為什麼你能相信這個新聞

嚴格的編輯政策，側重於準確性，相關性和公正性

In a world awash with liquidity, and considering that global M2 usually puts in a high around 70 days ahead of Bitcoin, it is no surprise to see the cryptocurrency's directional correlation with the liquidity measure return to the spotlight once again.

在一個充滿流動性的世界中，考慮到Global M2通常比比特幣提前70天左右投入了高度，因此看到加密貨幣與流動性措施再次重新升高到焦點也就不足為奇了。

As the apex cryptocurrency fell to $78,000, converging with M2’s downward drift, and coming within $8,000 of the liquidity measure’s projected path, their movements are again closely aligned despite a few months of divergence fueled in part by a strong US dollar.

隨著Apex加密貨幣跌至78,000美元，與M2的下降匯聚，並在流動性措施預計的道路的8,000美元內，儘管幾個月以強勁的美元助長了幾個月的分歧。

This cyclical movement continues to highlight Bitcoin’s ongoing responsiveness to fluctuations in liquidity, even as other fundamental factors, like the newly announced US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), have taken center stage.

這一周期性運動繼續強調比特幣對流動性波動的持續反應，儘管其他基本因素（如新宣布的美國戰略比特幣儲備（SBR））也佔據了中心地位。

Global M2 Correlation And Bitcoin Market Inefficiency

全球M2相關性和比特幣市場效率低下

In his latest research note, analyst Joe Consorti highlighted that “Bitcoin’s directional correlation with global M2 has tightened again,” suggesting that price remains heavily swayed by money supply trends.

分析師喬·科斯蒂（Joe Consorti）在他的最新研究報告中強調說：“比特幣與全球M2的方向相關性再次加劇，”這表明價格仍然受到貨幣供應趨勢的嚴重影響。

“This isn’t a new observation; however, it becomes particularly interesting given that we’ve seen a few months where the correlation weakened somewhat, especially as the US dollar continues to exert strength, which in turn is putting downward pressure on global M2 when converted into dollar terms.”

“這不是一個新的觀察；但是，考慮到幾個月的相關性有所削弱，尤其是當美元繼續發揮力量時，這變得特別有趣，這反過來又對全球M2施加了向下壓力。”

Despite that drag, Bitcoin appears to be following the general liquidity blueprint it has tracked throughout this cycle, suggesting that the apex cryptocurrency’s price still largely hinges on major macro forces like central bank expansions and contractions.

儘管有這種阻力，但比特幣似乎正在遵循它在整個週期中所追踪的一般流動性藍圖，這表明Apex加密貨幣的價格仍然在很大程度上取決於中央銀行擴張和收縮等主要宏觀力量。

“While this relationship isn’t a direct cause-and-effect mechanism, it continues to provide a useful macro framework. In a world where money supply, balance sheet capacity, and credit are perpetually expanding, bitcoin is the ultimate monetary asset. As global money supply expands, bitcoin tends to follow it, at least directionally.”

“儘管這種關係不是直接的因果機制，但它繼續提供有用的宏觀框架。在貨幣供應，資產負債表能力和信貸永久擴大的世界中，比特幣是最終的貨幣資產。隨著全球貨幣供應的擴大，比特幣傾向於至少在方向上遵循它。”

He added: “The takeaway? Bitcoin remains the ultimate monetary asset in a world where money supply, balance sheet capacity, and credit are perpetually expanding. As global money supply expands, bitcoin tends to follow it, at least directionally. But this cycle is seeing additional variables that make M2 a less reliable standalone indicator, such as the US dollar being historically strong, creating a drag on global M2 denominated in USD, and more accurate measures of money supply and liquidity coming onto the scene.”

他補充說：“要點？在貨幣供應，資產負債表容量和信貸永遠擴大的世界中，比特幣仍然是最終的貨幣資產。隨著全球貨幣供應的擴大，比特幣傾向於至少在方向上遵循它。但是這個週期正在看到其他變量，使M2成為不太可靠的獨立指標，例如美元歷史上強勁，對以美元計價的全球M2造成阻力，並更準確地衡量了貨幣供應和流動性的衡量標準。”

Although macro conditions are exerting familiar pressure, the market’s reaction to the SBR announcement has been perplexing. After the US President Donald Trump formally declared plans to accumulate Bitcoin through a “budget-neutral” mechanism, the price tumbled 8.5% in just under a week.

