Arthur Hayes 的第一层警告：代币崩溃即将来临？

BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 预测，除了以太坊和 Solana 之外，大多数 Layer 1 代币的未来都很严峻。代币崩溃即将来临吗？让我们深入了解一下。

Arthur Hayes' Layer 1 Warning: Token Collapse Incoming?

Arthur Hayes 的第一层警告：代币崩溃即将来临？

Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder of BitMEX, isn't mincing words. He's predicting a shakeout in the Layer 1 blockchain space, suggesting that most tokens outside of Ethereum and Solana are living on borrowed time. Buckle up, because it's about to get real.

BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 直言不讳，他的言辞并不拐弯抹角。他预测 Layer 1 区块链领域将发生震荡，这表明以太坊和 Solana 之外的大多数代币都靠借来的时间生存。系好安全带，因为它即将成为现实。

The Hayes Prediction: Boom and Bust for L1s

海耶斯预测：L1 的繁荣与萧条

Hayes argues that many new Layer 1 networks, despite initial hype and investor frenzy, simply lack the fundamentals for long-term survival. He points to the pattern: an initial surge in price fueled by speculation, followed by a dramatic correction as the hype fades. Think of it as the crypto version of a flash in the pan.

海耶斯认为，许多新的第一层网络尽管最初有炒作和投资者狂热，但根本缺乏长期生存的基础。他指出了这种模式：最初由投机推动价格飙升，随后随着炒作消退而出现大幅调整。将其视为昙花一现的加密版本。

He even called out Monad, a Coinbase Ventures-backed L1, noting its impressive ICO surge but questioning its high fully diluted valuation and low circulating supply. According to Hayes, venture capital support can only prop up prices for so long. Eventually, the music stops.

他甚至点名了 Coinbase Ventures 支持的 L1 Monad，指出其 ICO 激增令人印象深刻，但对其高完全稀释估值和低流通供应量提出质疑。海耶斯表示，风险投资的支持只能在很长一段时间内支撑价格。最终，音乐停止了。

Ethereum and Solana: The Exceptions to the Rule

以太坊和 Solana：规则的例外

While Hayes is bearish on most L1s, he sees Ethereum and Solana as the exceptions. Ethereum, he believes, is becoming the foundation for institutional blockchain adoption. Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism will help it scale while maintaining privacy, positioning it for sustained growth.

虽然 Hayes 对大多数 L1 持悲观态度，但他认为以太坊和 Solana 是例外。他认为，以太坊正在成为机构采用区块链的基础。 Arbitrum 和 Optimism 等 Layer 2 解决方案将帮助其在保持隐私的同时进行扩展，从而实现持续增长。

Solana, on the other hand, has benefited from the meme coin craze, but Hayes acknowledges that this growth has slowed. It'll need a new catalyst to keep users engaged and prices moving. While he doesn't see it surpassing Ethereum, he expects it to remain a significant player.

另一方面，索拉纳受益于模因币热潮，但海耶斯承认这种增长已经放缓。它需要一种新的催化剂来保持用户的参与度和价格的变化。虽然他不认为它会超越以太坊，但他预计它仍将是一个重要的参与者。

Beyond Speed and Fees: What L1s Need to Survive

超越速度和费用：L1 生存需要什么

Mitchell Demeter, CEO of Sonic Labs, echoes a similar sentiment. He argues that the days of competing solely on speed and fees are over. With block space becoming increasingly commoditized, L1s need to offer more than just a faster, cheaper alternative to Ethereum. They need to attract and keep builders and users.

Sonic Labs 首席执行官米切尔·德米特 (Mitchell Demeter) 也表达了类似的观点。他认为，仅靠速度和费用竞争的时代已经结束。随着区块空间日益商品化，L1 需要提供的不仅仅是以太坊更快、更便宜的替代品。他们需要吸引并留住开发者和用户。

Demeter emphasizes the importance of "builder stickiness" and long-term value capture. This means creating a developer environment that is conducive, unique, and sticky. He suggests exploring Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) to improve the developer experience at the protocol level. One example is EIP-7903, which increases the contract size limit, making it easier to build more complex applications.

Demeter强调“建设者粘性”和长期价值获取的重要性。这意味着创建一个有利的、独特的、有粘性的开发环境。他建议探索以太坊改进提案（EIP）以改善协议级别的开发人员体验。 EIP-7903 就是一个例子，它增加了合约大小限制，从而可以更轻松地构建更复杂的应用程序。

He also stresses the importance of tokenomics. Investors want to see clear mechanisms for value creation, value capture, and the return of value to token holders. This could involve burn mechanisms, where tokens are actively removed from circulation, transitioning from an inflationary to a deflationary model.

他还强调了代币经济学的重要性。投资者希望看到价值创造、价值获取以及向代币持有者返还价值的明确机制。这可能涉及销毁机制，其中代币被主动从流通中移除，从通货膨胀模型转变为通货紧缩模型。

Hayes' Magnificent Five (and What it Means for You)

海耶斯的辉煌五人组（及其对您意味着什么）

Beyond Ethereum and Solana, Hayes also includes Bitcoin, Zcash, and Ethena in his top picks. These networks combine adoption, security, and practical utility, which he sees as crucial for long-term success. What does this mean for you? Do your homework. Don't get caught up in the hype. Look for projects with solid fundamentals, strong communities, and clear use cases.

除了以太坊和 Solana 之外，Hayes 的首选还包括比特币、Zcash 和 Ethena。这些网络结合了采用、安全性和实用性，他认为这对于长期成功至关重要。这对你来说意味着什么？做好你的功课。不要陷入炒作之中。寻找具有坚实基础、强大社区和明确用例的项目。

Personal Opinion

个人意见

Hayes' prediction, while dire for some, isn't entirely surprising. The crypto space is littered with projects that promised the moon but ultimately failed to deliver. The key takeaway is that not every new Layer 1 is destined for greatness. In fact, most probably aren't. The space is maturing, and investors are becoming more discerning. Solid tech is no longer enough, a solid business model and community are key to longevity.

海耶斯的预测虽然对一些人来说很可怕，但并不完全令人惊讶。加密货币领域充斥着许诺登月但最终未能实现的项目。关键的一点是，并不是每个新的 Layer 1 都注定会伟大。事实上，很可能不是。这个领域正在成熟，投资者也变得更加挑剔。可靠的技术已经不够了，可靠的商业模式和社区才是长寿的关键。

Look, let's be real. The crypto world can be a wild ride. Fortunes can be made and lost in the blink of an eye. But with a little bit of skepticism and a lot of due diligence, you can navigate the choppy waters and maybe even find some buried treasure. So, keep your head on a swivel, and remember, not every token is going to the moon. Some are headed straight for the ground. Happy investing!

听着，我们说实话吧。加密世界可能是一场疯狂的旅程。财富的产生和失去都在眨眼之间。但只要有一点怀疑和大量的尽职调查，你就可以在波涛汹涌的水域中航行，甚至可能找到一些埋藏的宝藏。所以，请保持头脑清醒，记住，并不是每个代币都会去月球。有些直接冲向地面。快乐投资！