美元的三个行为

八十年的美元历史可以看作是三幕剧。

Eight decades of dollar history can be read as a three-act play.

八十年的美元历史可以看作是三幕剧。

Act I was the Eurodollar—off-shore bank deposits that sprang up in 1950s London so the Soviet bloc, European exporters, and eventually every multinational could hold dollars outside U.S. regulation, spawning a multi-trillion-dollar shadow banking base.

第一幕是欧洲人的欧洲 - 户外银行存款，该银行存款在1950年代伦敦出现，因此苏联集团，欧洲出口商，最终每个跨国公司都可以在美国法规之外持有美元，从而产生了数万亿美元的影子银行业务基础。

Act II was the Petrodollar. After 1974, OPEC’s decision to price crude in dollars hard-wired global energy demand to U.S. currency and gave Washington an automatic bid for its Treasury bills.

第二幕是petrodollar。 1974年后，欧佩克决定以美元为美元的全球能源需求定价为美国货币，并给华盛顿自动竞标其国库账单。

Act III is unfolding now. USD-backed Stabledollars (a.k.a. stablecoins)—on-chain tokens fully collateralized by T-bills and cash—have leapt past $230 billion in circulating supply and, on many days, settle more value than PayPal and Western Union combined. The dollar has reinvented itself again—this time as a monetary API: a permissionless, programmable unit that clears in seconds for a fraction of a cent.

第三幕正在展开。由美元支持的Stabledlars（又名Stablecoins）（链链令牌）（由T-Bills和Cash完全抵押）已经跃升了超过2,300亿美元的循环供应，并且在很多天中，与Paypal和Western Union合并了更多的价值。美元又重新发明了自己 - 这段时间是货币API：无许可的，可编程的单位，在几秒钟内清除了一百分之一的。

Follow the incentives and the shape of the future appears. A Lagos merchant can accept USDC on her phone, skip 20% naira slippage, and restock inventory the same afternoon. A Singapore hedge fund parks cash in tokenized T-bill vaults yielding 4.9%, then routes those dollars into a swap at 8 a.m. New-York time without a correspondent bank. A Colombian gig worker converts weekend wages to digital dollars, bypasses capital controls, and withdraws pesos at a neighborhood ATM—no Friday-to-Monday lag, no 7% remit fee.

遵循激励措施和未来的形状。拉各斯商人可以在她的手机上接受USDC，在同一天下午跳过20％的Naira Slippage和Restock库存。新加坡对冲基金将现金现投入令牌的T-bill保库中，产生4.9％，然后将这些美元在没有通讯银行的纽约时段将这些美元汇入掉期交换。一名哥伦比亚演出的工作人员将周末的工资转换为数字美元，绕过资本管制，并在附近的ATM上撤回比索 - 没有星期五到周五的滞后，没有7％的汇款费。

Stablecoins haven’t replaced the banking system; they have tunneled around its slowest, most expensive choke points.

Stablecoins尚未取代银行系统；他们在最慢的，最昂贵的扼流圈点上隧道了。

Scale begets legitimacy. The GENIUS Act moving through the U.S. Senate would charter stable-coin issuers nationally and, for the first time, open a path to Fed master accounts. Treasury staff already model a $2 trillion stable-coin float by 2028—enough to rival the entire Eurodollar stock of the early 1990s.

规模成为合法性。通过美国参议院的《天才法》将在全国范围内将稳定的发行人租用，这是第一次开放一条养活主账户的道路。财政部人员到2028年已经建立了2万亿美元稳定的石油货架，以与1990年代初期的整个欧洲股票相媲美。

That projection is plausible: Tether and Circle command over 90% share with reserves lodged almost entirely in short-dated U.S. debt, meaning foreigners are effectively holding digitized T-bills that settle in 30 seconds. The dollar’s network-effect is migrating from SWIFT messages to smart-contract calls, extending hegemony without printing a single new note.