儘管宏觀條件正在施加熟悉的壓力，但市場對SBR公告的反應一直令人困惑。在美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）正式宣布計劃通過“預算中立”機制積累比特幣的計劃後，價格在不到一周的時間內跌倒了8.5％。

Consorti described the sell-off as “an irrational reaction highlighting major inefficiencies in pricing Bitcoin’s geopolitical importance.”

Consorti將拋售描述為“非理性的反應，強調了比特幣的地緣政治重要性的主要效率低下。”

Executive Order 14233 mandates Treasury and Commerce officials to grow America’s BTC holdings—currently at 198,109 BTC—without new taxpayer cost or congressional oversight. This is a stark contrast to previous government-level adoptions, such as El Salvador’s legal tender move, which coincided with a surge in Bitcoin’s price.

行政命令14233要求財政部和商務官員在沒有新的納稅人成本或國會監督的情況下發展美國的BTC持有量（目前為198,109 BTC）。這與以前的政府級收養形成了鮮明的對比，例如薩爾瓦多的法定招標舉動，這與比特幣的價格上漲相吻合。

Consorti attributes the disparity to short-term profit taking and a “sell-the-news” mentality, adding that “the magnitude of the selloff indicates a complete failure to price in the long-term implications.”

Counsorti將差距歸因於短期利潤的謀利潤和“賣新的”心態，並補充說：“拋售的幅度表明，長期含義完全無法定價。”

Despite the SBR-related dip, Bitcoin’s technical signals suggest a possible local bottom forming. The cryptocurrency dipped to $77,000 before bouncing back, filling a low-volume gap in the $76,000–$86,000 range. Buyers seized on the retracement, converging to form two hammer candlesticks on the weekly chart.

儘管與SBR相關的DIP，比特幣的技術信號表明可能形成了局部底部。加密貨幣降至77,000美元，然後彈回，填補了76,000美元至86,000美元的低容量差距。買家抓住了回溯，在每週圖表上融合，形成兩個錘子燭台。

Hammer candlesticks typically point to a reversal, especially when they appear at cycle-defining support levels. According to Consorti, “Historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin forms these patterns at cycle turning points… The last time we saw this exact price structure was during the tail end of Bitcoin’s summer 2024 consolidation, two months before it surged from $57,000 to $108,000.”

Hammer燭台通常指向逆轉，尤其是當它們以自行車定義的支持水平出現時。根據Consorti的說法，“歷史先例表明比特幣在周期轉折點形成這些模式……我們上次看到這種確切的價格結構是在比特幣2024年夏季合併的尾部結束時，兩個月的時間從57,000美元飆升至108,000美元。”

A notable trend amid these price fluctuations is Bitcoin’s rising dominance, even during periods of market contraction. ETH/BTC recently sank to 0.0227—its lowest since May 2020—suggesting intensifying skepticism toward altcoins.

這些價格波動的一個顯著趨勢是比特幣的統治地位，即使在市場收縮期間也是如此。 ETH/BTC最近沉沒至0.0227，這是自2020年5月以來最低的，這加劇了對AltCoins的懷疑。

Meanwhile, institutional demand for Ethereum has likewise slumped, as evidenced by a 56.8% drop in the AUM ratio for Ethereum vs. Bitcoin.

同時，對以太坊的機構需求同樣崩潰了，這證明了以太坊與比特幣的AUM比率下降了56.8％。

“This cycle belongs to Bitcoin, and all future cycles will only further cement this reality,” Consorti stated. He suggests altcoins are fighting an uphill battle as Bitcoin-centric narratives gain global traction.

Consorti說：“這個週期屬於比特幣，所有未來的周期只會進一步鞏固這一現實。”他建議，隨著以比特幣為中心的敘述獲得全球吸引力，Altcoins正在與一場艱苦的戰鬥。

At press time, BTC traded at $82,875.

發稿時，BTC的交易價格為82,875美元。