比特幣（BTC）進入5月交易的第二週，處於脆弱但關鍵的區域

比特幣（BTC）進入5月交易的第二週，在脆弱但關鍵的區域內，技術信號矛盾，宏觀不確定性越來越多地塑造了短期期望。

Bitcoin (BTC) enters the second week of May trading in a fragile yet critical zone, with conflicting technical signals and growing macro uncertainty shaping short-term expectations.

比特幣（BTC）進入5月交易的第二週，在脆弱而關鍵的區域中，技術信號矛盾，宏觀不確定性越來越多地塑造了短期期望。

While the ADX from the Directional Movement Index is rising, bearish pressure still dominates, and momentum remains weak across multiple indicators.

雖然定向運動指數的ADX在上升，但看跌壓力仍然占主導地位，並且在多個指示器中動量仍然很弱。

Although the price continues to hold above the $92,900 support level, weakening EMAs and the looming FOMC meeting leave Bitcoin’s $100,000 recovery path uncertain, but not out of reach.

儘管價格持續持續超過92,900美元的支持水平，但EMAS和迫在眉睫的FOMC會議卻留下了比特幣的100,000美元恢復路徑不確定，但沒有遙不可及。

BTC Trend Strength Rises, but Bears Still in Control

BTC趨勢強度上升，但熊仍處於控制狀態

Bitcoin’s Directional Movement Index (DMI) is showing a notable shift.

比特幣的定向運動指數（DMI）顯示出顯著的轉變。

The ADX, which measures the strength of a trend regardless of direction, has climbed sharply to 25.93, up from 15.97 just two days ago—crossing the key 25 threshold that signals a trend is beginning to gain traction.

無論方向如何，ADX都衡量趨勢的強度，它已急劇攀升至25.93，高於兩天前的15.97，這使趨勢趨勢開始引起關注的關鍵25閾值。

This rising ADX suggests that volatility is returning and a new directional move may be forming, even if the direction itself is still unclear.

這次上升的ADX表明波動率正在返回，即使方向本身還不清楚，也可能形成新的方向性移動。

Looking at the components of the DMI, +DI (bullish strength) has bounced to 12.2, up slightly from yesterday’s low of 8.67 but still down significantly from 21.31 three days ago.

從DMI的組件來看， +DI（看漲力量）已彈跳到12.2，比昨天的低點略高於8.67，但仍比三天前的21.31顯著下降。

Meanwhile, -DI (bearish strength) is at 19.17, slightly off its peak of 25.44 but still higher than three days ago. This indicates that although the recent bearish momentum has cooled somewhat, sellers still have the upper hand.

同時，-di（看跌強度）在19.17，其峰值略高於25.44，但仍高於三天前。這表明，儘管最近的看跌動量已經有些冷卻，但賣家仍然佔上風。

With ADX rising and -DI leading, Bitcoin could remain under pressure unless +DI recovers sharply in the coming days.

隨著ADX上升和-DI領先，除非 +DI在未來幾天急劇恢復，否則比特幣可能會保持壓力。

The current Ichimoku Cloud chart for Bitcoin reflects a market in consolidation, with a slight bearish undertone. Price action is sitting very close to the blue Kijun-sen (baseline), which typically represents medium-term trend momentum.

當前的Ichimoku雲圖表圖反映了整合市場，並帶有輕微的看跌式底色。價格動作非常接近藍色Kijun-sen（基線），這通常代表中期趨勢動力。

Trading beneath this line suggests that BTC lacks the strength to reclaim bullish momentum in the short term. The white candlesticks hovering near the cloud’s lower boundary indicate indecision among traders, with no clear breakout in sight.

在這條線之下的交易表明，BTC在短期內缺乏重新獲得Blullish勢頭的力量。白色的燭台在雲下部邊界附近徘徊，表明交易者之間的猶豫不決，看不到明顯的突破。

The green Kumo (cloud) itself is relatively thin at this stage, hinting at a fragile support zone that could easily be broken if bearish pressure returns.

在此階段，綠色kumo（雲）本身相對較薄，暗示一個脆弱的支撐區，如果看跌壓力恢復，很容易被破壞。

Looking ahead, the red Senkou Span B—the top of the projected cloud—is acting as dynamic resistance, capping any upward attempts. For a stronger bullish signal, BTC would need to close decisively above both the Kijun-sen and the entire cloud.