该预测是合理的：束缚和圈子指挥90％以上的份额超过90％的储备，几乎完全是在短期的美国债务中，这意味着外国人有效地持有在30秒内定居的数字化的T-Bills。美元的网络效应正在从迅速消息迁移到智能合同电话，在不打印单个新音符的情况下扩展了霸权。

Yet, the Stabledollar epoch is no risk-free triumph. Private tokens that wrap sovereign money raise hard questions. Who conducts monetary policy when a third of the offshore float lives in smart contracts? What recourse does a Venezuelan family have if an issuer black-lists its wallet? Will Europe—or the BRICS—tolerate a rails-level dependence on a U.S.-regulated asset? These are governance puzzles, but they are solvable if policymakers treat stablecoins as critical dollar infrastructure, not as speculative irritants.

但是，Stabledlar时代没有无风险的胜利。包裹主权资金的私人令牌提出了艰难的问题。当三分之一的海上浮动生活在智能合约中时，谁执行货币政策？如果发行人的黑色列表其钱包，委内瑞拉一家人会有什么追索权？欧洲（或金砖国家）是否会对铁路级的依赖对美国监管的资产进行统计？这些是治理难题，但如果决策者将稳定剂视为关键的美元基础设施，而不是投机性刺激性，则可以解决。

The playbook is straightforward: Block incoming good chain activity.set up a new Architecture for Financial Innovation in the White House to coordinateoperability and defects. Finally, Congress should pass legislation to chartstable-coin, issuers nationally, creating a legal framework for on-chain,dollar assets and, importantly, providing a path for issuers to gainaccess to Federal Reserve master accounts.

剧本很简单：良好的良好连锁活动。为白宫的金融创新设置新的建筑，以协调性和缺陷。最后，国会应将立法通过全国发行人进行Chartstable-Coin，为链上，美元资产创建法律框架，并重要地为发行人提供了一条途径，使发行人获得了美联储的主账户。

Do that, and the United States creates a digital-dollar moat wider than any rival’s CBDC, including China’s. Shrug, and issuance will migrate offshore, leaving Washington to police a shadow system it no longer controls.

这样做，美国创造了比任何竞争对手的CBDC（包括中国）更宽的数字护城河。耸耸肩，发行将迁移海上，使华盛顿不再控制阴影系统。

Dollar hegemony has always advanced by hitching itself to the dominant trade flow of the age: Eurodollars financed post-war reconstruction; petrodollars lubricated the fossil-fuel century; Stabledollars are wiring the high-velocity, software-eaten economy.

美元的霸权一直是通过将自己搭配到当时的主要贸易流程中的前进：欧洲纪念品融资了战后重建；石油润滑化石燃料世纪； Stabledlars正在接线高速，软件食化的经济。

Ten years from now, you won’t see them; they will simply be the water we swim in. Your local café will quote prices in pesos or pounds but settle in tokenized dollars under the hood. Brokerages will sell “notes” that are really bearer instruments programmable for collateral calls. Payroll will arrive in a wallet that auto-routes savings, investments, and charitable gifts the instant it clears.

从现在开始的十年后，您将不会看到它们；它们将只是我们游泳的水。您当地的咖啡馆将以比索或磅的价格引用价格，但在引擎盖下定居下来。经纪公司将出售“笔记”，这些笔记实际上是可编程的抵押电话。薪资将到达一块钱包，该钱包可以自动储蓄，投资和慈善礼物，以清除它。

The only open question is whether the United States will steward the upgrade it accidentally birthed. Stablecoins are already the fastest-growing quasi-sovereign asset class. Harness them with serious rules and the dollar’s third great reinvention writes itself. Ignore them, and that future still arrives—just without the U.S. in the driver’s seat.

唯一的开放问题是美国是否会导致其意外诞生的升级。稳定剂已经是增长最快的准资产类别。利用他们的严格规则和美元的第三次重塑写作。忽略它们，而未来仍然到了 - 只是没有美国座位。