儘管 BTC 價格回調，但比特幣 (BTC) 衍生性商品看起來仍保持穩定

對比特幣期貨和選擇權市場的分析表明，交易者在沒有過度槓桿的情況下維持頭寸，這對比特幣期貨和選擇權市場來說至關重要。

Bitcoin’s BTC price momentum has cooled considerably following the late Oct. 29 rally toward the all-time high, but the derivatives market continues to project traders’ optimism in a price recovery.

繼 10 月 29 日晚些時候上漲至歷史高點之後，比特幣的價格勢頭已大幅降溫，但衍生性商品市場繼續表現出交易者對價格復甦的樂觀態度。

A closer look at Bitcoin futures and options markets suggests that traders are maintaining bullish positions without adding excessive leverage, which is crucial for a sustainable push toward new all-time highs.

仔細觀察比特幣期貨和選擇權市場表明，交易者在不增加過度槓桿的情況下維持看漲頭寸，這對於永續推動歷史新高至關重要。

However, to fully grasp the trigger for Bitcoin's price drop to below $69,000 on Nov. 1, a deeper analysis is required.

然而，要完全掌握比特幣價格在 11 月 1 日跌破 69,000 美元的觸發因素，還需要更深入的分析。

Bitcoin 1-month options delta skew, put-call. Source: Laevitas.chWhen there's an elevated expectation of a Bitcoin price decline, the 25% delta skew metric usually trends above 7%, indicating that put (sell) options are priced at a premium due to increased demand.

比特幣 1 個月選擇權 Delta 偏度、賣權。資料來源：Laevitas.ch 當人們對比特幣價格下跌的預期較高時，25% 的 Delta 偏差指標通常會高於 7%，這表明由於需求增加，看跌（賣出）期權的定價會溢價。

Bitcoin derivatives look stable despite the BTC price pullbackA quick glance at the funding rate of perpetual contracts (inverse swaps) can help assess whether Bitcoin traders’ sentiment has weakened after the recent downturn.

儘管比特幣價格回調，但比特幣衍生品看起來很穩定快速瀏覽永續合約（反向掉期）的融資利率可以幫助評估比特幣交易者的情緒在最近的低迷之後是否有所減弱。

A neutral funding rate, without a cost for bullish leverage, suggests a lack of strong conviction, while rates exceeding 2.1% per month signal excessive optimism.

中性的融資利率，沒有看漲槓桿的成本，表明缺乏堅定的信念，而每月超過 2.1% 的利率則表明過度樂觀。

Bitcoin perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. Source: CoinglassOn Nov. 1, there was no significant impact on leverage demand, with the rate at 0.01% every 8 hours, or approximately 0.9% per month — generally viewed as neutral.

比特幣永續期貨8小時資金費率。資料來源：Coinglass 11 月 1 日，槓桿需求沒有受到重大影響，利率為每 8 小時 0.01%，或每月約 0.9%——通常被視為中性。

There is no indication that leverage was the primary driver behind Bitcoin's rally from $67,000 to $73,500 between Oct. 27 and Oct. 29, suggesting a healthy market trend. Overall, Bitcoin derivatives markets support a sustained bull market, potentially opening the path for further gains.

沒有跡象表明槓桿是比特幣在 10 月 27 日至 29 日期間從 67,000 美元上漲至 73,500 美元的主要推動力，這表明市場趨勢健康。總體而言，比特幣衍生性商品市場支持持續的牛市，可能為進一步上漲開闢道路。

Related: 'Uptober' sees 11% Bitcoin price spike as traders ponder ‘nuclear’ rallyMultiple factors impact investor sentimentFrom a trading standpoint, securing profits before major political and economic events, such as the U.S. presidential elections on Nov. 5 and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, is often a prudent strategy.

相關：隨著交易員考慮「核」反彈，「Uptober」預計比特幣價格將上漲11% 多種因素影響投資者情緒從交易角度來看，在重大政治和經濟事件之前確保利潤，例如11 月5日美國總統大選和聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）的決定，往往是一種審慎的策略。

Bitcoin's recovery to $71,000 on Nov. 1 can be closely correlated with movements in the S&P 500 index, suggesting that both markets are reacting to similar macroeconomic indicators.

比特幣在 11 月 1 日回升至 71,000 美元可能與標準普爾 500 指數的走勢密切相關，這表明​​兩個市場正在對類似的宏觀經濟指標做出反應。

S&P 500 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingViewFrom a short-term perspective, during times of recession risk, traders often turn to cash positions and Treasury bills for safety. This pattern helps explain the recent declines in the stock market and Bitcoin following Intel's report of a 6% quarterly revenue drop compared to the prior year.

標準普爾 500 指數期貨（左）與比特幣/美元（右）。資料來源：TradingView 從短期角度來看，在經濟衰退風險時期，交易者通常會轉向現金部位和國庫券來尋求安全。這種模式有助於解釋在英特爾報告季度收入較上一年下降 6% 後股市和比特幣近期下跌的原因。

Recent financial disclosures from tech giants like Microsoft and Meta reveal an increase in AI investment and have dampened expectations for earnings growth. This news came on the heels of a 44% plummet in Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares over three days after EY's unexpected auditor resignation.

微軟和 Meta 等科技巨頭最近披露的財務數據顯示，人工智慧投資有所增加，並削弱了對獲利成長的預期。在此消息發布之前，安永審計師意外辭職後三天內，超微電腦 (SMCI) 股價暴跌 44%。

The market mood shifted somewhat on Nov. 1 when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed a payroll growth of merely 12,000 for October, falling short of the anticipated 100,000.

11 月 1 日，美國勞工統計局公佈 10 月就業人數僅增加 12,000 人，低於預期的 10 萬人，市場情緒有所轉變。

Additionally, U.S. wages rose by 0.4% from the previous month, stoking fears of inflation. Despite this, market analysts via the CME FedWatch tool are betting on a 0.25% interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Nov. 7.

此外，美國薪資較上月上漲0.4%，引發通膨擔憂。儘管如此，市場分析師透過 CME FedWatch 工具押注聯準會將於 11 月 7 日降息 0.25%。