展望未來，紅色Senkou Span B（預計雲的頂部）充當動態阻力，將任何向上的嘗試加以限制。對於更強烈的看漲信號，BTC需要果斷地關閉Kijun-Sen和整個雲。

Complicating matters further, the Tenkan-sen (conversion line) is flat and overlapping with the Kijun-sen, signaling weak momentum and a lack of direction. Flat Tenkan and Kijun lines often precede sideways movement or delayed trend development.

更複雜的是，Tenkan-Sen（轉換線）是平坦的，與Kijun-Sen重疊，信號弱動量和缺乏方向。平坦的Tenkan和Kijun線通常在側向運動或趨勢發展延遲之前。

Until Bitcoin breaks convincingly above the cloud with rising volume, the current setup leans neutral to bearish, with price trapped in a zone of low conviction and limited momentum.

直到比特幣以上升的量在雲上令人信服地破裂之前，當前的設置將中性傾斜至看跌，價格被困在信念低下和有限動力的區域中。

Bitcoin Holds Key Support as $100,000 Reclaim Hangs in the Balance

比特幣持有關鍵支持，因為$ 100,000的回收懸掛在餘額中

Bitcoin price has remained resilient above the $90,000 level since April 22, repeatedly holding support near $92,945 despite broader market uncertainty. The exponential moving averages (EMAs) still reflect a bullish structure, with short-term averages positioned above long-term ones.

自4月22日以來，比特幣的價格一直保持韌性高於90,000美元，儘管市場不確定性更廣泛，但仍以92,945美元的價格持有支持。指數的移動平均值（EMA）仍然反映出看漲的結構，短期平均位置位於長期之上。

However, there are early signs of weakening momentum, as the short-term EMAs have begun to slope downward—an indication that buyers may be losing strength soon.

但是，由於短期EMAS開始向下傾斜，因此有早期的勢頭跡象，這表明買家可能很快就會失去實力。

If BTC fails to hold its key support, a drop toward $88,839 could follow, breaking the structure that has held for over two weeks.

如果BTC未能持有其主要支持，則可能會下降到88,839美元，從而打破了已經在超過兩個星期的結構中。

Still, some analysts remain confident. Nick Purin, founder of The Coin Bureau, believes Bitcoin is well-positioned to reclaim the $100,000 mark, even as markets brace for volatility surrounding the upcoming FOMC meeting:

儘管如此，一些分析師仍然有信心。硬幣局的創始人尼克·普林（Nick Purin）認為，比特幣的獎金符合100,000美元的成績，即使市場圍繞即將舉行的FOMC會議的波動付出了努力：

“It will be a volatile week. Firstly, we have the FOMC meeting tomorrow. While it’s pretty clear there will be no rate cuts, it’s what Chair Powell says that could move the markets. On top of that, trading volume is low and the long/short ratio is sitting at 50/50, which means that, yet again, BTC can swing in either direction from here. The good news is that there’s a great deal of buying interest around the $90,000-$93,000 range, so a dip to those levels is nothing to be concerned about – it will likely bounce back. And overall, the BTC/USD chart is looking strong as it continues to print higher lows.” – Purin told BeInCrypto.

“這將是一個動蕩的一周。首先，我們明天舉行FOMC會議。雖然很明顯不會削減費用，但鮑威爾主席鮑威爾（Powell）會說，鮑威爾（Powell）可能會推動市場。除此之外，交易量很低，長度/短時比例為50/50，在50/50處坐落在50/50中，這是一個很好的新聞，BTC可以在這裡進行9000千萬個，$ 9千萬美元，這是一定的$。到這些水平的傾斜是沒有什麼值得關注的 - 它可能會反彈，總體而言，BTC/USD圖表看起來很強大，因為它繼續打印出更高的低點。” - 普林告訴Beincrypto。

Nick states how Fed next decisions could influence the market in the next months:

尼克指出，在接下來的幾個月中，美聯儲下一決定如何影響市場：

“If the Fed surprises with some dov

“如果美聯儲感到驚訝