Bitcoin (BTC) Is at a Critical Juncture. Market Watchers and Analysts Are Turning Their Attention to the Closing of This Week's Candle

This could either confirm the resilience of the current recovery or signal the start of a deeper corrective phase.

Market watchers and analysts are turning their attention to the closing of this week’s candle on Bitcoin, which could either confirm the resilience of the current recovery or signal the start of a deeper corrective phase. In a recent analysis shared on X, respected market analyst EGRAG Crypto highlighted a compelling historical pattern that could shed light on what lies ahead for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

This Weekly Candle: Make It or Break It

In the last cycle, BTC dropped below the yellow moving average twice. The first time, it managed to recover and continue the #BULL run, forming a double top. However, the second recovery lasted just one week before it fell…

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) April 29, 2025

Examining the 2021 Cycle for Clues

EGRAG draws a parallel between Bitcoin’s current position and the 2021 cycle, where a similar structure unfolded. During that bull run, Bitcoin dipped below the yellow moving average line twice. The first drop was short-lived, and BTC quickly reclaimed the trendline, rallying to forge a double top.

However, the second breach was more severe: although Bitcoin momentarily bounced back, it failed to sustain momentum and fell beneath the trendline just one week later, ultimately triggering a prolonged bear market.

Today’s chart suggests that BTC may be repeating this pattern. After an initial drop below the same key moving average, Bitcoin has once again recovered. But the question remains—will this second recovery mirror the resilience of the 2021 double top, or will it fizzle out like the final leg before the last bear cycle?

Technical Indicators Suggest a Pivotal Phase

EGRAG further notes that the weekly candle’s closure is crucial. A strong bullish close above the moving average would significantly improve market sentiment and lend credence to the idea that BTC could be headed toward a parabolic rally, possibly targeting the $150,000 range.

On the flip side, a weak or bearish close could confirm waning momentum and open the door for downside risk. To add weight to the analysis, EGRAG is currently examining five separate oscillators to validate the trend.

These likely include key tools such as the RSI (Relative Strength Index), MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), stochastic RSI, volume-based momentum indicators, and moving average crossovers—all of which are widely used by technical analysts to gauge potential market direction.

Macro and Sentiment Contexts Reinforce Uncertainty

Bitcoin’s current indecision is unfolding amid mixed macroeconomic signals. On one hand, increasing institutional adoption and the recent launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and Hong Kong are pushing long-term sentiment into bullish territory.

On the other hand, lingering inflation concerns, Fed policy uncertainty, and profit-taking by short-term holders are keeping upward momentum in check.

In this context, the importance of the weekly candle cannot be overstated. A bullish confirmation could reignite retail enthusiasm and bring sidelined capital back into the market. But if Bitcoin falters here, it could embolden bears and create a domino effect of negative momentum, reminiscent of past capitulation events.

BTC’s Future Hinges on Key Levels

If history is any guide, the next few days could set the tone for Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months. Should Bitcoin decisively close above the yellow moving average, it would validate a bullish continuation and open the possibility of surpassing previous all-time highs.

However, a failure to hold this level might push BTC back into the $50,000s or lower, challenging investor confidence once again.

As EGRAG Crypto aptly puts it, “This is make or break.” Traders, investors, and institutions alike are watching this week’s close with anticipation. Whether Bitcoin will replicate the bullish follow-through of the first cycle or stumble as it did before the bear market of 2022 is a question that only time—and this candle—will answer.