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加密货币新闻

5月1日,MSTR的收入将于5月1日发布。我上周四(这里和这里)的早间媒体停止了预览。

2025/05/06 01:13

我们不谈论股票,所以我计划缩小并击中主题。在准备时,我不得不抑制MSTR触发的眼睛反射。

5月1日,MSTR的收入将于5月1日发布。我上周四(这里和这里)的早间媒体停止了预览。

Earning a place in the annals of market history, MSTR – the ticker symbol for MicroStrategy (or Strategy, as the company is now known) – announced first-quarter earnings on May 1.

MSTR(MicroStrategy的股票符号)(或该公司现在已知的战略)在“市场历史纪录”中占有一席之地 - 于5月1日宣布了第一季度的收益。

My morning media stops last Thursday (here and here) asked for a preview of the company’s earnings.

上周四(这里和这里)我的早晨媒体停止了该公司收入的预览。

Now, we don’t talk about stocks, so I planned to zoom out and hit themes. While preparing, I had to suppress the eye-roll reflexes that MSTR triggers.

现在,我们不谈论股票,所以我计划放大并击中主题。在准备时,我不得不抑制MSTR触发的眼睛反射。

Here are three questions:

这是三个问题:

1. Earnings? MSTR “earnings” and “price targets” are … well, they don’t really mean the same thing, especially once the effect of ASC 2023-08 is backed out. It’s just the price of bitcoin and financing, plain and simple. Wall Street analysts and pundits should get that right.

1。收入? MSTR“收益”和“价格目标”是……嗯,它们并不是同样的意思,尤其是一旦ASC 2023-08的效果备份。这只是比特币和融资的价格,简单而简单。华尔街分析师和专家应该做对了。

2. Strategy? You can’t just say, “Strategy.” You have to say, “Strategy; you know, it used to be Microstrategy.” Like Prince, Puff Daddy, Kanye West and Twitter. (NB: People say “strategy” (small “s”) a lot already.)

2.策略?您不能只是说“策略”。您必须说:“策略;您知道,它曾经是微纹理。”像Prince,Puff Daddy,Kanye West和Twitter一样。 (NB:人们已经说“策略”(小“ S”)已经很多了。)

3. Don’t be a hater?MSTR supports a market cap of $107b with bitcoin holdings of $53b and laser-eyed goodwill. No lifeboat, no parachute, no apparent Plan B. If it fails, the bitcoin market could take the blame.

3。不要仇恨MSTR支持107B $ 107B的市值,比特币持有量为53B美元和激光眼睛的商誉。没有救生艇,没有降落伞,没有明显的计划。如果失败,比特币市场可能会受到责任。

Those eye-rollers (and some obsequious media coverage) notwithstanding, we can agree that:

尽管如此,我们可以同意的那些眼卷(以及一些卑鄙的媒体报道),但我们可以同意:

* The capital raises are truly awesome. The Force is strong in this one.

*资本加薪真的很棒。力量在这一力量中很强。

* MSTR is up 36% on the year, compared to less than 5% for bitcoin. Who am I to throw stones?

* MSTR在这一年中增长了36%,而比特币则不到5%。我是谁扔石头?

* MSTR cleverly uses stock price volatility as a feature, not a bug, for (1) issuing mouth-watering converts, (2) attracting listed options volume, and (3) corporate “yield” strategies. (Just please stop calling option-selling a “yield strategy.” And I said “strategy” again. Small “s”.)

* MSTR巧妙地将股票价格波动作为功能,而不是错误,因为(1)发行令人垂涎的转换符,(2)吸引列出的期权量,以及(3)公司“产量”策略。 (请停止将选项销售为“收益策略”。我再次说“策略”。小“ S”。)

* The preferreds (STRK and STRF) hit the mark with some folks who like preferreds. Some of my preferreds friends are smitten.

*首选(Strk和Strf)与一些喜欢偏爱的人达到了印记。我喜欢的一些朋友被迷住了。

MSTR created a movement

MSTR创建了一个运动

Strategy (large “S”) has not only created a movement, but a category. Levered MSTR ETFs (including this new one which pays “income”) serve the market for whom MSTR’s 70 vol is dull. Grayscale announced an ETF that tracks 30 companies that hold at least 100 bitcoin.

策略(大“ S”)不仅创造了一个运动,而且创造了一个类别。杠杆MSTRETF(包括支付“收入”的新的)为MSTR的70 Vol乏味的市场提供服务。 Grayscale宣布了一个ETF,该ETF追踪了30家拥有至少100个比特币的公司。

Last, but not least, Cantor Equity Partners, a SPAC, is merging to form Twenty One Capital, which will hold $3 billion of bitcoin. Mention this trend in a room full of pundits and they’ll yell “Gamestop!” in unison. It’s fun.

最后但并非最不重要的一点是,一个SPAC Cantor Equity Partners合并成21个资本,该资本将持有30亿美元的比特币。在一个充满专家的房间里提及这种趋势,他们会大喊“ GameStop!”异口同声。很有趣。

Now, all of this is interesting. Adding bitcoin to the treasury of non-crypto companies* is an interesting trend. (And that doesn’t include crypto-native companies, like CoinDesk’s parent company, Bullish.)

现在,所有这些都很有趣。将比特币添加到非克雷普托公司的财政部*是一个有趣的趋势。 (这不包括Coindesk的母公司Bullish等加密本地公司。)

But it’s only bitcoin at the moment.

但这只是比特币。

Despite the loosening of U.S. regulatory zip-ties on digital assets and the recent flurry of ETF filings, bitcoin still dominates the conversation (it still accounts for about two-thirds of the total cryptocurrency market).

尽管美国对数字资产的监管邮政编码放松了,而最近的ETF文件仍在统治,但比特币仍然占主导地位(它仍然占总加密货币市场的三分之二)。

Again, that’s fine if we are talking about a store-of-value asset contributing to a corporate treasury otherwise allocated to cash and treasuries. However, the growing number of flavors of bitcoin exposure – leverege, yield, optionality, protection – are taking the place of education about what other blockchain assets hope to deliver, and why it is important to spend more time thinking about the asset class.

同样,如果我们谈论的是为公司财政部造成的价值存储资产,否则就可以分配给现金和财政部。但是,越来越多的比特币风味(杠杆,产量,选择性,保护)吸引了教育地位,以了解其他区块链希望提供的东西,以及为什么要花更多的时间花更多的时间思考资产类别。

Until recently, that was fruitless for many investors and advisors, since brokerage- or futures- account implementation was not available. (Of course, it has been for ETH, but you need more than ETH to think about the “digital asset class.” Lack of enthusiasm for ETH investment vehicles, we believe, has struggled in part for this reason.)

直到最近,对于许多投资者和顾问来说,这都是徒劳的,因为尚无经纪或期货帐户实施。 (当然,这是针对ETH的,但是考虑到“数字资产类别”,您还需要更多的ETH。我们认为,缺乏对ETH投资工具的热情,因此由于这个原因而在某种程度上挣扎。)

If 2024 was bitcoin’s “coming out” year, we hope that 2025 gives investors and traders opportunities to think deeper and more broadly, and to implement accordingly. If not, the U.S. crypto investing narrative will start to sound like a “bitcoin maxi,” and that feels like leaving money on the table.

如果2024年是比特币的“出来”一年,我们希望2025年能为投资者和贸易商提供更深入思考和更广泛思考并相应实施的机会。如果没有,美国加密货币投资叙述听起来就像是“比特币的最大”,这感觉就像把钱放在桌子上。

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