亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）向加密投资者和比特币（BTC）霍德尔（BTC）痴迷于美联储政策

随着美国和中国达成一项贸易协议的英寸，亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）向加密投资者和比特币（BTC）霍德尔（BTC）hodlers痴迷于美联储政策：您正在看着错误的机构。

Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder of crypto exchange FTX, has a warning for bitcoin (BTC) investors: you're obsessing over the wrong U.S. institution.

Crypto Exchange FTX的直言不讳的联合创始人Arthur Hayes警告比特币（BTC）投资者：您对美国错误的机构感到痴迷。

It isn't Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell or the risings rates that matter most, but rather Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is quietly pulling the monetary levers to manage a ballooning U.S. debt load.

它不是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）或最重要的提升率，而是财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent），他悄悄地拉动了货币杠杆来管理激烈的美国债务负担。

“The real show is at the Treasury Department. Ignore the Fed. It doesn't matter,” Hayes told CoinDesk in a recent interview. “Powell didn't matter in 2022 under a Democratic regime, and he doesn't matter now under a Republican one.”

海斯在最近的一次采访中告诉科德斯克：“真正的表演是在财政部。忽略美联储。这没关系。” “鲍威尔在2022年在民主党政权下并不重要，现在他在共和党领导下并不重要。”

For Hayes, the Federal Reserve has become a sideshow. The real lever-pulling is happening under Bessent, who is juggling buybacks and auction strategies to reshape global liquidity.

对于海耶斯来说，美联储已成为杂种。在Bessent下，真正的杠杆正在发生，后者正在兼顾回购和拍卖策略以重塑全球流动性。

“The optimists among us like to say that the U.S. administration is pivoting toward stability and rational economic policies,” Hayes said. “The pessimists might say that the good times are coming to an end and that the U.S. is resorting to desperate measures to avoid default.”

海耶斯说：“我们当中的乐观主义者喜欢说，美国政府正在朝着稳定和理性的经济政策转移。” “悲观主义者可能会说，美好时光即将结束，美国正在采取绝望的措施避免违约。”

Ultimately, both outlooks converge on one point: there will be less, not more, liquidity in the system. And that, in the co-founder's view, bodes well for bitcoin.

最终，两种前景都在某一时刻融合：系统中的流动性将较少，而不是更多。从联合创始人的角度来看，这对于比特币来说是很好的。

“All we care about is whether there are more dollars in the system today than yesterday. That's all that matters. We don't care about the rate of change in the U.S. capital account or the trade balance. None of that matters,” Hayes said.

海斯说：“我们所关心的是，今天系统中的美元是否比昨天多。这很重要。我们不在乎美国资本帐户或贸易余额的变化率。这一切都不重要。”

The co-founder also touched upon the U.S. and China's performative trade diplomacy, which he said will likely culminate in a shallow deal as both sides are forced into cooperation.

该联合创始人还谈到了美国和中国的表演性贸易外交，他说，随着双方被迫合作，这可能会达到浅薄协议。

“It's going to be a deal on the surface. Trump needs to be able to go back and say he was tough on China. Xi needs to be able to say that he stood up to the white man,” Hayes said.

海斯说：“这将是一笔交易。特朗普需要能够回去说他对中国很坚强。XI需要能够说他站在白人身上。”

With tariffs proving politically risky, Hayes thinks the next move will be taxing foreign investment, a quiet form of capital control meant to reduce America's dependence on foreign buyers without spooking domestic voters. This is how you get the American people to swallow a realignment of trade.

由于关税在政治上有风险，海耶斯认为下一步行动将是对外国投资征税，这是一种安静的资本管制形式，旨在减少美国对外国买家的依赖而不会吓到国内选民。这就是您让美国人民吞咽贸易的方式。

“The only real policy that actually works is capital controls. But would the American people stomach that?” he asked.

“实际上有效的唯一真正的政策是资本控制。但是美国人民会忍受吗？”他问。

Potentially, there are multiple tools on the table. Not just taxes on foreign-held Treasuries or equities, but more aggressive ideas like forced bond swaps, trading 10-year notes for 100-year paper, or higher withholding taxes on capital gains from U.S. assets.

潜在地，表格上有多种工具。不仅对外国拥有的国债或股票征税，而且更具侵略性的想法，例如强制债券掉期，100年纸的10年票据或美国资产的资本利得征收更高的预扣税。

It's all part of a strategy to rebalance the financial account without forcing Americans to “buy less stuff,” a message he says no politician can sell.

这是重新平衡金融帐户而不强迫美国人“少买东西”的战略的一部分，这是他说没有政治家可以出售的一条信息。

“Americans don't like to do hard things. They don't want to be told that you have to consume less. They want to be told that we're going to pivot and that we're going to put capital controls on foreigners,” Hayes said.

海斯说：“美国人不喜欢做艰苦的事情。他们不想被告知您必须少消耗。他们想被告知我们要居住，我们将对外国人进行资本管制。”

China, meanwhile, isn't going anywhere. Hayes says it has no choice but to keep buying U.S. assets even if it pretends otherwise.

同时，中国不会去任何地方。海耶斯说，即使假装否则，它就别无选择，只能继续购买我们的资产。

“They have to obfuscate kind of how much stuff they're buying off of America. But if you're doing the math, they just can't stop.”

“他们必须混淆自己从美国购买多少东西。但是，如果您要进行数学算法，他们就无法停止。”