美元的三個行為

八十年的美元歷史可以看作是三幕劇。

Eight decades of dollar history can be read as a three-act play.

八十年的美元歷史可以看作是三幕劇。

Act I was the Eurodollar—off-shore bank deposits that sprang up in 1950s London so the Soviet bloc, European exporters, and eventually every multinational could hold dollars outside U.S. regulation, spawning a multi-trillion-dollar shadow banking base.

第一幕是歐洲人的歐洲 - 戶外銀行存款，該銀行存款在1950年代倫敦出現，因此蘇聯集團，歐洲出口商，最終每個跨國公司都可以在美國法規之外持有美元，從而產生了數万億美元的影子銀行業務基礎。

Act II was the Petrodollar. After 1974, OPEC’s decision to price crude in dollars hard-wired global energy demand to U.S. currency and gave Washington an automatic bid for its Treasury bills.

第二幕是petrodollar。 1974年後，歐佩克決定以美元為美元的全球能源需求定價為美國貨幣，並給華盛頓自動競標其國庫賬單。

Act III is unfolding now. USD-backed Stabledollars (a.k.a. stablecoins)—on-chain tokens fully collateralized by T-bills and cash—have leapt past $230 billion in circulating supply and, on many days, settle more value than PayPal and Western Union combined. The dollar has reinvented itself again—this time as a monetary API: a permissionless, programmable unit that clears in seconds for a fraction of a cent.

第三幕正在展開。由美元支持的Stabledlars（又名Stablecoins）（鍊鍊令牌）（由T-Bills和Cash完全抵押）已經躍升了超過2,300億美元的循環供應，並且在很多天中，與Paypal和Western Union合併了更多的價值。美元又重新發明了自己 - 這段時間是貨幣API：無許可的，可編程的單位，在幾秒鐘內清除了一百分之一的。

Follow the incentives and the shape of the future appears. A Lagos merchant can accept USDC on her phone, skip 20% naira slippage, and restock inventory the same afternoon. A Singapore hedge fund parks cash in tokenized T-bill vaults yielding 4.9%, then routes those dollars into a swap at 8 a.m. New-York time without a correspondent bank. A Colombian gig worker converts weekend wages to digital dollars, bypasses capital controls, and withdraws pesos at a neighborhood ATM—no Friday-to-Monday lag, no 7% remit fee.

遵循激勵措施和未來的形狀。拉各斯商人可以在她的手機上接受USDC，在同一天下午跳過20％的Naira Slippage和Restock庫存。新加坡對沖基金將現金現投入令牌的T-bill保庫中，產生4.9％，然後將這些美元在沒有通訊銀行的紐約時段將這些美元匯入掉期交換。一名哥倫比亞演出的工作人員將周末的工資轉換為數字美元，繞過資本管制，並在附近的ATM上撤回比索 - 沒有星期五到週五的滯後，沒有7％的匯款費。

Stablecoins haven’t replaced the banking system; they have tunneled around its slowest, most expensive choke points.

Stablecoins尚未取代銀行系統；他們在最慢的，最昂貴的扼流圈點上隧道了。

Scale begets legitimacy. The GENIUS Act moving through the U.S. Senate would charter stable-coin issuers nationally and, for the first time, open a path to Fed master accounts. Treasury staff already model a $2 trillion stable-coin float by 2028—enough to rival the entire Eurodollar stock of the early 1990s.

規模成為合法性。通過美國參議院的《天才法》將在全國范圍內將穩定的發行人租用，這是第一次開放一條養活主賬戶的道路。財政部人員到2028年已經建立了2萬億美元穩定的石油貨架，以與1990年代初期的整個歐洲股票相媲美。

That projection is plausible: Tether and Circle command over 90% share with reserves lodged almost entirely in short-dated U.S. debt, meaning foreigners are effectively holding digitized T-bills that settle in 30 seconds. The dollar’s network-effect is migrating from SWIFT messages to smart-contract calls, extending hegemony without printing a single new note.

