Arthur Hayes 指出了比特幣停滯的關鍵因素

BitMEX 聯合創辦人兼前執行長 Arthur Hayes 表示，近期聯準會降息可能不會產生重大影響

BitMEX co-founder and former CEO Arthur Hayes has shared his thoughts on the recent U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut and its minimal impact on Bitcoin (BTC) price.

BitMEX 聯合創始人兼前執行長 Arthur Hayes 分享了他對最近聯準會降息及其對比特幣 (BTC) 價格影響的看法。

While many anticipated the announcement of a rate cut to spark a price increase, Bitcoin has shown little change. According to Hayes, this occurrence can be attributed to the substantial capital withdrawal from traditional markets due to reverse repurchase agreements (reverse repos).

儘管許多人預計降息的宣布將引發價格上漲，但比特幣幾乎沒有變化。海耶斯認為，這種情況的發生可歸因於逆回購協議（reverse repos）導致傳統市場大量資金撤離。

Arthur Hayes Pinpoints Key Factor in Bitcoin Stagnation

Arthur Hayes 指出了比特幣停滯的關鍵因素

As explained by Hayes, reverse repos currently offer an interest rate of 5.3%, surpassing the 4.38% rate of Treasury bills. This differential leads money market funds to allocate their cash into reverse repos over Treasury bills, ultimately reducing the capital available in the market. As a result, there is less potential for investment in risky assets like Bitcoin.

海耶斯解釋說，逆回購目前的利率為5.3%，超過國庫券4.38%的利率。這種差異導致貨幣市場基金將現金配置為國庫券的逆回購，最終減少市場上可用的資本。因此，投資比特幣等風險資產的潛力較小。

The capital shift has been substantial, with an extra $120 billion pouring into reverse repos following the Fed's announcement of a rate cut. This trend counters the conventional wisdom that lower interest rates typically boost high-risk investments such as digital currencies. Hayes suggests that this capital shift is a primary factor in explaining Bitcoin's price stagnation.

資本轉移是巨大的，在聯準會宣布降息後，額外的 1,200 億美元湧入逆回購。這一趨勢與傳統觀點相反，即較低的利率通常會促進數位貨幣等高風險投資。海耶斯認為，這種資本轉移是解釋比特幣價格停滯的主要因素。

Bitcoin Price Unmoved by Anticipated Rate Cuts

比特幣價格不受預期降息的影響

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the Federal Reserve’s policy will likely include more rate cuts. However, the probability estimates indicate the Fed's cautious approach, with a 69% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the September 18 meeting and a 31% chance of a 50 basis point cut. Despite these anticipated cuts, Bitcoin price has not increased as expected.

根據芝商所聯準會觀察工具，聯準會的政策可能包括更多降息。然而，機率估計顯示聯準會採取謹慎態度，9月18日會議上降息25個基點的可能性為69%，降息50個基點的可能性為31%。儘管出現了這些預期的降價，但比特幣價格並未如預期上漲。

This occurrence suggests that the assumption of traditional market trends applying to cryptocurrencies may not hold true.

這種情況表明，適用於加密貨幣的傳統市場趨勢的假設可能並不成立。

As Hayes points out, the capital flowing into reverse repos, which are essentially a “parking lot” for large financial institutions, absorbs liquidity that would otherwise be used to purchase Bitcoin. This mechanism negates the expected positive effects of lower interest rates on risk assets.

正如海斯指出的那樣，流入逆回購的資本本質上是大型金融機構的“停車場”，吸收了原本用於購買比特幣的流動性。此機制否定了較低利率對風險資產的預期正面影響。

The market appears to be prioritizing these safer investment avenues, which offer substantial returns without the risks associated with cryptocurrencies.

市場似乎優先考慮這些更安全的投資途徑，這些途徑可以提供可觀的回報，且沒有與加密貨幣相關的風險。

Bitcoin Price Struggles Despite Favorable Fed Policies

儘管聯準會政策有利，比特幣價格仍舉步維艱

Despite the accommodative measures undertaken by the Federal Reserve, the overall market sentiment toward Bitcoin remains neutral. Investors are showing a stronger preference for investing in reverse repos due to their higher and safer returns. This trend is expected to continue in the upcoming period, making it difficult for the price of Bitcoin to experience any significant increase in the short term.

儘管聯準會採取了寬鬆措施，但市場對比特幣的整體情緒仍保持中性。由於逆回購的回報更高、更安全，投資者對投資逆回購表現出更強烈的偏好。預計未來一段時間這種趨勢還會持續，比特幣價格短期內很難大幅上漲。

According to Hayes, the market dynamics have shifted, rendering conventional beliefs about interest rates and high-risk investments obsolete. He highlights that Bitcoin price is unlikely to rise substantially without a change in the reverse repo market or other economic factors. This scenario suggests that the relationship between monetary policy and cryptocurrency markets is more complex than previously assumed.

海耶斯表示，市場動態已經發生變化，使得有關利率和高風險投資的傳統觀念變得過時。他強調，如果逆回購市場或其他經濟因素沒有變化，比特幣價格不太可能大幅上漲。這種情況顯示貨幣政策和加密貨幣市場之間的關係比先前假設的更加複雜。