尽管 BTC 价格回调，但比特币 (BTC) 衍生品看起来仍保持稳定

对比特币期货和期权市场的分析表明，交易者在没有过度杠杆的情况下维持头寸，这对于比特币期货和期权市场来说至关重要。

Bitcoin’s BTC price momentum has cooled considerably following the late Oct. 29 rally toward the all-time high, but the derivatives market continues to project traders’ optimism in a price recovery.

继 10 月 29 日晚些时候上涨至历史高点之后，比特币的价格势头已大幅降温，但衍生品市场继续表现出交易者对价格复苏的乐观态度。

A closer look at Bitcoin futures and options markets suggests that traders are maintaining bullish positions without adding excessive leverage, which is crucial for a sustainable push toward new all-time highs.

仔细观察比特币期货和期权市场表明，交易者在不增加过度杠杆的情况下维持看涨头寸，这对于可持续推动历史新高至关重要。

However, to fully grasp the trigger for Bitcoin's price drop to below $69,000 on Nov. 1, a deeper analysis is required.

然而，要完全掌握比特币价格在 11 月 1 日跌破 69,000 美元的触发因素，还需要进行更深入的分析。

Bitcoin 1-month options delta skew, put-call. Source: Laevitas.chWhen there's an elevated expectation of a Bitcoin price decline, the 25% delta skew metric usually trends above 7%, indicating that put (sell) options are priced at a premium due to increased demand.

比特币 1 个月期权 Delta 偏度、看跌期权。资料来源：Laevitas.ch 当人们对比特币价格下跌的预期较高时，25% 的 Delta 偏差指标通常会高于 7%，这表明由于需求增加，看跌（卖出）期权的定价会溢价。

Bitcoin derivatives look stable despite the BTC price pullbackA quick glance at the funding rate of perpetual contracts (inverse swaps) can help assess whether Bitcoin traders’ sentiment has weakened after the recent downturn.

尽管比特币价格回调，但比特币衍生品看起来很稳定快速浏览一下永续合约（反向掉期）的融资利率可以帮助评估比特币交易者的情绪在最近的低迷之后是否有所减弱。

A neutral funding rate, without a cost for bullish leverage, suggests a lack of strong conviction, while rates exceeding 2.1% per month signal excessive optimism.

中性的融资利率，没有看涨杠杆的成本，表明缺乏坚定的信念，而每月超过 2.1% 的利率则表明过度乐观。

Bitcoin perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. Source: CoinglassOn Nov. 1, there was no significant impact on leverage demand, with the rate at 0.01% every 8 hours, or approximately 0.9% per month — generally viewed as neutral.

比特币永续期货8小时资金费率。资料来源：Coinglass 11 月 1 日，杠杆需求没有受到重大影响，利率为每 8 小时 0.01%，或每月约 0.9%——通常被视为中性。

There is no indication that leverage was the primary driver behind Bitcoin's rally from $67,000 to $73,500 between Oct. 27 and Oct. 29, suggesting a healthy market trend. Overall, Bitcoin derivatives markets support a sustained bull market, potentially opening the path for further gains.

没有迹象表明杠杆是比特币在 10 月 27 日至 29 日期间从 67,000 美元上涨至 73,500 美元的主要推动力，这表明市场趋势健康。总体而言，比特币衍生品市场支持持续的牛市，可能为进一步上涨开辟道路。

Related: 'Uptober' sees 11% Bitcoin price spike as traders ponder ‘nuclear’ rallyMultiple factors impact investor sentimentFrom a trading standpoint, securing profits before major political and economic events, such as the U.S. presidential elections on Nov. 5 and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, is often a prudent strategy.

相关：随着交易员考虑“核”反弹，“Uptober”预计比特币价格将上涨 11% 多种因素影响投资者情绪从交易角度来看，在重大政治和经济事件之前确保利润，例如 11 月 5 日美国总统大选和联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的决定，往往是一种审慎的策略。

Bitcoin's recovery to $71,000 on Nov. 1 can be closely correlated with movements in the S&P 500 index, suggesting that both markets are reacting to similar macroeconomic indicators.

比特币在 11 月 1 日回升至 71,000 美元可能与标准普尔 500 指数的走势密切相关，这表明两个市场正在对类似的宏观经济指标做出反应。

S&P 500 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingViewFrom a short-term perspective, during times of recession risk, traders often turn to cash positions and Treasury bills for safety. This pattern helps explain the recent declines in the stock market and Bitcoin following Intel's report of a 6% quarterly revenue drop compared to the prior year.

标准普尔 500 指数期货（左）与比特币/美元（右）。资料来源：TradingView 从短期角度来看，在经济衰退风险时期，交易者通常会转向现金头寸和国库券来寻求安全。这种模式有助于解释在英特尔报告季度收入较上一年下降 6% 后股市和比特币近期下跌的原因。

Recent financial disclosures from tech giants like Microsoft and Meta reveal an increase in AI investment and have dampened expectations for earnings growth. This news came on the heels of a 44% plummet in Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares over three days after EY's unexpected auditor resignation.

微软和 Meta 等科技巨头最近披露的财务数据显示，人工智能投资有所增加，并削弱了对盈利增长的预期。在此消息发布之前，安永审计师意外辞职后三天内，超微电脑 (SMCI) 股价暴跌 44%。

The market mood shifted somewhat on Nov. 1 when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed a payroll growth of merely 12,000 for October, falling short of the anticipated 100,000.

11 月 1 日，美国劳工统计局公布 10 月份就业人数仅增长 12,000 人，低于预期的 100,000 人，市场情绪有所转变。

Additionally, U.S. wages rose by 0.4% from the previous month, stoking fears of inflation. Despite this, market analysts via the CME FedWatch tool are betting on a 0.25% interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Nov. 7.

此外，美国工资环比上涨0.4%，引发通胀担忧。尽管如此，市场分析师通过 CME FedWatch 工具押注美联储将于 11 月 7 日降息 0.25%。