Arthur Hayes 指出了比特币停滞的关键因素

BitMEX 联合创始人兼前首席执行官 Arthur Hayes 表示，近期美联储降息可能不会产生重大影响

BitMEX co-founder and former CEO Arthur Hayes has shared his thoughts on the recent U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut and its minimal impact on Bitcoin (BTC) price.

BitMEX 联合创始人兼前首席执行官 Arthur Hayes 分享了他对最近美联储降息及其对比特币 (BTC) 价格影响的看法。

While many anticipated the announcement of a rate cut to spark a price increase, Bitcoin has shown little change. According to Hayes, this occurrence can be attributed to the substantial capital withdrawal from traditional markets due to reverse repurchase agreements (reverse repos).

尽管许多人预计降息的宣布将引发价格上涨，但比特币几乎没有变化。海耶斯认为，这种情况的发生可归因于逆回购协议（reverse repos）导致传统市场大量资金撤出。

Arthur Hayes Pinpoints Key Factor in Bitcoin Stagnation

Arthur Hayes 指出了比特币停滞的关键因素

As explained by Hayes, reverse repos currently offer an interest rate of 5.3%, surpassing the 4.38% rate of Treasury bills. This differential leads money market funds to allocate their cash into reverse repos over Treasury bills, ultimately reducing the capital available in the market. As a result, there is less potential for investment in risky assets like Bitcoin.

海耶斯解释说，逆回购目前的利率为5.3%，超过国库券4.38%的利率。这种差异导致货币市场基金将现金配置为国库券的逆回购，最终减少市场上的可用资本。因此，投资比特币等风险资产的潜力较小。

The capital shift has been substantial, with an extra $120 billion pouring into reverse repos following the Fed's announcement of a rate cut. This trend counters the conventional wisdom that lower interest rates typically boost high-risk investments such as digital currencies. Hayes suggests that this capital shift is a primary factor in explaining Bitcoin's price stagnation.

资本转移是巨大的，在美联储宣布降息后，额外的 1,200 亿美元涌入逆回购。这一趋势与传统观点相反，即较低的利率通常会促进数字货币等高风险投资。海耶斯认为，这种资本转移是解释比特币价格停滞的主要因素。

Bitcoin Price Unmoved by Anticipated Rate Cuts

比特币价格不受预期降息的影响

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the Federal Reserve’s policy will likely include more rate cuts. However, the probability estimates indicate the Fed's cautious approach, with a 69% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the September 18 meeting and a 31% chance of a 50 basis point cut. Despite these anticipated cuts, Bitcoin price has not increased as expected.

根据芝商所美联储观察工具，美联储的政策可能包括更多降息。然而，概率估计表明美联储采取谨慎态度，9月18日会议上降息25个基点的可能性为69%，降息50个基点的可能性为31%。尽管出现了这些预期的降价，但比特币价格并未按预期上涨。

This occurrence suggests that the assumption of traditional market trends applying to cryptocurrencies may not hold true.

这种情况表明，适用于加密货币的传统市场趋势的假设可能并不成立。

As Hayes points out, the capital flowing into reverse repos, which are essentially a “parking lot” for large financial institutions, absorbs liquidity that would otherwise be used to purchase Bitcoin. This mechanism negates the expected positive effects of lower interest rates on risk assets.

正如海斯指出的那样，流入逆回购的资本本质上是大型金融机构的“停车场”，吸收了原本用于购买比特币的流动性。这种机制否定了较低利率对风险资产的预期积极影响。

The market appears to be prioritizing these safer investment avenues, which offer substantial returns without the risks associated with cryptocurrencies.

市场似乎优先考虑这些更安全的投资途径，这些途径可以提供可观的回报，且没有与加密货币相关的风险。

Bitcoin Price Struggles Despite Favorable Fed Policies

尽管美联储政策有利，比特币价格仍举步维艰

Despite the accommodative measures undertaken by the Federal Reserve, the overall market sentiment toward Bitcoin remains neutral. Investors are showing a stronger preference for investing in reverse repos due to their higher and safer returns. This trend is expected to continue in the upcoming period, making it difficult for the price of Bitcoin to experience any significant increase in the short term.

尽管美联储采取了宽松措施，但市场对比特币的整体情绪仍保持中性。由于逆回购的回报更高、更安全，投资者对投资逆回购表现出更强烈的偏好。预计未来一段时间这种趋势还将持续，比特币价格短期内很难出现大幅上涨。

According to Hayes, the market dynamics have shifted, rendering conventional beliefs about interest rates and high-risk investments obsolete. He highlights that Bitcoin price is unlikely to rise substantially without a change in the reverse repo market or other economic factors. This scenario suggests that the relationship between monetary policy and cryptocurrency markets is more complex than previously assumed.

海耶斯表示，市场动态已经发生变化，使得有关利率和高风险投资的传统观念变得过时。他强调，如果逆回购市场或其他经济因素不发生变化，比特币价格不太可能大幅上涨。这种情况表明货币政策和加密货币市场之间的关系比之前假设的更加复杂。