数十亿美元流入了美国上市的比特币

数据分析表明，大多数投资可能是由大胆，战略性的看涨定向赌注而不是市场中性套利的驱动。

As the U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs continue to attract billions of dollars, the nature of the investment suggests that most of the funds are being driven by bold, strategic bullish directional bets rather than classic market-neutral arbitrage plays, at least according to an analysis of available data.

随着美国现货比特币ETF继续吸引数十亿美元，这项投资的性质表明，至少根据可用数据的分析，大多数资金都是由大胆，战略性的看涨定向下注而不是经典的市场中性套利播放所驱动的。

After a strong start to the year, April saw another $2.97 billion pour into the 11 spot ETFs, with an additional $2.64 billion flowing in so far this month, according to data from SoSoValue. This has brought the total net inflow since their January 2024 launch to over $41 billion.

根据Sosovalue的数据，今年的强劲开端之后，四月又涌入了117亿美元的ETF，本月到目前为止又有26.4亿美元的流动。自2024年1月推出以来，这已经使净流入总额超过410亿美元。

Institutions are known for using these ETFs to set up non-directional arbitrage plays, aiming to profit from any price differences between the futures and spot bitcoin markets. This strategy, called cash and carry arbitrage, involves buying ETFs and simultaneously selling CME futures to collect the futures premium while circumventing the risks associated with price direction.

机构以使用这些ETF来建立非方向套利游戏而闻名，旨在从期货和现货比特币市场之间的任何价格差异中获利。这种称为现金和携带套利的策略涉及购买ETF和同时出售CME期货以收集期货保费，同时规避与价格方向相关的风险。

However, the magnitude and timing of the recent inflows, especially since early April, suggest that they are being driven more by bullish directional bets than by arbitrage plays. This is supported by an analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

但是，最近流入的幅度和时机，尤其是自4月初以来，这表明它们是由看涨的定向下注所驱动的，而不是套利的戏剧。这是对商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）每周发布的对贸易商（COT）报告的承诺（COT）报告的分析的支持。

The data from the COT report, which provides insight into the collective market positions of various trader categories, shows that leveraged funds, typically encompassing hedge funds and diverse money managers, have reduced their net shorts.

COT报告中的数据提供了对各种交易者类别的集体市场地位的见解，表明利用资金（通常包括对冲基金和多样化的货币经理）减少了净短裤。

According to Tradingster’s analysis of the CFTC data, these funds had a net short position of 14,139 contracts in the latest report, compared to 17,141 contracts at the beginning of April.

根据Tradingster对CFTC数据的分析，这些基金在最新报告中的净净头寸为14,139份合同，而4月初则为17,141份合同。

If carry trades were the primary driver of the ETF net inflows, one would expect to see an increase in the number of shorts held by leveraged funds. These funds are largely focused on making a profit from price changes over time, whereas carry traders are typically concerned with the short-term implications of futures and options positions.

如果携带交易是ETF净流入的主要驱动力，那么人们希望杠杆资金持有的短裤数量有所增加。这些资金主要集中在随时间变化中获利，而随身携带的交易者通常关注期货和期权职位的短期影响。

"CFTC data shows that leveraged funds did not meaningfully increase short positions, suggesting that most of the flows were directional bets, not arbitrage, as evidenced by the lack of a significant increase in short positions held by leveraged funds," said Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insight, in a recent blog post on Deribit.

“杠杆资金没有有意义地提高短期头寸，这表明大多数流量是定向赌注，而不是套利，这证明了杠杆资金的短期职位缺乏大幅度增加。

This shift in the nature of inflows into the ETFs suggests that large players are increasingly using the ETFs to express a clear market outlook on bitcoin’s future direction.

流入性质向ETF的这种转变表明，大型参与者越来越多地利用ETF来表达对比特币未来方向的明确市场前景。

Bitcoin last changed hands at $102,700 at press time, according to CoinDesk data.

根据Coindesk的数据，比特币最后一次以102,700美元的价格易手。