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In a world awash with liquidity, and considering that global M2 usually puts in a high around 70 days ahead of Bitcoin, it is no surprise to see the cryptocurrency's directional correlation with the liquidity measure return to the spotlight once again.

在一个充满流动性的世界中，考虑到Global M2通常比比特币提前70天左右投入了高度，因此看到加密货币与流动性措施再次重新升高到焦点也就不足为奇了。

As the apex cryptocurrency fell to $78,000, converging with M2’s downward drift, and coming within $8,000 of the liquidity measure’s projected path, their movements are again closely aligned despite a few months of divergence fueled in part by a strong US dollar.

随着Apex加密货币跌至78,000美元，与M2的下降汇聚，并在流动性措施预计的道路的8,000美元内，尽管几个月以强劲的美元助长了几个月的分歧。

This cyclical movement continues to highlight Bitcoin’s ongoing responsiveness to fluctuations in liquidity, even as other fundamental factors, like the newly announced US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), have taken center stage.

这一周期性运动继续强调比特币对流动性波动的持续反应，尽管其他基本因素（如新宣布的美国战略比特币储备（SBR））也占据了中心地位。

Global M2 Correlation And Bitcoin Market Inefficiency

全球M2相关性和比特币市场效率低下

In his latest research note, analyst Joe Consorti highlighted that “Bitcoin’s directional correlation with global M2 has tightened again,” suggesting that price remains heavily swayed by money supply trends.

分析师乔·科斯蒂（Joe Consorti）在他的最新研究报告中强调说：“比特币与全球M2的方向相关性再次加剧，”这表明价格仍然受到货币供应趋势的严重影响。

“This isn’t a new observation; however, it becomes particularly interesting given that we’ve seen a few months where the correlation weakened somewhat, especially as the US dollar continues to exert strength, which in turn is putting downward pressure on global M2 when converted into dollar terms.”

“这不是一个新的观察；但是，考虑到几个月的相关性有所削弱，尤其是当美元继续发挥力量时，这变得特别有趣，这反过来又对全球M2施加了向下压力。”

Despite that drag, Bitcoin appears to be following the general liquidity blueprint it has tracked throughout this cycle, suggesting that the apex cryptocurrency’s price still largely hinges on major macro forces like central bank expansions and contractions.

尽管有这种阻力，但比特币似乎正在遵循它在整个周期中所追踪的一般流动性蓝图，这表明Apex加密货币的价格仍然在很大程度上取决于中央银行扩张和收缩等主要宏观力量。

“While this relationship isn’t a direct cause-and-effect mechanism, it continues to provide a useful macro framework. In a world where money supply, balance sheet capacity, and credit are perpetually expanding, bitcoin is the ultimate monetary asset. As global money supply expands, bitcoin tends to follow it, at least directionally.”

“尽管这种关系不是直接的因果机制，但它继续提供有用的宏观框架。在货币供应，资产负债表能力和信贷永久扩大的世界中，比特币是最终的货币资产。随着全球货币供应的扩大，比特币倾向于至少在方向上遵循它。”

He added: “The takeaway? Bitcoin remains the ultimate monetary asset in a world where money supply, balance sheet capacity, and credit are perpetually expanding. As global money supply expands, bitcoin tends to follow it, at least directionally. But this cycle is seeing additional variables that make M2 a less reliable standalone indicator, such as the US dollar being historically strong, creating a drag on global M2 denominated in USD, and more accurate measures of money supply and liquidity coming onto the scene.”

他补充说：“要点？在货币供应，资产负债表容量和信贷永远扩大的世界中，比特币仍然是最终的货币资产。随着全球货币供应的扩大，比特币倾向于至少在方向上遵循它。但是这个周期正在看到其他变量，使M2成为不太可靠的独立指标，例如美元历史上强劲，对以美元计价的全球M2造成阻力，并更准确地衡量了货币供应和流动性的衡量标准。”

Although macro conditions are exerting familiar pressure, the market’s reaction to the SBR announcement has been perplexing. After the US President Donald Trump formally declared plans to accumulate Bitcoin through a “budget-neutral” mechanism, the price tumbled 8.5% in just under a week.

