Can you chase if the volume breaks through the previous high but the turnover rate is low?

A surge in trading volume with low turnover may signal manipulation or whale activity, suggesting caution for traders chasing price moves.

Jun 28, 2025 at 08:00 pm

Understanding Volume and Turnover Rate in Cryptocurrency Trading

In the cryptocurrency market, volume refers to the total number of coins or tokens traded over a specific period. It is often used as an indicator of market activity and interest. When volume breaks through a previous high, it suggests that there is increased buying or selling pressure compared to earlier levels.

However, the turnover rate, which measures how frequently assets are bought and sold within a given time frame, may not always align with volume spikes. A low turnover rate during a volume breakout implies that although more units are being transacted, the number of participants or frequency of trades might be limited.

This divergence raises an important question: can you chase the price when volume surges but turnover remains low?

What Causes Low Turnover During High Volume?

Several factors can lead to this situation:

• Large whale transactions: One or two major holders could be moving large amounts of crypto, creating high volume without involving many smaller traders.
• Market manipulation: Some entities may artificially inflate volume using wash trading while keeping real participation minimal.
• Low retail participation: Retail investors may not be actively involved despite rising volume, possibly due to uncertainty or lack of awareness.
• Time zone effects: Trading activity might be concentrated in a specific region or time window, leading to skewed metrics.

These scenarios suggest that even though volume has broken out, the underlying momentum from broader market sentiment might be missing.

Implications for Traders

Traders must interpret this divergence carefully. A surge in volume typically signals strength or weakness depending on the direction of price movement. However, if the turnover rate remains low, it could mean that the rally lacks broad-based support.

• Price could stall quickly: Without consistent inflow of new buyers or sellers, the price may fail to sustain its upward or downward trajectory.
• False breakouts are common: Markets often see fake volume spikes designed to lure traders into positions before reversing sharply.
• Liquidity concerns arise: A sudden drop in liquidity after a volume surge can trap traders in unfavorable exit conditions.

Therefore, chasing such moves without further confirmation may expose traders to unnecessary risk.

How to Confirm Legitimacy of the Breakout

Before entering a trade based solely on volume breakout and low turnover, consider the following checks:

• Check order book depth: Look at the bid-ask spread and liquidity available at different price levels. A thin order book suggests weak support for the new price level.
• Analyze time and sales data: See whether the volume spike came from a few large orders or many smaller ones. Multiple small trades indicate organic participation.
• Observe candlestick patterns: Strong bullish or bearish candles accompanied by increasing open interest (if futures are involved) add credibility to the move.
• Cross-reference with on-chain metrics: Tools like Glassnode or Santiment can show wallet movements, exchange inflows/outflows, and accumulation trends.

These steps help filter noise from meaningful signals and prevent impulsive decisions.

Risk Management Considerations

Even if you decide to enter a position during such a scenario, risk control becomes critical:

• Use tight stop-losses: Given the potential instability of the move, placing stops close to entry helps limit losses.
• Avoid full position sizing: Allocate only a fraction of your capital until confirmation comes in.
• Monitor news flow: Sudden announcements or regulatory updates can explain or contradict the volume surge.
• Track derivatives funding rates: In perpetual futures markets, abnormal funding rates may signal speculative positioning rather than genuine demand.

Applying these precautions ensures that any exposure taken is calculated and does not jeopardize overall portfolio health.

When Chasing May Be Justified

There are cases where entering during a volume breakout with low turnover makes sense:

• Fundamental catalysts exist: If a major partnership, protocol upgrade, or listing announcement coincides with the volume jump, the move may have legs.
• Historical precedent exists: Some altcoins experience sudden surges after long dormancy due to coordinated marketing or whale accumulation.
• Technical structure supports continuation: Key resistance levels breaking cleanly with expanding volume (even if turnover is low) sometimes precede strong rallies.

Still, these justifications require thorough analysis beyond surface-level indicators.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: What tools can I use to check real trading volume versus fake volume?

You can use platforms like CoinGecko Trust Score, CoinMarketCap Verified Exchanges, or DappRadar for reliable volume data. These services filter out exchanges known for wash trading and provide adjusted volume figures.

Q2: How do I differentiate between whale-driven volume and retail-driven volume?

By analyzing blockchain explorers and exchange order books, you can observe whether trades come from a few large wallets or multiple smaller accounts. On-chain analytics platforms like Glassnode offer tools to track large holder behavior.

Q3: Can low turnover with high volume occur in both uptrends and downtrends?

Yes, this pattern can appear in either direction. For example, during a sharp sell-off, a single whale dumping holdings can cause high volume but low turnover if no one else is actively selling alongside.

Q4: Is it safe to rely on volume alone for making trading decisions?

No, volume should always be used in conjunction with other indicators like price action, liquidity analysis, and market sentiment. Relying solely on volume increases the likelihood of misinterpreting market conditions.