比特币（BTC）进入5月交易的第二周，处于脆弱但关键的区域

比特币（BTC）进入5月交易的第二周，在脆弱但关键的区域内，技术信号矛盾，宏观不确定性越来越多地塑造了短期期望。

Bitcoin (BTC) enters the second week of May trading in a fragile yet critical zone, with conflicting technical signals and growing macro uncertainty shaping short-term expectations.

比特币（BTC）进入5月交易的第二周，在脆弱而关键的区域中，技术信号矛盾，宏观不确定性越来越多地塑造了短期期望。

While the ADX from the Directional Movement Index is rising, bearish pressure still dominates, and momentum remains weak across multiple indicators.

虽然定向运动指数的ADX在上升，但看跌压力仍然占主导地位，并且在多个指示器中动量仍然很弱。

Although the price continues to hold above the $92,900 support level, weakening EMAs and the looming FOMC meeting leave Bitcoin’s $100,000 recovery path uncertain, but not out of reach.

尽管价格持续持续超过92,900美元的支持水平，但EMAS和迫在眉睫的FOMC会议却留下了比特币的100,000美元恢复路径不确定，但没有遥不可及。

BTC Trend Strength Rises, but Bears Still in Control

BTC趋势强度上升，但熊仍处于控制状态

Bitcoin’s Directional Movement Index (DMI) is showing a notable shift.

比特币的定向运动指数（DMI）显示出显着的转变。

The ADX, which measures the strength of a trend regardless of direction, has climbed sharply to 25.93, up from 15.97 just two days ago—crossing the key 25 threshold that signals a trend is beginning to gain traction.

无论方向如何，ADX都衡量趋势的强度，它已急剧攀升至25.93，高于两天前的15.97，这使趋势趋势开始引起关注的关键25阈值。

This rising ADX suggests that volatility is returning and a new directional move may be forming, even if the direction itself is still unclear.

这次上升的ADX表明波动率正在返回，即使方向本身还不清楚，也可能形成新的方向性移动。

Looking at the components of the DMI, +DI (bullish strength) has bounced to 12.2, up slightly from yesterday’s low of 8.67 but still down significantly from 21.31 three days ago.

从DMI的组件来看， +DI（看涨力量）已弹跳到12.2，比昨天的低点略高于8.67，但仍比三天前的21.31显着下降。

Meanwhile, -DI (bearish strength) is at 19.17, slightly off its peak of 25.44 but still higher than three days ago. This indicates that although the recent bearish momentum has cooled somewhat, sellers still have the upper hand.

同时，-di（看跌强度）在19.17，其峰值略高于25.44，但仍高于三天前。这表明，尽管最近的看跌动量已经有些冷却，但卖家仍然占上风。

With ADX rising and -DI leading, Bitcoin could remain under pressure unless +DI recovers sharply in the coming days.

随着ADX上升和-DI领先，除非 +DI在未来几天急剧恢复，否则比特币可能会保持压力。

The current Ichimoku Cloud chart for Bitcoin reflects a market in consolidation, with a slight bearish undertone. Price action is sitting very close to the blue Kijun-sen (baseline), which typically represents medium-term trend momentum.

当前的Ichimoku云图表图反映了整合市场，并带有轻微的看跌式底色。价格动作非常接近蓝色Kijun-sen（基线），这通常代表中期趋势动力。

Trading beneath this line suggests that BTC lacks the strength to reclaim bullish momentum in the short term. The white candlesticks hovering near the cloud’s lower boundary indicate indecision among traders, with no clear breakout in sight.

在这条线之下的交易表明，BTC在短期内缺乏重新获得Blullish势头的力量。白色的烛台在云下部边界附近徘徊，表明交易者之间的犹豫不决，看不到明显的突破。

The green Kumo (cloud) itself is relatively thin at this stage, hinting at a fragile support zone that could easily be broken if bearish pressure returns.

在此阶段，绿色kumo（云）本身相对较薄，暗示一个脆弱的支撑区，如果看跌压力恢复，很容易被破坏。

Looking ahead, the red Senkou Span B—the top of the projected cloud—is acting as dynamic resistance, capping any upward attempts. For a stronger bullish signal, BTC would need to close decisively above both the Kijun-sen and the entire cloud.

