加密货币接近 10 万美元，现在是购买比特币的好时机吗？

随着加密货币继续创下历史新高，比特币（BTC 1.47%）爱好者们欣喜若狂。

Bitcoin (BTC 1.47%) enthusiasts are celebrating as the cryptocurrency continues to set new all-time highs. Earlier this month, it surpassed its long-held high of just under $74,000 and, in a few short weeks, it's up more than 25%. Priced at $100,000 — a target many investors could once only dream about — is squarely within striking distance as I'm writing this on November 20.

比特币（BTC 1.47%）爱好者正在庆祝这种加密货币继续创下新的历史高点。本月早些时候，它突破了长期持有的略低于 74,000 美元的高点，并在短短几周内上涨了 25% 以上。当我在 11 月 20 日撰写本文时，10 万美元的定价——许多投资者曾经梦想的目标——已经近在眼前。

The timing of this run is hardly a coincidence, or so it would seem. The president-elect and his incoming administration are considered to be very friendly to Bitcoin and crypto as a whole. Investors are hoping he delivers on his campaign promises. What his actual policies will be here remains to be seen. But he has indeed signaled a pro-crypto approach, going as far as to say he intends to make America the "crypto capital of the world."

这次竞选的时机绝非巧合，至少看起来如此。当选总统和他即将上任的政府被认为对比特币和加密货币整体非常友好。投资者希望他兑现竞选承诺。他的实际政策将是什么还有待观察。但他确实发出了支持加密货币的信号，甚至表示他打算让美国成为“世界加密货币之都”。

So, with Bitcoin nearing the $100,000 mark and "crypto euphoria" in full swing, is now a good time to buy?

那么，随着比特币接近 10 万美元大关，“加密货币狂热”如火如荼，现在是买入的好时机吗？

Spot ETFs were a game changer

现货 ETF 改变了游戏规则

In January, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Bitcoin spot ETFs, enabling asset management giants like BlackRock to start offering these products. This decision significantly broadened market access for investors large and small.

一月份，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 批准了比特币现货 ETF，使贝莱德等资产管理巨头能够开始提供这些产品。这一决定大大拓宽了大大小小的投资者的市场准入。

These ETFs are traded through traditional brokerages the same way you would buy and sell shares of Apple, removing the complexities involved in trading through crypto exchanges. The ETFs are strictly regulated by the SEC, adding a layer of trust and legitimacy that has broadened the type of investor interested in Bitcoin.

这些 ETF 通过传统经纪公司进行交易，就像买卖苹果股票一样，消除了通过加密货币交易所进行交易的复杂性。 ETF 受到 SEC 的严格监管，增加了一层信任和合法性，扩大了对比特币感兴趣的投资者类型。

The ETFs have spurred a wave of investment from institutional investors. Aside from the regulatory stamp of approval and ease of access, ETFs provide enhanced liquidity and lead to an "efficient" market in which the price of Bitcoin more accurately reflects its true value. This is a critical component for most investors of this kind.

ETF引发了机构投资者的投资热潮。除了获得监管批准和易于使用之外，ETF 还提供增强的流动性，并形成一个“高效”的市场，使比特币的价格更准确地反映其真实价值。对于大多数此类投资者来说，这是一个关键组成部分。

Institutions are necessary for Bitcoin's long-term success

制度对于比特币的长期成功是必要的

For Bitcoin to continue to grow, it needs to do so at a rate that justifies the perceived risk in the eyes of investors. Although the introduction of ETFs and the influx of institutional capital over the last few years has reduced that perception of risk, at least for now, it's still considered a more risky place to park your money than stocks. That means it needs to offer growth that outpaces the stock market, and the only way it can grow at that pace is if a whole lot more capital is invested.

比特币要继续增长，其增长速度必须能够证明投资者认为存在的风险是合理的。尽管过去几年ETF的引入和机构资本的涌入降低了人们对风险的认知，但至少目前而言，它仍然被认为是比股票更危险的资金存放场所。这意味着它需要提供超过股票市场的增长，而以这种速度增长的唯一方法是投入更多的资本。

Bitcoin has come a long way in broadening its base of investors, but it still remains a somewhat niche market. Less than 15% of adults own a digital asset while nearly two-thirds of Americans own stocks. There is still a lot of fear; 63% of U.S. adults say they are not very or not at all confident that crypto is safe.

比特币在扩大投资者基础方面已经取得了长足的进步，但它仍然是一个小众市场。不到 15% 的成年人拥有数字资产，而近三分之二的美国人拥有股票。仍然有很多恐惧； 63% 的美国成年人表示，他们对加密货币的安全性不太有信心或根本没有信心。

Interestingly, despite their comparatively late buy-in, a much higher share of institutional investors have exposure — about 60% have at least 1% of their assets invested. It seems to me that it will be an easier sell for those institutions to increase their exposure by 1 or 2 percentage points, than for a significant portion of the retail market to change their views on Bitcoin. But 1% to 2% represents a huge amount of capital and may bring the growth needed to push the more cautious retail investors into the market.

有趣的是，尽管机构投资者的买入相对较晚，但持有风险敞口的机构投资者比例却要高得多——约 60% 的机构投资者至少将其资产的 1% 进行了投资。在我看来，对于这些机构来说，将其风险敞口增加 1 或 2 个百分点，比零售市场的很大一部分改变对比特币的看法更容易。但1%到2%代表着​​巨额资金，可能会带来推动更为谨慎的散户投资者进入市场所需的增长。

The question at hand

手头的问题

Warren Buffett famously said that investors should aim "to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful." With Bitcoin smashing records and nearing $100,000, it seems that greed has overtaken the market and now might be a good time to hold off.

沃伦·巴菲特有句名言，投资者应该致力于“当别人贪婪时我要恐惧，只有当别人恐惧时我要贪婪”。随着比特币打破记录并接近 10 万美元，贪婪似乎已经席卷了市场，现在可能是推迟的好时机。

That's a reasonable interpretation and if you are a more risk-averse investor, it could be the right move. No one wants to buy in at the top, right?

这是一个合理的解释，如果您是一个更厌恶风险的投资者，那么这可能是正确的举动。没有人愿意在顶部买入，对吗？

However, given the nearly two-thirds of Americans who are still fearful of crypto, perhaps we are still in the "when others are fearful" paradigm. Sure, buying in at the bottom will always be the best case. The problem is you and I are pretty bad at knowing just when that is. It's entirely possible to wait for a crash that never comes. And here's the thing — over time, the penalty for buying in at the very top of bull runs isn't as big as you might think. Over the last 70 years, if you bought in each time the S&P 500 hit an all-time high, you would only return about 1% less than if you spread that investment out over time.

然而，考虑到近三分之二的美国人仍然害怕加密货币，也许我们仍然处于“当其他人害怕时”的范式。当然，在底部买入永远是最好的情况。问题是你和我都不知道那是什么时候。完全有可能等待永远不会发生的崩溃。事情是这样的——随着时间的推移，在牛市最高点买入的惩罚并不像你想象的那么大。在过去 70 年里，如果您每次在标准普尔 500 指数创下历史新高时买入，您的回报率只会比随着时间的推移分散投资时少 1% 左右。

If you had bought at the last time Bitcoin hit a multi-year peak, in November of 2021, you would currently be up nearly 50%. That would be almost twice the return of the S&P 500 over the same period.

如果您是在 2021 年 11 月比特币达到多年峰值时购买的，那么目前的价格将上涨近 50%。这几乎是同期标准普尔 500 指数回报率的两倍。