs against Bitcoin (ALT/BTC), which typically suffer when liquidity contracts.

在5月8日的一系列帖子中，Cowen指出，如果比特币领导全球M2（广泛的货币供应量），则可能表明今年夏天全球流动性迫在眉睫。这种潜在的转变可能会对山寨币对比特币（ALT/BTC）施加压力，而比特币（ALT/BTC）通常在流动性合同时遭受。

“If BTC is leading global M2, then it suggests global M2 may decline this summer, which could mean ALT/BTC pairs going to the range lows,” Cowen wrote.

Cowen写道：“如果BTC领导全球M2，那么它表明全球M2今年夏天可能会下降，这可能意味着ALT/BTC对进入范围低点。”

“ALT/BTC pairs tend to go down when DXY goes up,” he added, referring to the inverse correlation between altcoins and the U.S. Dollar Index.

他补充说：“当DXY上升时，ALT/BTC对往往会下降。”他指的是AltCoins与美元索引之间的反相关性。

A Reversal of Traditional Thinking

逆转传统思维

Cowen emphasized that while global M2 has traditionally been used to predict Bitcoin’s trajectory, past examples show that this relationship can be misleading. He cited 2018 and 2022 as years when selling BTC based on a peak in M2 would have resulted in exiting near market bottoms.

Cowen强调，尽管传统上全球M2被用来预测比特币的轨迹，但过去的例子表明这种关系可能具有误导性。他将2018年和2022年作为几年来列出基于M2高峰的BTC时，将导致退出市场底部。

“I think it’s somewhat unlikely that we can predict BTC’s exact top just by offsetting global M2 by 3–4 months,” Cowen noted.

Cowen指出：“我认为，只要将全球M2降到3-4个月，我们就不太可能可以预测BTC的确切顶级。”

“I am suggesting that Bitcoin price action tells us where global M2 is headed, rather than global M2 telling us where Bitcoin is headed.”

“我建议比特币价格动作告诉我们全球M2的发展方向，而不是全球M2告诉我们比特币的前进。”

Implications for Altcoins and Market Strategy

对AltCoins和市场策略的影响

If Cowen’s thesis holds, traders and institutional investors may need to adjust their models. Rather than waiting on macro data to confirm trends, market participants might find valuable foresight in Bitcoin’s price action itself.

如果Cowen的论文成立，商人和机构投资者可能需要调整其模型。市场参与者没有等待宏观数据来确认趋势，而是会发现比特币的价格动作本身有价值的远见。

For altcoins, especially those paired against BTC, Cowen’s outlook could imply increased downside risk in the near term—especially if a global liquidity contraction does materialize in line with BTC’s early signals.

对于AltCoins，尤其是与BTC配对的AltCoins，Cowen的前景可能意味着在短期内增加下行风险，尤其是如果全球流动性收缩确实符合BTC的早期信号。

As macro and crypto continue to intertwine, Cowen’s commentary adds to the ongoing debate over whether Bitcoin is a lagging speculative asset—or a leading macroeconomic barometer.

随着宏观和加密货币的继续互动，Cowen的评论增加了有关比特币是否是投机资产的持续辩论，或者是领先的宏观经济晴雨表。

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