Is the MACD bottom divergence at the monthly level suitable for long-term layout?

A MACD bottom divergence on the monthly chart signals long-term bullish potential, often marking the end of a crypto bear market.

Jul 06, 2025 at 10:43 am

What Is MACD Bottom Divergence at the Monthly Level?

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a widely used technical indicator in trading, including cryptocurrency markets. Bottom divergence occurs when the price of an asset makes a lower low, but the MACD line forms a higher low. This suggests weakening downward momentum and a potential reversal to the upside.

When this pattern appears on the monthly chart, it indicates a long-term shift in momentum. The monthly timeframe is critical for investors who are considering long-term positions, as it filters out short-term volatility and reflects broader market sentiment. In the context of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum, such signals can be pivotal in determining whether a bear market is ending.

How to Identify MACD Bottom Divergence on Monthly Charts

Identifying MACD bottom divergence requires careful observation of both price action and the MACD histogram:

• Look for a lower low in price over two distinct periods on the monthly chart.
• At the same time, observe the MACD line: if it forms a higher low, this confirms the divergence.
• Confirm with the histogram bars shrinking between the two lows, showing decreasing bearish momentum.
• Some traders also use the signal line crossover following the divergence as additional confirmation.

For example, during the 2018–2019 Bitcoin bear market, there was a clear MACD bottom divergence on the monthly chart before the 2020 bull run began. Traders who recognized this signal had the opportunity to enter early.

Why Monthly-Level Signals Matter in Crypto

Cryptocurrencies are known for their high volatility, which often creates misleading signals on shorter timeframes. However, monthly-level patterns tend to be more reliable because they reflect institutional behavior, macroeconomic cycles, and broader adoption trends.

In particular, long-term investors rely on these charts to avoid emotional decisions driven by short-term price swings. When a MACD bottom divergence appears on the monthly chart, it may suggest that large players are starting to accumulate, even while retail traders panic.

This kind of divergence doesn’t guarantee a reversal, but it provides a statistically significant edge when combined with other fundamental or technical indicators like volume analysis or on-chain metrics.

Combining MACD Divergence With Other Indicators for Confirmation

Relying solely on MACD bottom divergence can be risky. To increase confidence, especially for long-term investments, consider combining it with other tools:

• Volume Profile: A rising volume profile during the second low of the divergence suggests accumulation.
• On-Chain Metrics: Tools like the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) or MVRV-Z Score can confirm whether the market is undervalued.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): If RSI is forming higher lows alongside MACD, it strengthens the case for a reversal.
• Fundamental Factors: Events like halvings, ETF approvals, or macroeconomic easing can support the technical signal.

Each of these layers adds depth to the analysis and reduces false positives. For instance, a Bitcoin monthly chart showing MACD divergence combined with a historically low MVRV-Z score might indicate a high-probability entry point.

Practical Steps to Use MACD Bottom Divergence for Long-Term Entry

If you're considering a long-term layout based on MACD bottom divergence, here’s how to approach it methodically:

• Step 1: Switch your chart to the monthly timeframe and ensure the data is accurate and not repainted.
• Step 2: Enable the MACD indicator with standard settings (12, 26, 9), unless backtesting shows better results with adjusted values.
• Step 3: Scan for recent price action where the current low is lower than the previous swing low.
• Step 4: Compare the corresponding MACD line values; if the current MACD low is higher than the prior one, divergence exists.
• Step 5: Wait for a confirmation candlestick or signal line cross above zero to reduce false entries.
• Step 6: Set a stop-loss below the most recent swing low to manage risk effectively.
• Step 7: Consider scaling into the position rather than investing a lump sum immediately.

These steps help filter noise and focus on high-quality setups that align with long-term investment goals.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What timeframes should I check alongside the monthly MACD divergence?

While the monthly chart gives the primary signal, checking the weekly and daily charts helps refine entry points. Weekly charts can confirm whether the trend is turning bullish, and daily charts assist in timing entries with smaller stop-loss zones.

Can MACD divergence fail on the monthly level?

Yes, no indicator is foolproof. Even on the monthly chart, MACD divergence can lead to false signals, especially during prolonged bear markets or unexpected regulatory events. That's why confirming with volume and on-chain metrics is crucial.

Should I use leverage when entering based on monthly MACD divergence?

It is generally advised not to use leverage for long-term layouts based on technical divergences. Leverage increases risk, and divergence-based trades may take months to play out. Patience and proper risk management are key.

Does MACD bottom divergence work equally well for all cryptocurrencies?

No, its effectiveness varies depending on market capitalization and liquidity. It works best for major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have sufficient historical data and institutional interest. Lower-cap altcoins may show frequent false divergences due to manipulation and thin order books.