亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）向加密投資者和比特幣（BTC）霍德爾（BTC）痴迷於美聯儲政策

隨著美國和中國達成一項貿易協議的英寸，亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）向加密投資者和比特幣（BTC）霍德爾（BTC）hodlers痴迷於美聯儲政策：您正在看著錯誤的機構。

Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder of crypto exchange FTX, has a warning for bitcoin (BTC) investors: you're obsessing over the wrong U.S. institution.

Crypto Exchange FTX的直言不諱的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes警告比特幣（BTC）投資者：您對美國錯誤的機構感到痴迷。

It isn't Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell or the risings rates that matter most, but rather Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is quietly pulling the monetary levers to manage a ballooning U.S. debt load.

它不是美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）或最重要的提升率，而是財政部長斯科特·貝森特（Scott Bessent），他悄悄地拉動了貨幣槓桿來管理激烈的美國債務負擔。

“The real show is at the Treasury Department. Ignore the Fed. It doesn't matter,” Hayes told CoinDesk in a recent interview. “Powell didn't matter in 2022 under a Democratic regime, and he doesn't matter now under a Republican one.”

海斯在最近的一次採訪中告訴科德斯克：“真正的表演是在財政部。忽略美聯儲。這沒關係。” “鮑威爾在2022年在民主黨政權下並不重要，現在他在共和黨領導下並不重要。”

For Hayes, the Federal Reserve has become a sideshow. The real lever-pulling is happening under Bessent, who is juggling buybacks and auction strategies to reshape global liquidity.

對於海耶斯來說，美聯儲已成為雜種。在Bessent下，真正的槓桿正在發生，後者正在兼顧回購和拍賣策略以重塑全球流動性。

“The optimists among us like to say that the U.S. administration is pivoting toward stability and rational economic policies,” Hayes said. “The pessimists might say that the good times are coming to an end and that the U.S. is resorting to desperate measures to avoid default.”

海耶斯說：“我們當中的樂觀主義者喜歡說，美國政府正在朝著穩定和理性的經濟政策轉移。” “悲觀主義者可能會說，美好時光即將結束，美國正在採取絕望的措施避免違約。”

Ultimately, both outlooks converge on one point: there will be less, not more, liquidity in the system. And that, in the co-founder's view, bodes well for bitcoin.

最終，兩種前景都在某一時刻融合：系統中的流動性將較少，而不是更多。從聯合創始人的角度來看，這對於比特幣來說是很好的。

“All we care about is whether there are more dollars in the system today than yesterday. That's all that matters. We don't care about the rate of change in the U.S. capital account or the trade balance. None of that matters,” Hayes said.

海斯說：“我們所關心的是，今天系統中的美元是否比昨天多。這很重要。我們不在乎美國資本帳戶或貿易餘額的變化率。這一切都不重要。”

The co-founder also touched upon the U.S. and China's performative trade diplomacy, which he said will likely culminate in a shallow deal as both sides are forced into cooperation.

該聯合創始人還談到了美國和中國的表演性貿易外交，他說，隨著雙方被迫合作，這可能會達到淺薄協議。

“It's going to be a deal on the surface. Trump needs to be able to go back and say he was tough on China. Xi needs to be able to say that he stood up to the white man,” Hayes said.

海斯說：“這將是一筆交易。特朗普需要能夠回去說他對中國很堅強。XI需要能夠說他站在白人身上。”

With tariffs proving politically risky, Hayes thinks the next move will be taxing foreign investment, a quiet form of capital control meant to reduce America's dependence on foreign buyers without spooking domestic voters. This is how you get the American people to swallow a realignment of trade.

由於關稅在政治上有風險，海耶斯認為下一步行動將是對外國投資徵稅，這是一種安靜的資本管制形式，旨在減少美國對外國買家的依賴而不會嚇到國內選民。這就是您讓美國人民吞嚥貿易的方式。

“The only real policy that actually works is capital controls. But would the American people stomach that?” he asked.

“實際上有效的唯一真正的政策是資本控制。但是美國人民會忍受嗎？”他問。

Potentially, there are multiple tools on the table. Not just taxes on foreign-held Treasuries or equities, but more aggressive ideas like forced bond swaps, trading 10-year notes for 100-year paper, or higher withholding taxes on capital gains from U.S. assets.

潛在地，表格上有多種工具。不僅對外國擁有的國債或股票徵稅，而且更具侵略性的想法，例如強制債券掉期，100年紙的10年票據或美國資產的資本利得徵收更高的預扣稅。

It's all part of a strategy to rebalance the financial account without forcing Americans to “buy less stuff,” a message he says no politician can sell.

這是重新平衡金融帳戶而不強迫美國人“少買東西”的戰略的一部分，這是他說沒有政治家可以出售的一條信息。

“Americans don't like to do hard things. They don't want to be told that you have to consume less. They want to be told that we're going to pivot and that we're going to put capital controls on foreigners,” Hayes said.

海斯說：“美國人不喜歡做艱苦的事情。他們不想被告知您必須少消耗。他們想被告知我們要居住，我們將對外國人進行資本管制。”

China, meanwhile, isn't going anywhere. Hayes says it has no choice but to keep buying U.S. assets even if it pretends otherwise.

同時，中國不會去任何地方。海耶斯說，即使假裝否則，它就別無選擇，只能繼續購買我們的資產。

“They have to obfuscate kind of how much stuff they're buying off of America. But if you're doing the math, they just can't stop.”

“他們必須混淆自己從美國購買多少東西。但是，如果您要進行數學算法，他們就無法停止。”