世界上唯一可以準確預測未來價格的資產

2019 年 3 月，Twitter 用戶「PlanB」（@100trillionUSD）發表了一篇題為「以稀缺性建模比特幣價值」的文章。他隨後的庫存流量模型使用比特幣已知的供應計劃和歷史價格走勢來表明價格與比特幣的庫存流量之間隨時間的關係。

In March 2019, Twitter user “PlanB” (@100trillionUSD) published an article titled ‘Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity’. His ensuing stock-to-flow model uses Bitcoin’s known supply schedule, and historical price action to show there is a relationship between price and Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow over time.

2019 年 3 月，Twitter 用戶「PlanB」（@100trillionUSD）發表了一篇題為「以稀缺性建模比特幣價值」的文章。他隨後的庫存流量模型使用比特幣已知的供應計劃和歷史價格走勢來表明價格與比特幣的庫存流量之間隨時間的關係。

A common criticism of his model is that it doesn’t include overall demand. But this isn’t really true – demand is simply encompassed within the model.

對他的模型的常見批評是它沒有考慮整體需求。但事實並非如此——需求只是包含在模型中。

Understanding Bitcoin’s value proposition is hard. One must understand the history of money, the potential total addressable market, the underlying incentives, the trends in modern society and many other factors. It also takes time and a certain amount of critical thinking ability most do not possess. The barrier to entry of becoming a Bitcoin HODLer is larger than most realise.

要理解比特幣的價值主張很困難。人們必須了解貨幣的歷史、潛在的總目標市場、潛在的激勵因素、現代社會的趨勢以及許多其他因素。它還需要時間和一定的批判性思考能力，大多數人都不具備。成為比特幣持有者的門檻比大多數人想像的還要大。

Most people who own Bitcoin today are simply in it to make more of their local fiat currency. As soon as the price rises, they will sell. We define a HODLer to be somebody who believes that Bitcoin will become the dominant world currency over the coming decades and has no intention of ever selling.

如今，大多數擁有比特幣的人只是為了賺取更多當地法定貨幣。一旦價格上漲，他們就會出售。我們將持有者定義為相信比特幣將在未來幾十年成為世界主導貨幣並且無意出售的人。

Demand

要求

At this stage, the number of people buying and holding Bitcoin for the long term is not changing based on the President’s tweets, the amount of QE announced by central banks, or whether an ETF is going to be approved. Whilst these cause short term trading movements, the long-term price is being driven by a continual increase in the amount of HODLers buying up an asset that has a fixed supply.

現階段，長期購買和持有比特幣的人數不會因為總統的推文、央行宣布的量化寬鬆規模或 ETF 是否獲得批准而改變。雖然這些會導致短期交易波動，但長期價格是由購買固定供應資產的持有者數量持續增加所推動的。

HODLers continue accumulating as much Bitcoin as they can, no matter what the price. They have no intention of ever trading their Bitcoin back to fiat currency. They are, on average, below the age of 40 and are willing to hold their Bitcoin for decades if necessary. Whilst they would like 1 Bitcoin to be worth a million dollars one day – they would be happy that their purchasing power has increased – at that stage, the last thing they would want would be a million dollars. A currency they have for years seen wildly depreciate against Bitcoin.

無論價格如何，持有者都會繼續盡可能累積比特幣。他們無意將比特幣換回法定貨幣。他們平均年齡不到 40 歲，如有必要，他們願意持有比特幣數十年。雖然他們希望有一天 1 個比特幣價值 100 萬美元——他們會很高興他們的購買力增加——但在那個階段，他們最不想要的就是 100 萬美元。多年來他們看到這種貨幣相對於比特幣大幅貶值。

The number of people who “get it” over time is increasing, year on year. This is the real demand side of Bitcoin. Eventually the number of HODLers will plateau, but no more fresh demand will be needed, as the HODLers continuing to accumulate a diminishing supply will be all that is required to keep the Bitcoin price increasing in perpetuity.

隨著時間的推移，「明白」的人數逐年增加。這就是比特幣真正的需求面。最終，HODLers 的數量將趨於穩定，但不再需要新的需求，因為 HODLers 繼續累積不斷減少的供應將是保持比特幣價格永久上漲所需的全部。

Supply

供應

The Supply side is a constant emission of X BTC a day, for the HODLers to try to accumulate as fast as their budgets allows them. Mining is extremely competitive, so over any reasonable timeframe, most BTC must be sold by miners to meet electricity costs (and whatever percentage is HODLed is probably a similar rate over time, and therefore counts towards the HODLer demand side of the equation).

供應方每天不斷排放 X BTC，供 HODLers 嘗試在預算允許的範圍內盡快累積。挖礦業競爭非常激烈，因此在任何合理的時間範圍內，大多數BTC 都必須由礦工出售來滿足電力成本（無論HODL 百分比如何，隨著時間的推移，其比率可能相似，因此計入等式的HODLer 需求方）。

This is the supply side of Bitcoin.

這就是比特幣的供給面。

Stock-to-flow

庫存到流量

Because both supply and demand are so predictable, we can then graph this into the future. Whilst PlanB’s model specifically looks at price vs it’s stock-to-flow over time, it is essentially the above that is the intuitive driver of this relationship.

由於供給和需求都是可預測的，因此我們可以將其繪製成未來圖。雖然 PlanB 的模型專門關注價格與隨時間變化的存量流量的關係，但本質上，上述因素才是這種關係的直觀驅動因素。

Ultimately, the only thing that will break the model will be Bitcoin failing for some technological reason and going to zero, or it breaking to the upside as most of the world’s capital allocators lose faith in fiat currency. Both of which are highly unlikely to happen in the next 5-6 years. Plan B’s model will likely hold for a while longer yet and beyond the next halving. Making Bitcoin the only asset in the history of the world where we can accurately predict the future price ahead of time.

最終，唯一能打破這個模式的是比特幣因某種技術原因而失敗並歸零，或者隨著世界上大多數資本配置者對法定貨幣失去信心而突破上行趨勢。這兩種情況在未來 5-6 年內都不太可能發生。 B 計劃的模型可能會持續一段時間，並且持續到下一次減半之後。使比特幣成為世界歷史上唯一可以提前準確預測未來價格的資產。

Whilst most think of ‘hyperbitcoinisation’ as a future event, we are actually living it now. It’s just that nobody has realised.

雖然大多數人認為「超級比特幣化」是未來的事件，但我們現在實際上正在經歷它。只是沒有人意識到而已。

For more news, guides and cryptocurrency analysis, click here.

如需更多新聞、指南和加密貨幣分析，請點擊此處。