比特币（BTC）处于关键时刻。市场观察者和分析师正在将注意力转向本周蜡烛的关闭

这可以确认当前恢复的弹性，也可以发出更深层矫正阶段的开始。

Market watchers and analysts are turning their attention to the closing of this week’s candle on Bitcoin, which could either confirm the resilience of the current recovery or signal the start of a deeper corrective phase. In a recent analysis shared on X, respected market analyst EGRAG Crypto highlighted a compelling historical pattern that could shed light on what lies ahead for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

市场观察者和分析师将注意力转向本周对比特币的蜡烛关闭，这可以确认当前恢复的弹性，或者向更深层次的纠正阶段开始。在X上分享的最新分析中，受人尊敬的市场分析师Egrag Crypto强调了一种引人注目的历史模式，可以阐明世界领先的加密货币的未来情况。

This Weekly Candle: Make It or Break It

这个每周的蜡烛：做或打破它

In the last cycle, BTC dropped below the yellow moving average twice. The first time, it managed to recover and continue the #BULL run, forming a double top. However, the second recovery lasted just one week before it fell…

在最后一个周期中，BTC跌至黄色移动平均线以下两次。第一次，它设法恢复并继续#bull运行，形成双顶。但是，第二次恢复持续了一周才跌落…

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) April 29, 2025

- Egrag Crypto（@egragcrypto）2025年4月29日

Examining the 2021 Cycle for Clues

检查2021周期的线索

EGRAG draws a parallel between Bitcoin’s current position and the 2021 cycle, where a similar structure unfolded. During that bull run, Bitcoin dipped below the yellow moving average line twice. The first drop was short-lived, and BTC quickly reclaimed the trendline, rallying to forge a double top.

Egrag在比特币的当前位置和2021周期之间达到了平行的绘制，该循环展开了类似的结构。在该公牛跑期间，比特币两次下降到黄色移动平均线以下。第一滴是短暂的，而BTC迅速收回了趋势线，集结为双顶。

However, the second breach was more severe: although Bitcoin momentarily bounced back, it failed to sustain momentum and fell beneath the trendline just one week later, ultimately triggering a prolonged bear market.

但是，第二次违规行为更加严重：尽管比特币暂时反弹，但仅一周后它就无法维持动力，并落在潮流之下，最终触发了长时间的熊市。

Today’s chart suggests that BTC may be repeating this pattern. After an initial drop below the same key moving average, Bitcoin has once again recovered. But the question remains—will this second recovery mirror the resilience of the 2021 double top, or will it fizzle out like the final leg before the last bear cycle?

今天的图表表明，BTC可能正在重复此模式。在低于相同的钥匙移动平均水平以下的初始下降之后，比特币再次恢复。但是问题仍然存在 - 第二次恢复会反映2021双顶部的弹性，还是它会像最后一个熊周期之前的最后一条腿一样浮出水面？

Technical Indicators Suggest a Pivotal Phase

技术指标表明关键阶段

EGRAG further notes that the weekly candle’s closure is crucial. A strong bullish close above the moving average would significantly improve market sentiment and lend credence to the idea that BTC could be headed toward a parabolic rally, possibly targeting the $150,000 range.

Egrag进一步指出，每周蜡烛的关闭至关重要。超过移动平均线的强烈看涨将显着改善市场情绪，并为BTC朝着抛物线集会迈进的想法增添信誉，这可能是针对15万美元的范围。

On the flip side, a weak or bearish close could confirm waning momentum and open the door for downside risk. To add weight to the analysis, EGRAG is currently examining five separate oscillators to validate the trend.

另一方面，弱或看跌的关闭可以确认势头减弱，并为下行风险打开门。为了增加分析的重量，Egrag目前正在检查五个独立的振荡器以验证趋势。

These likely include key tools such as the RSI (Relative Strength Index), MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), stochastic RSI, volume-based momentum indicators, and moving average crossovers—all of which are widely used by technical analysts to gauge potential market direction.

这些可能包括关键工具，例如RSI（相对强度指数），MACD（移动平均收敛差异），随机RSI，基于体积的动量指标和移动平均分频器，这些都被技术分析师广泛使用，以评估潜在的市场方向。

Macro and Sentiment Contexts Reinforce Uncertainty

宏观和情感上下文加强了不确定性

Bitcoin’s current indecision is unfolding amid mixed macroeconomic signals. On one hand, increasing institutional adoption and the recent launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and Hong Kong are pushing long-term sentiment into bullish territory.

在混合的宏观经济信号中，比特币的当前犹豫不决正在展开。一方面，越来越多的机构采用以及最近在美国和香港推出的现货比特币ETF正在将长期情绪推向看涨的领土。

On the other hand, lingering inflation concerns, Fed policy uncertainty, and profit-taking by short-term holders are keeping upward momentum in check.

另一方面，短期持有人的挥之不去的通货膨胀问题，美联储的政策不确定性和盈利正在控制势头。

In this context, the importance of the weekly candle cannot be overstated. A bullish confirmation could reignite retail enthusiasm and bring sidelined capital back into the market. But if Bitcoin falters here, it could embolden bears and create a domino effect of negative momentum, reminiscent of past capitulation events.

在这种情况下，每周蜡烛的重要性不能被夸大。看涨的确认可能会重新点燃零售热情，并将缺口的资本带回市场。但是，如果比特币在这里失败，它可能会煽动熊并产生负动量的多米诺骨牌效应，让人联想到过去的投降事件。

BTC’s Future Hinges on Key Levels

BTC的未来取决于关键水平

If history is any guide, the next few days could set the tone for Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months. Should Bitcoin decisively close above the yellow moving average, it would validate a bullish continuation and open the possibility of surpassing previous all-time highs.

如果历史是任何指南，接下来的几天可能会在未来几个月为比特币的轨迹定下基调。如果比特币果断地超过了黄色移动平均线，它将验证看涨的延续并打开超过以前的历史高点的可能性。

However, a failure to hold this level might push BTC back into the $50,000s or lower, challenging investor confidence once again.

但是，未能保持这一水平可能会将BTC再次恢复到50,000美元或更低，挑战投资者的信心。

As EGRAG Crypto aptly puts it, “This is make or break.” Traders, investors, and institutions alike are watching this week’s close with anticipation. Whether Bitcoin will replicate the bullish follow-through of the first cycle or stumble as it did before the bear market of 2022 is a question that only time—and this candle—will answer.

正如Egrag Crypto恰当地说：“这是制造或破裂。”商人，投资者和机构都在观看本周的期待。比特币是否会复制第一个周期的看涨后果，还是像2022年熊市之前那样绊倒是一个问题，只是时间（和这个蜡烛）才会得到答案。