數十億美元流入了美國上市的比特幣

數據分析表明，大多數投資可能是由大膽，戰略性的看漲定向賭注而不是市場中性套利的驅動。

As the U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs continue to attract billions of dollars, the nature of the investment suggests that most of the funds are being driven by bold, strategic bullish directional bets rather than classic market-neutral arbitrage plays, at least according to an analysis of available data.

隨著美國現貨比特幣ETF繼續吸引數十億美元，這項投資的性質表明，至少根據可用數據的分析，大多數資金都是由大膽，戰略性的看漲定向下注而不是經典的市場中性套利播放所驅動的。

After a strong start to the year, April saw another $2.97 billion pour into the 11 spot ETFs, with an additional $2.64 billion flowing in so far this month, according to data from SoSoValue. This has brought the total net inflow since their January 2024 launch to over $41 billion.

根據Sosovalue的數據，今年的強勁開端之後，四月又湧入了117億美元的ETF，本月到目前為止又有26.4億美元的流動。自2024年1月推出以來，這已經使淨流入總額超過410億美元。

Institutions are known for using these ETFs to set up non-directional arbitrage plays, aiming to profit from any price differences between the futures and spot bitcoin markets. This strategy, called cash and carry arbitrage, involves buying ETFs and simultaneously selling CME futures to collect the futures premium while circumventing the risks associated with price direction.

機構以使用這些ETF來建立非方向套利遊戲而聞名，旨在從期貨和現貨比特幣市場之間的任何價格差異中獲利。這種稱為現金和攜帶套利的策略涉及購買ETF和同時出售CME期貨以收集期貨保費，同時規避與價格方向相關的風險。

However, the magnitude and timing of the recent inflows, especially since early April, suggest that they are being driven more by bullish directional bets than by arbitrage plays. This is supported by an analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

但是，最近流入的幅度和時機，尤其是自4月初以來，這表明它們是由看漲的定向下注所驅動的，而不是套利的戲劇。這是對商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）每週發布的對貿易商（COT）報告的承諾（COT）報告的分析的支持。

The data from the COT report, which provides insight into the collective market positions of various trader categories, shows that leveraged funds, typically encompassing hedge funds and diverse money managers, have reduced their net shorts.

COT報告中的數據提供了對各種交易者類別的集體市場地位的見解，表明利用資金（通常包括對沖基金和多樣化的貨幣經理）減少了淨短褲。

According to Tradingster’s analysis of the CFTC data, these funds had a net short position of 14,139 contracts in the latest report, compared to 17,141 contracts at the beginning of April.

根據Tradingster對CFTC數據的分析，這些基金在最新報告中的淨淨頭寸為14,139份合同，而4月初則為17,141份合同。

If carry trades were the primary driver of the ETF net inflows, one would expect to see an increase in the number of shorts held by leveraged funds. These funds are largely focused on making a profit from price changes over time, whereas carry traders are typically concerned with the short-term implications of futures and options positions.

如果攜帶交易是ETF淨流入的主要驅動力，那麼人們希望槓桿資金持有的短褲數量有所增加。這些資金主要集中在隨時間變化中獲利，而隨身攜帶的交易者通常關注期貨和期權職位的短期影響。

"CFTC data shows that leveraged funds did not meaningfully increase short positions, suggesting that most of the flows were directional bets, not arbitrage, as evidenced by the lack of a significant increase in short positions held by leveraged funds," said Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insight, in a recent blog post on Deribit.

“槓桿資金沒有有意義地提高短期頭寸，這表明大多數流量是定向賭注，而不是套利，這證明了槓桿資金的短期職位缺乏大幅度增加。

This shift in the nature of inflows into the ETFs suggests that large players are increasingly using the ETFs to express a clear market outlook on bitcoin’s future direction.

流入性質向ETF的這種轉變表明，大型參與者越來越多地利用ETF來表達對比特幣未來方向的明確市場前景。

Bitcoin last changed hands at $102,700 at press time, according to CoinDesk data.

根據Coindesk的數據，比特幣最後一次以102,700美元的價格易手。