尽管宏观条件正在施加熟悉的压力，但市场对SBR公告的反应一直令人困惑。在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）正式宣布计划通过“预算中立”机制积累比特币的计划后，价格在不到一周的时间内跌倒了8.5％。

Consorti described the sell-off as “an irrational reaction highlighting major inefficiencies in pricing Bitcoin’s geopolitical importance.”

Consorti将抛售描述为“非理性的反应，强调了比特币的地缘政治重要性的主要效率低下。”

Executive Order 14233 mandates Treasury and Commerce officials to grow America’s BTC holdings—currently at 198,109 BTC—without new taxpayer cost or congressional oversight. This is a stark contrast to previous government-level adoptions, such as El Salvador’s legal tender move, which coincided with a surge in Bitcoin’s price.

行政命令14233要求财政部和商务官员在没有新的纳税人成本或国会监督的情况下发展美国的BTC持有量（目前为198,109 BTC）。这与以前的政府级收养形成了鲜明的对比，例如萨尔瓦多的法定招标举动，这与比特币的价格上涨相吻合。

Consorti attributes the disparity to short-term profit taking and a “sell-the-news” mentality, adding that “the magnitude of the selloff indicates a complete failure to price in the long-term implications.”

Counsorti将差距归因于短期利润的谋利润和“卖新的”心态，并补充说：“抛售的幅度表明，长期含义完全无法定价。”

Despite the SBR-related dip, Bitcoin’s technical signals suggest a possible local bottom forming. The cryptocurrency dipped to $77,000 before bouncing back, filling a low-volume gap in the $76,000–$86,000 range. Buyers seized on the retracement, converging to form two hammer candlesticks on the weekly chart.

尽管与SBR相关的DIP，比特币的技术信号表明可能形成了局部底部。加密货币降至77,000美元，然后弹回，填补了76,000美元至86,000美元的低容量差距。买家抓住了回溯，在每周图表上融合，形成两个锤子烛台。

Hammer candlesticks typically point to a reversal, especially when they appear at cycle-defining support levels. According to Consorti, “Historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin forms these patterns at cycle turning points… The last time we saw this exact price structure was during the tail end of Bitcoin’s summer 2024 consolidation, two months before it surged from $57,000 to $108,000.”

Hammer烛台通常指向逆转，尤其是当它们以自行车定义的支持水平出现时。根据Consorti的说法，“历史先例表明比特币在周期转折点形成这些模式……我们上次看到这种确切的价格结构是在比特币2024年夏季合并的尾部结束时，两个月的时间从57,000美元飙升至108,000美元。”

A notable trend amid these price fluctuations is Bitcoin’s rising dominance, even during periods of market contraction. ETH/BTC recently sank to 0.0227—its lowest since May 2020—suggesting intensifying skepticism toward altcoins.

这些价格波动的一个显着趋势是比特币的统治地位，即使在市场收缩期间也是如此。 ETH/BTC最近沉没至0.0227，这是自2020年5月以来最低的，这加剧了对AltCoins的怀疑。

Meanwhile, institutional demand for Ethereum has likewise slumped, as evidenced by a 56.8% drop in the AUM ratio for Ethereum vs. Bitcoin.

同时，对以太坊的机构需求同样崩溃了，这证明了以太坊与比特币的AUM比率下降了56.8％。

“This cycle belongs to Bitcoin, and all future cycles will only further cement this reality,” Consorti stated. He suggests altcoins are fighting an uphill battle as Bitcoin-centric narratives gain global traction.

Consorti说：“这个周期属于比特币，所有未来的周期只会进一步巩固这一现实。”他建议，随着以比特币为中心的叙述获得全球吸引力，Altcoins正在与一场艰苦的战斗。

At press time, BTC traded at $82,875.

发稿时，BTC的交易价格为82,875美元。