這就是為什麼比特幣本月可能會讓投資者感到驚訝的原因

比特幣可能會在今年五月進入一個強大的階段，這違背了通常在傳統市場上打擊的季節性猶豫。

Bitcoin could be setting itself up for a strong month in May, surprising some who expect traditional seasonal trends to carry over from the stock market.

比特幣可能會在5月的一個月內為自己設置一個月，這使一些希望傳統季節性趨勢從股市中延續下來的人感到驚訝。

Several macro and market-specific signals suggest that momentum may be rolling over, rather than continuing in a downward direction.

幾個宏觀和特定於市場的信號表明，勢頭可能正在逐漸發展，而不是繼續向下方向。

Analysts have pointed to a growing connection between Bitcoin’s price and global money supply metrics like M2.

分析師指出，比特幣的價格與M2等全球貨幣供應指標之間的聯繫不斷增長。

This connection has been a topic of interest for several market participants, especially as major central banks continue cutting interest rates and expanding their balance sheets.

這種聯繫一直是幾個市場參與者感興趣的話題，尤其是當主要中央銀行繼續降低利率並擴大資產負債表時。

Rising Liquidity May Spark Further Bitcoin Gains

流動性上升可能會引發更多的比特幣增長

The thinking goes that, as central banks increase liquidity—through rate cuts or asset purchases—Bitcoin tends to rise.

這種想法是，隨著中央銀行增加流動性（通過削減稅率或資產的購買），Bitcoin往往會上升。

With expansionary policies taking hold in major economies, this trend may be repeating. Data from Kaduna shows that Bitcoin price action often trails M2 movements by roughly 90 days, suggesting that the cryptocurrency could continue moving higher in the coming weeks.

隨著擴張性政策在主要經濟體中持有，這種趨勢可能會重複。卡杜納（Kaduna）的數據表明，比特幣價格行動通常會使M2的動作大約落後90天，這表明加密貨幣在接下來的幾週內可能會繼續移動更高。

This view is further supported by past performance. Over the last 12 years, Bitcoin has posted average May returns of nearly 8%, rendering it one of the best-performing months on average.

過去的性能進一步支持了這種觀點。在過去的12年中，比特幣的平均五月回報率近8％，使其平均是表現最好的月份之一。

While crypto price action is notoriously volatile and unpredictable in the short term, May has statistically clocked in with more bullish performance than bearish performance.

儘管眾所周知，在短期內，加密貨幣價格動作卻是不可預測的，但梅在統計學上的表現比看跌性能更高。

At the same time, institutional flows are also rolling over. Recent ETF data shows that investors are continuing to allocate capital to Bitcoin in droves.

同時，機構流也在翻滾。最近的ETF數據表明，投資者正在繼續將資本分配給比特幣。

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust saw a single day of net inflows totaling nearly $1 billion, pushing its total past $42 billion.

貝萊德（BlackRock）的iShares比特幣信託基金（Ishares Bitcoin Trust）一日淨流入總計近10億美元，將其總計420億美元推向了。

This surge in demand on a single day speaks to the confidence that investors have in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, which could fuel further price appreciation.

這一天的需求激增表明了投資者對比特幣長期軌蹟的信心，這可能會推動進一步的價格升值。

Bitcoin Price Action vs. Global Money Supply (M2) | Via Kaduna

比特幣價格行動與全球貨幣供應（M2）|通過Kaduna

Moreover, Bitcoin is increasingly moving independently from equities.

此外，比特幣越來越多地獨立於股票移動。

Analysts have noted its divergence from major indexes like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, interpreting it as a sign that crypto is no longer just a proxy for risk assets, but a maturing store of value with its own momentum.

分析師已經指出，它與標準普爾500指數和納斯達克等主要索引的差異，將其解釋為一個跡象表明，加密貨幣不再僅僅是風險資產的代理，而是具有自己動力的成熟價值。

Of course, economic updates—such as interest rate changes or inflation data—could create some turbulence in the market.

當然，經濟更新（例如利率變化或通貨膨脹數據）可能會在市場上造成一些動盪。

But the combination of rising liquidity, institutional adoption, and relative strength positions Bitcoin well for a potentially strong performance in the month ahead.

但是，在未來一個月的流動性，機構採用率和相對力量位置的增長相結合，比特幣在未來的一個月內表現出色。