展望未来，红色Senkou Span B（预计云的顶部）充当动态阻力，将任何向上的尝试加以限制。对于更强烈的看涨信号，BTC需要果断地关闭Kijun-Sen和整个云。

Complicating matters further, the Tenkan-sen (conversion line) is flat and overlapping with the Kijun-sen, signaling weak momentum and a lack of direction. Flat Tenkan and Kijun lines often precede sideways movement or delayed trend development.

更复杂的是，Tenkan-Sen（转换线）是平坦的，与Kijun-Sen重叠，信号弱动量和缺乏方向。平坦的Tenkan和Kijun线通常在侧向运动或趋势发展延迟之前。

Until Bitcoin breaks convincingly above the cloud with rising volume, the current setup leans neutral to bearish, with price trapped in a zone of low conviction and limited momentum.

直到比特币以上升的量在云上令人信服地破裂之前，当前的设置将中性倾斜至看跌，价格被困在信念低下和有限动力的区域中。

Bitcoin Holds Key Support as $100,000 Reclaim Hangs in the Balance

比特币持有关键支持，因为$ 100,000的回收悬挂在余额中

Bitcoin price has remained resilient above the $90,000 level since April 22, repeatedly holding support near $92,945 despite broader market uncertainty. The exponential moving averages (EMAs) still reflect a bullish structure, with short-term averages positioned above long-term ones.

自4月22日以来，比特币的价格一直保持韧性高于90,000美元，尽管市场不确定性更广泛，但仍以92,945美元的价格持有支持。指数的移动平均值（EMA）仍然反映出看涨的结构，短期平均位置位于长期之上。

However, there are early signs of weakening momentum, as the short-term EMAs have begun to slope downward—an indication that buyers may be losing strength soon.

但是，由于短期EMAS开始向下倾斜，因此有早期的势头迹象，这表明买家可能很快就会失去实力。

If BTC fails to hold its key support, a drop toward $88,839 could follow, breaking the structure that has held for over two weeks.

如果BTC未能持有其主要支持，则可能会下降到88,839美元，从而打破了已经在超过两个星期的结构中。

Still, some analysts remain confident. Nick Purin, founder of The Coin Bureau, believes Bitcoin is well-positioned to reclaim the $100,000 mark, even as markets brace for volatility surrounding the upcoming FOMC meeting:

尽管如此，一些分析师仍然有信心。硬币局的创始人尼克·普林（Nick Purin）认为，比特币的奖金符合100,000美元的成绩，即使市场围绕即将举行的FOMC会议的波动付出了努力：

“It will be a volatile week. Firstly, we have the FOMC meeting tomorrow. While it’s pretty clear there will be no rate cuts, it’s what Chair Powell says that could move the markets. On top of that, trading volume is low and the long/short ratio is sitting at 50/50, which means that, yet again, BTC can swing in either direction from here. The good news is that there’s a great deal of buying interest around the $90,000-$93,000 range, so a dip to those levels is nothing to be concerned about – it will likely bounce back. And overall, the BTC/USD chart is looking strong as it continues to print higher lows.” – Purin told BeInCrypto.

“这将是一个动荡的一周。首先，我们明天举行FOMC会议。虽然很明显不会削减费用，但鲍威尔主席鲍威尔（Powell）会说，鲍威尔（Powell）可能会推动市场。除此之外，交易量很低，长度/短时比例为50/50，在50/50处坐落在50/50中，这是一个很好的新闻，BTC可以在这里进行9000千万个，$ 9千万美元，这是一定的$。到这些水平的倾斜是没有什么值得关注的 - 它可能会反弹，总体而言，BTC/USD图表看起来很强大，因为它继续打印出更高的低点。” - 普林告诉Beincrypto。

Nick states how Fed next decisions could influence the market in the next months:

尼克指出，在接下来的几个月中，美联储下一决定如何影响市场：

“If the Fed surprises with some dov

“如果美联储感到惊讶