黄金和比特币暴跌：应对 2026 年资产的波动格局

通常被视为避风港的黄金和比特币是今年表现最差的。本分析深入探讨了意外的经济低迷及其对 2026 年资产的影响。

Gold and Bitcoin Lagging Behind in 2026 Asset Performance

2026 年资产表现黄金和比特币落后

New York, NY – In an unusual turn of events, both gold and Bitcoin have emerged as the two worst-performing major asset classes year-to-date in 2026, a phenomenon not seen in data stretching back to 2011. This surprising slump comes as rising oil prices and a renewed expectation for tighter monetary policy have overshadowed assets that recently thrived on concerns about debt, deficits, and currency debasement.

纽约 — — 事态发生了不寻常的转变，黄金和比特币成为 2026 年迄今为止表现最差的两种主要资产类别，这种现象在自 2011 年以来的数据中从未出现过。这种令人惊讶的暴跌发生之际，油价上涨和对收紧货币政策的新预期给最近因债务、赤字和货币贬值担忧而蓬勃发展的资产蒙上了阴影。

The Unexpected Downturn

意外的经济衰退

Data compiled by Charlie Bilello, Chief Market Strategist at Creative Planning, revealed that as of October 23rd, gold had seen a year-to-date decline of 7.5%, with Bitcoin close behind at 7.3%. Since then, both have experienced further retreats, with gold now down approximately 10% and Bitcoin over 11%. This places them at the bottom of the 21 major asset classes tracked in Bilello's annual rankings, marking a unique instance where the precious metal and the largest cryptocurrency simultaneously occupy the last two positions.

Creative Planning 首席市场策略师 Charlie Bilello 整理的数据显示，截至 10 月 23 日，黄金年初至今已下跌 7.5%，比特币紧随其后，跌幅为 7.3%。此后，两者都经历了进一步的回落，黄金目前下跌了约 10%，比特币则下跌了 11% 以上。这使得它们在 Bilello 年度排名中追踪的 21 个主要资产类别中垫底，这标志着贵金属和最大的加密货币同时占据最后两个位置的独特实例。

The contrast with other markets is stark. Commodities have surged over 50% this year, US large-cap stocks are up more than 12%, and even short-term Treasury bills have delivered nearly a 3% return. Gold's reversal has been particularly dramatic; after gaining 64% in 2025 and hitting an all-time high of $5,500 per ounce in late January 2026, it has since erased those gains, briefly dipping below $4,000/oz.

与其他市场形成鲜明对比。今年大宗商品涨幅超过50%，美国大盘股涨幅超过12%，甚至短期国债也带来了近3%的回报。黄金的逆转尤其引人注目。在 2025 年上涨 64% 并于 2026 年 1 月下旬触及每盎司 5,500 美元的历史高点后，此后已经抹去了这些涨幅，短暂跌破 4,000 美元/盎司。

Shifting Market Narratives

不断变化的市场叙事

The current performance is striking given that just months ago, gold and Bitcoin moved in tandem for the opposite reason. In August, both assets rallied as concerns about the US debt burden and a weakening dollar fueled the “debasement trade” – investors buying scarce assets to hedge against declining fiat currency purchasing power. At that time, gold neared $4,600, and BTC saw a significant surge.

鉴于就在几个月前，黄金和比特币出于相反的原因同步波动，目前的表现令人震惊。 8 月份，由于对美国债务负担和美元疲软的担忧加剧了“贬值交易”——投资者购买稀缺资产以对冲法定货币购买力下降，两种资产均出现上涨。当时黄金逼近4600美元，BTC出现大幅飙升。

However, the macro backdrop has shifted considerably. Gold dropped 4% last week amid surging oil prices and heightened inflation concerns, pushing markets to anticipate further Federal Reserve tightening. ING noted that gold failed to benefit from falling equities and lower Treasury yields, as investors focused more on the inflationary implications of expensive energy. For non-yielding assets like gold and Bitcoin, higher interest rates make cash and government debt more attractive alternatives.

然而，宏观背景已经发生了很大变化。由于油价飙升和通胀担忧加剧，金价上周下跌 4%，促使市场预期美联储将进一步收紧政策。 ING指出，黄金未能从股市下跌和国债收益率下降中受益，因为投资者更多地关注昂贵能源的通胀影响。对于黄金和比特币等非收益资产来说，较高的利率使现金和政府债务成为更具吸引力的选择。

Bitcoin's Volatility and ETF Flows

比特币的波动性和 ETF 流量

Adding to the volatility, Bitcoin recently struggled to maintain momentum above $77,000 on October 31st, following a significant security breach at Binance. This incident led to substantial cryptocurrency liquidations and a surge in withdrawals from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. On October 30th, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of approximately $643.33 million, with BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC seeing significant redemptions. This reversal ended a four-day streak of inflows and signaled a shift towards caution among large investors.

在币安发生重大安全漏洞后，比特币最近在 10 月 31 日难以维持在 77,000 美元以上的势头，这加剧了波动性。这一事件导致大量加密货币清算以及美国现货比特币 ETF 的提款激增。 10月30日，美国现货比特币ETF净流出约6.4333亿美元，贝莱德的IBIT和富达的FBTC出现大量赎回。这一逆转结束了连续四天的资金流入，并标志着大型投资者转向谨慎。

The recent price dip below $77,000 was accompanied by $1.53 billion in liquidated leveraged crypto positions. Technical analysts suggest Bitcoin's near-term outlook depends on its ability to hold support above $76,000. A break lower could expose the $75,000 and $73,000 levels.

最近价格跌破 77,000 美元，伴随着 15.3 亿美元的杠杆加密头寸清算。技术分析师表示，比特币的近期前景取决于其将支撑位保持在 76,000 美元上方的能力。跌破可能会暴露 75,000 美元和 73,000 美元的水平。

Long-Term Perspective vs. Short-Term Woes

长期视角与短期困境

Despite the current headwinds, a longer-term comparison paints a different picture. Bilello's data indicates that since 2011, Bitcoin has returned approximately 120.6% annualized, while gold's gains stand at 6.3% over the same period. This highlights the long-term growth potential of Bitcoin, even amidst its current short-term struggles.

尽管目前存在阻力，但长期比较却描绘出不同的景象。 Bilello的数据显示，自2011年以来，比特币的年化回报率约为120.6%，而同期黄金的涨幅为6.3%。这凸显了比特币的长期增长潜力，即使在目前的短期困境中也是如此。

So, while gold and Bitcoin might be having a bit of a rough patch in 2026, it’s a reminder that markets are always on the move. Who knows what the rest of the year will bring? Perhaps a comeback worthy of a blockbuster movie!

因此，虽然黄金和比特币在 2026 年可能会遇到一些困难，但这提醒人们市场总是在变化。谁知道今年剩下的时间会带来什么？也许值得拍一部大片的回归！