比特幣（BTC）處於關鍵時刻。市場觀察者和分析師正在將注意力轉向本週蠟燭的關閉

這可以確認當前恢復的彈性，也可以發出更深層矯正階段的開始。

Market watchers and analysts are turning their attention to the closing of this week’s candle on Bitcoin, which could either confirm the resilience of the current recovery or signal the start of a deeper corrective phase. In a recent analysis shared on X, respected market analyst EGRAG Crypto highlighted a compelling historical pattern that could shed light on what lies ahead for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

市場觀察者和分析師將注意力轉向本週對比特幣的蠟燭關閉，這可以確認當前恢復的彈性，或者向更深層次的糾正階段開始。在X上分享的最新分析中，受人尊敬的市場分析師Egrag Crypto強調了一種引人注目的歷史模式，可以闡明世界領先的加密貨幣的未來情況。

This Weekly Candle: Make It or Break It

這個每週的蠟燭：做或打破它

In the last cycle, BTC dropped below the yellow moving average twice. The first time, it managed to recover and continue the #BULL run, forming a double top. However, the second recovery lasted just one week before it fell…

在最後一個週期中，BTC跌至黃色移動平均線以下兩次。第一次，它設法恢復並繼續#bull運行，形成雙頂。但是，第二次恢復持續了一周才跌落…

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) April 29, 2025

- Egrag Crypto（@egragcrypto）2025年4月29日

Examining the 2021 Cycle for Clues

檢查2021週期的線索

EGRAG draws a parallel between Bitcoin’s current position and the 2021 cycle, where a similar structure unfolded. During that bull run, Bitcoin dipped below the yellow moving average line twice. The first drop was short-lived, and BTC quickly reclaimed the trendline, rallying to forge a double top.

Egrag在比特幣的當前位置和2021週期之間達到了平行的繪製，該循環展開了類似的結構。在該公牛跑期間，比特幣兩次下降到黃色移動平均線以下。第一滴是短暫的，而BTC迅速收回了趨勢線，集結為雙頂。

However, the second breach was more severe: although Bitcoin momentarily bounced back, it failed to sustain momentum and fell beneath the trendline just one week later, ultimately triggering a prolonged bear market.

但是，第二次違規行為更加嚴重：儘管比特幣暫時反彈，但僅一周後它就無法維持動力，並落在潮流之下，最終觸發了長時間的熊市。

Today’s chart suggests that BTC may be repeating this pattern. After an initial drop below the same key moving average, Bitcoin has once again recovered. But the question remains—will this second recovery mirror the resilience of the 2021 double top, or will it fizzle out like the final leg before the last bear cycle?

今天的圖表表明，BTC可能正在重複此模式。在低於相同的鑰匙移動平均水平以下的初始下降之後，比特幣再次恢復。但是問題仍然存在 - 第二次恢復會反映2021雙頂部的彈性，還是它會像最後一個熊週期之前的最後一條腿一樣浮出水面？

Technical Indicators Suggest a Pivotal Phase

技術指標表明關鍵階段

EGRAG further notes that the weekly candle’s closure is crucial. A strong bullish close above the moving average would significantly improve market sentiment and lend credence to the idea that BTC could be headed toward a parabolic rally, possibly targeting the $150,000 range.

Egrag進一步指出，每週蠟燭的關閉至關重要。超過移動平均線的強烈看漲將顯著改善市場情緒，並為BTC朝著拋物線集會邁進的想法增添信譽，這可能是針對15萬美元的範圍。

On the flip side, a weak or bearish close could confirm waning momentum and open the door for downside risk. To add weight to the analysis, EGRAG is currently examining five separate oscillators to validate the trend.

另一方面，弱或看跌的關閉可以確認勢頭減弱，並為下行風險打開門。為了增加分析的重量，Egrag目前正在檢查五個獨立的振盪器以驗證趨勢。

These likely include key tools such as the RSI (Relative Strength Index), MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), stochastic RSI, volume-based momentum indicators, and moving average crossovers—all of which are widely used by technical analysts to gauge potential market direction.

這些可能包括關鍵工具，例如RSI（相對強度指數），MACD（移動平均收斂差異），隨機RSI，基於體積的動量指標和移動平均分頻器，這些都被技術分析師廣泛使用，以評估潛在的市場方向。

Macro and Sentiment Contexts Reinforce Uncertainty

宏觀和情感上下文加強了不確定性

Bitcoin’s current indecision is unfolding amid mixed macroeconomic signals. On one hand, increasing institutional adoption and the recent launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and Hong Kong are pushing long-term sentiment into bullish territory.

在混合的宏觀經濟信號中，比特幣的當前猶豫不決正在展開。一方面，越來越多的機構採用以及最近在美國和香港推出的現貨比特幣ETF正在將長期情緒推向看漲的領土。

On the other hand, lingering inflation concerns, Fed policy uncertainty, and profit-taking by short-term holders are keeping upward momentum in check.

另一方面，短期持有人的揮之不去的通貨膨脹問題，美聯儲的政策不確定性和盈利正在控制勢頭。

In this context, the importance of the weekly candle cannot be overstated. A bullish confirmation could reignite retail enthusiasm and bring sidelined capital back into the market. But if Bitcoin falters here, it could embolden bears and create a domino effect of negative momentum, reminiscent of past capitulation events.

在這種情況下，每週蠟燭的重要性不能被誇大。看漲的確認可能會重新點燃零售熱情，並將缺口的資本帶回市場。但是，如果比特幣在這裡失敗，它可能會煽動熊並產生負動量的多米諾骨牌效應，讓人聯想到過去的投降事件。

BTC’s Future Hinges on Key Levels

BTC的未來取決於關鍵水平

If history is any guide, the next few days could set the tone for Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months. Should Bitcoin decisively close above the yellow moving average, it would validate a bullish continuation and open the possibility of surpassing previous all-time highs.

如果歷史是任何指南，接下來的幾天可能會在未來幾個月為比特幣的軌跡定下基調。如果比特幣果斷地超過了黃色移動平均線，它將驗證看漲的延續並打開超過以前的歷史高點的可能性。

However, a failure to hold this level might push BTC back into the $50,000s or lower, challenging investor confidence once again.

但是，未能保持這一水平可能會將BTC再次恢復到50,000美元或更低，挑戰投資者的信心。

As EGRAG Crypto aptly puts it, “This is make or break.” Traders, investors, and institutions alike are watching this week’s close with anticipation. Whether Bitcoin will replicate the bullish follow-through of the first cycle or stumble as it did before the bear market of 2022 is a question that only time—and this candle—will answer.

正如Egrag Crypto恰當地說：“這是製造或破裂。”商人，投資者和機構都在觀看本週的期待。比特幣是否會復制第一個週期的看漲後果，還是像2022年熊市之前那樣絆倒是一個問題，只是時間（和這個蠟燭）才會得到答案。