該預測是合理的：束縛和圈子指揮90％以上的份額超過90％的儲備，幾乎完全是在短期的美國債務中，這意味著外國人有效地持有在30秒內定居的數字化的T-Bills。美元的網絡效應正在從迅速消息遷移到智能合同電話，在不打印單個新音符的情況下擴展了霸權。

Yet, the Stabledollar epoch is no risk-free triumph. Private tokens that wrap sovereign money raise hard questions. Who conducts monetary policy when a third of the offshore float lives in smart contracts? What recourse does a Venezuelan family have if an issuer black-lists its wallet? Will Europe—or the BRICS—tolerate a rails-level dependence on a U.S.-regulated asset? These are governance puzzles, but they are solvable if policymakers treat stablecoins as critical dollar infrastructure, not as speculative irritants.

但是，Stabledlar時代沒有無風險的勝利。包裹主權資金的私人令牌提出了艱難的問題。當三分之一的海上浮動生活在智能合約中時，誰執行貨幣政策？如果發行人的黑色列表其錢包，委內瑞拉一家人會有什麼追索權？歐洲（或金磚國家）是否會對鐵路級的依賴對美國監管的資產進行統計？這些是治理難題，但如果決策者將穩定劑視為關鍵的美元基礎設施，而不是投機性刺激性，則可以解決。

The playbook is straightforward: Block incoming good chain activity.set up a new Architecture for Financial Innovation in the White House to coordinateoperability and defects. Finally, Congress should pass legislation to chartstable-coin, issuers nationally, creating a legal framework for on-chain,dollar assets and, importantly, providing a path for issuers to gainaccess to Federal Reserve master accounts.

劇本很簡單：良好的良好連鎖活動。為白宮的金融創新設置新的建築，以協調性和缺陷。最後，國會應將立法通過全國發行人進行Chartstable-Coin，為鏈上，美元資產創建法律框架，並重要地為發行人提供了一條途徑，使發行人獲得了美聯儲的主賬戶。

Do that, and the United States creates a digital-dollar moat wider than any rival’s CBDC, including China’s. Shrug, and issuance will migrate offshore, leaving Washington to police a shadow system it no longer controls.

這樣做，美國創造了比任何競爭對手的CBDC（包括中國）更寬的數字護城河。聳聳肩，發行將遷移海上，使華盛頓不再控制陰影系統。

Dollar hegemony has always advanced by hitching itself to the dominant trade flow of the age: Eurodollars financed post-war reconstruction; petrodollars lubricated the fossil-fuel century; Stabledollars are wiring the high-velocity, software-eaten economy.

美元的霸權一直是通過將自己搭配到當時的主要貿易流程中的前進：歐洲紀念品融資了戰後重建；石油潤滑化石燃料世紀； Stabledlars正在接線高速，軟件食化的經濟。

Ten years from now, you won’t see them; they will simply be the water we swim in. Your local café will quote prices in pesos or pounds but settle in tokenized dollars under the hood. Brokerages will sell “notes” that are really bearer instruments programmable for collateral calls. Payroll will arrive in a wallet that auto-routes savings, investments, and charitable gifts the instant it clears.

從現在開始的十年後，您將不會看到它們；它們將只是我們游泳的水。您當地的咖啡館將以比索或磅的價格引用價格，但在引擎蓋下定居下來。經紀公司將出售“筆記”，這些筆記實際上是可編程的抵押電話。薪資將到達一塊錢包，該錢包可以自動儲蓄，投資和慈善禮物，以清除它。

The only open question is whether the United States will steward the upgrade it accidentally birthed. Stablecoins are already the fastest-growing quasi-sovereign asset class. Harness them with serious rules and the dollar’s third great reinvention writes itself. Ignore them, and that future still arrives—just without the U.S. in the driver’s seat.

唯一的開放問題是美國是否會導致其意外誕生的升級。穩定劑已經是增長最快的準資產類別。利用他們的嚴格規則和美元的第三次重塑寫作。忽略它們，而未來仍然到了 - 只是沒有美國座位。