Arthur Hayes 的第一層警告：代幣崩潰即將來臨？

BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 預測，以太坊和 Solana 之外的大多數 Layer 1 代幣未來前景黯淡。代幣崩潰即將來臨嗎？讓我們深入了解一下。

Arthur Hayes' Layer 1 Warning: Token Collapse Incoming?

Arthur Hayes 的第一層警告：代幣崩潰即將來臨？

Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder of BitMEX, isn't mincing words. He's predicting a shakeout in the Layer 1 blockchain space, suggesting that most tokens outside of Ethereum and Solana are living on borrowed time. Buckle up, because it's about to get real.

BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 直言不諱，他的言辭並不拐彎抹角。他預測 Layer 1 區塊鏈領域將發生震盪，這表明以太坊和 Solana 之外的大多數代幣都靠借來的時間生存。係好安全帶，因為它即將成為現實。

The Hayes Prediction: Boom and Bust for L1s

海耶斯預測：L1 的繁榮與蕭條

Hayes argues that many new Layer 1 networks, despite initial hype and investor frenzy, simply lack the fundamentals for long-term survival. He points to the pattern: an initial surge in price fueled by speculation, followed by a dramatic correction as the hype fades. Think of it as the crypto version of a flash in the pan.

Hayes 認為，許多新的 Layer 1 網絡儘管最初有炒作和投資者狂熱，但仍然缺乏長期生存的基礎。他指出了這種模式：最初由投機推動價格飆升，隨後隨著炒作消退而出現大幅調整。將其視為曇花一現的加密版本。

He even called out Monad, a Coinbase Ventures-backed L1, noting its impressive ICO surge but questioning its high fully diluted valuation and low circulating supply. According to Hayes, venture capital support can only prop up prices for so long. Eventually, the music stops.

他甚至點名了 Coinbase Ventures 支持的 L1 Monad，指出其 ICO 激增令人印象深刻，但對其高完全稀釋估值和低流通供應量提出質疑。海耶斯表示，風險投資的支持只能在很長一段時間內支撐價格。最終，音樂停止了。

Ethereum and Solana: The Exceptions to the Rule

以太坊和 Solana：規則的例外

While Hayes is bearish on most L1s, he sees Ethereum and Solana as the exceptions. Ethereum, he believes, is becoming the foundation for institutional blockchain adoption. Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism will help it scale while maintaining privacy, positioning it for sustained growth.

雖然 Hayes 對大多數 L1 持悲觀態度，但他認為以太坊和 Solana 是例外。他認為，以太坊正在成為機構採用區塊鏈的基礎。 Arbitrum 和 Optimism 等 Layer 2 解決方案將幫助其在保持隱私的同時進行擴展，從而實現持續增長。

Solana, on the other hand, has benefited from the meme coin craze, but Hayes acknowledges that this growth has slowed. It'll need a new catalyst to keep users engaged and prices moving. While he doesn't see it surpassing Ethereum, he expects it to remain a significant player.

另一方面，索拉納受益於模因幣熱潮，但海耶斯承認這種增長已經放緩。它需要一種新的催化劑來保持用戶的參與度和價格的變化。雖然他認為它不會超越以太坊，但他預計它仍將是一個重要的參與者。

Beyond Speed and Fees: What L1s Need to Survive

超越速度和費用：L1 生存需要什麼

Mitchell Demeter, CEO of Sonic Labs, echoes a similar sentiment. He argues that the days of competing solely on speed and fees are over. With block space becoming increasingly commoditized, L1s need to offer more than just a faster, cheaper alternative to Ethereum. They need to attract and keep builders and users.

Sonic Labs 首席執行官米切爾·德米特 (Mitchell Demeter) 也表達了類似的觀點。他認為，僅靠速度和費用競爭的時代已經結束。隨著區塊空間日益商品化，L1 需要提供的不僅僅是以太坊更快、更便宜的替代品。他們需要吸引並留住開發者和用戶。

Demeter emphasizes the importance of "builder stickiness" and long-term value capture. This means creating a developer environment that is conducive, unique, and sticky. He suggests exploring Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) to improve the developer experience at the protocol level. One example is EIP-7903, which increases the contract size limit, making it easier to build more complex applications.

Demeter強調“建設者粘性”和長期價值獲取的重要性。這意味著創建一個有利的、獨特的、有粘性的開發環境。他建議探索以太坊改進提案（EIP）以改善協議級別的開發人員體驗。 EIP-7903 就是一個例子，它增加了合約大小限制，從而可以更輕鬆地構建更複雜的應用程序。

He also stresses the importance of tokenomics. Investors want to see clear mechanisms for value creation, value capture, and the return of value to token holders. This could involve burn mechanisms, where tokens are actively removed from circulation, transitioning from an inflationary to a deflationary model.

他還強調了代幣經濟學的重要性。投資者希望看到價值創造、價值獲取以及向代幣持有者返還價值的明確機制。這可能涉及銷毀機制，其中代幣被主動從流通中移除，從通貨膨脹模型轉變為通貨緊縮模型。

Hayes' Magnificent Five (and What it Means for You)

海耶斯的輝煌五人組（及其對您意味著什麼）

Beyond Ethereum and Solana, Hayes also includes Bitcoin, Zcash, and Ethena in his top picks. These networks combine adoption, security, and practical utility, which he sees as crucial for long-term success. What does this mean for you? Do your homework. Don't get caught up in the hype. Look for projects with solid fundamentals, strong communities, and clear use cases.

除了以太坊和 Solana 之外，Hayes 的首選還包括比特幣、Zcash 和 Ethena。這些網絡結合了採用、安全性和實用性，他認為這對於長期成功至關重要。這對你來說意味著什麼？做好你的功課。不要陷入炒作之中。尋找具有堅實基礎、強大社區和明確用例的項目。

Personal Opinion

個人意見

Hayes' prediction, while dire for some, isn't entirely surprising. The crypto space is littered with projects that promised the moon but ultimately failed to deliver. The key takeaway is that not every new Layer 1 is destined for greatness. In fact, most probably aren't. The space is maturing, and investors are becoming more discerning. Solid tech is no longer enough, a solid business model and community are key to longevity.

海耶斯的預測雖然對一些人來說很可怕，但並不完全令人驚訝。加密貨幣領域充斥著許諾登月但最終未能實現的項目。關鍵的一點是，並不是每個新的 Layer 1 都注定會偉大。事實上，很可能不是。這個領域正在成熟，投資者也變得更加挑剔。可靠的技術已經不夠了，可靠的商業模式和社區才是長壽的關鍵。

Look, let's be real. The crypto world can be a wild ride. Fortunes can be made and lost in the blink of an eye. But with a little bit of skepticism and a lot of due diligence, you can navigate the choppy waters and maybe even find some buried treasure. So, keep your head on a swivel, and remember, not every token is going to the moon. Some are headed straight for the ground. Happy investing!

聽著，我們說實話吧。加密世界可能是一場瘋狂的旅程。財富的產生和失去都在眨眼之間。但只要有一點懷疑和大量的盡職調查，你就可以在波濤洶湧的水域中航行，甚至可能找到一些埋藏的寶藏。所以，請保持頭腦清醒，記住，並不是每個代幣都會去月球。有些直接沖向地面。快樂投資！