世界上唯一可以准确预测未来价格的资产

2019 年 3 月，Twitter 用户“PlanB”（@100trillionUSD）发表了一篇题为“用稀缺性建模比特币价值”的文章。他随后的库存流量模型使用比特币已知的供应计划和历史价格走势来表明价格与比特币的库存流量之间随时间的关系。

In March 2019, Twitter user “PlanB” (@100trillionUSD) published an article titled ‘Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity’. His ensuing stock-to-flow model uses Bitcoin’s known supply schedule, and historical price action to show there is a relationship between price and Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow over time.

2019 年 3 月，Twitter 用户“PlanB”（@100trillionUSD）发表了一篇题为“用稀缺性建模比特币价值”的文章。他随后的库存流量模型使用比特币已知的供应计划和历史价格走势来表明价格与比特币的库存流量之间随时间的关系。

A common criticism of his model is that it doesn’t include overall demand. But this isn’t really true – demand is simply encompassed within the model.

对他的模型的常见批评是它没有考虑总体需求。但事实并非如此——需求只是包含在模型中。

Understanding Bitcoin’s value proposition is hard. One must understand the history of money, the potential total addressable market, the underlying incentives, the trends in modern society and many other factors. It also takes time and a certain amount of critical thinking ability most do not possess. The barrier to entry of becoming a Bitcoin HODLer is larger than most realise.

理解比特币的价值主张很困难。人们必须了解货币的历史、潜在的总目标市场、潜在的激励因素、现代社会的趋势以及许多其他因素。它还需要时间和一定的批判性思维能力，大多数人都不具备。成为比特币持有者的门槛比大多数人想象的要大。

Most people who own Bitcoin today are simply in it to make more of their local fiat currency. As soon as the price rises, they will sell. We define a HODLer to be somebody who believes that Bitcoin will become the dominant world currency over the coming decades and has no intention of ever selling.

如今，大多数拥有比特币的人只是为了赚取更多当地法定货币。一旦价格上涨，他们就会出售。我们将持有者定义为相信比特币将在未来几十年成为世界主导货币并且无意出售的人。

Demand

要求

At this stage, the number of people buying and holding Bitcoin for the long term is not changing based on the President’s tweets, the amount of QE announced by central banks, or whether an ETF is going to be approved. Whilst these cause short term trading movements, the long-term price is being driven by a continual increase in the amount of HODLers buying up an asset that has a fixed supply.

现阶段，长期购买和持有比特币的人数不会因为总统的推文、央行宣布的量化宽松规模或 ETF 是否获得批准而发生变化。虽然这些会导致短期交易波动，但长期价格是由购买固定供应资产的持有者数量持续增加所推动的。

HODLers continue accumulating as much Bitcoin as they can, no matter what the price. They have no intention of ever trading their Bitcoin back to fiat currency. They are, on average, below the age of 40 and are willing to hold their Bitcoin for decades if necessary. Whilst they would like 1 Bitcoin to be worth a million dollars one day – they would be happy that their purchasing power has increased – at that stage, the last thing they would want would be a million dollars. A currency they have for years seen wildly depreciate against Bitcoin.

无论价格如何，持有者都会继续尽可能多地积累比特币。他们无意将比特币换回法定货币。他们平均年龄不到 40 岁，如有必要，愿意持有比特币数十年。虽然他们希望 1 个比特币有一天能价值 100 万美元——他们会很高兴自己的购买力有所增加——但在那个阶段，他们最不想要的就是 100 万美元。多年来他们看到这种货币相对于比特币大幅贬值。

The number of people who “get it” over time is increasing, year on year. This is the real demand side of Bitcoin. Eventually the number of HODLers will plateau, but no more fresh demand will be needed, as the HODLers continuing to accumulate a diminishing supply will be all that is required to keep the Bitcoin price increasing in perpetuity.

随着时间的推移，“明白”的人数逐年增加。这就是比特币真正的需求面。最终，HODLers 的数量将趋于稳定，但不再需要新的需求，因为 HODLers 继续积累不断减少的供应将是保持比特币价格永久上涨所需的全部。

Supply

供应

The Supply side is a constant emission of X BTC a day, for the HODLers to try to accumulate as fast as their budgets allows them. Mining is extremely competitive, so over any reasonable timeframe, most BTC must be sold by miners to meet electricity costs (and whatever percentage is HODLed is probably a similar rate over time, and therefore counts towards the HODLer demand side of the equation).

供应方每天不断排放 X BTC，供 HODLers 尝试在预算允许的范围内尽快积累。挖矿业竞争非常激烈，因此在任何合理的时间范围内，大多数 BTC 都必须由矿工出售来满足电力成本（无论 HODL 百分比如何，随着时间的推移，其比率可能相似，因此计入等式的 HODLer 需求方）。

This is the supply side of Bitcoin.

这就是比特币的供给侧。

Stock-to-flow

库存到流量

Because both supply and demand are so predictable, we can then graph this into the future. Whilst PlanB’s model specifically looks at price vs it’s stock-to-flow over time, it is essentially the above that is the intuitive driver of this relationship.

由于供给和需求都是可预测的，因此我们可以将其绘制成未来图。虽然 PlanB 的模型专门关注价格与随时间变化的存量流量的关系，但本质上，上述因素才是这种关系的直观驱动因素。

Ultimately, the only thing that will break the model will be Bitcoin failing for some technological reason and going to zero, or it breaking to the upside as most of the world’s capital allocators lose faith in fiat currency. Both of which are highly unlikely to happen in the next 5-6 years. Plan B’s model will likely hold for a while longer yet and beyond the next halving. Making Bitcoin the only asset in the history of the world where we can accurately predict the future price ahead of time.

最终，唯一能打破这一模式的就是比特币由于某种技术原因而失败并归零，或者随着世界上大多数资本配置者对法定货币失去信心而突破上行趋势。这两种情况在未来 5-6 年内都不太可能发生。 B 计划的模型可能会持续一段时间，并且持续到下一次减半之后。使比特币成为世界历史上唯一可以提前准确预测未来价格的资产。

Whilst most think of ‘hyperbitcoinisation’ as a future event, we are actually living it now. It’s just that nobody has realised.

虽然大多数人认为“超级比特币化”是未来的事件，但我们现在实际上正在经历它。只是没有人意识到而已。

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